2026-03-03 - INTU - Intuit Deep Dive

Article published Mar 3, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.

INTU Price Structure

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Conviction: High Status: Strong recovery — RSI ~49.6 (computed), price $433.35, +13.7% this week — major reversal

Quick Snapshot

Signal	Reading
Overall	🟡 RSI ~49.6 (computed from 19 OHLC entries) — fully returned to neutral. Price $433.35, +3.4% today, +13.7% this week, -2.8% 30D. SMA19 approx ~$403.50 — price now +7.4% ABOVE moving average. Tax season thesis playing out.
Moat	Wide (TurboTax monopoly, QuickBooks SMB dominance, Mailchimp marketing)
Key insight	Dramatic reversal since 02/26. Price surged from $389.33 to $433.35 (+11.3%) in ~5 days. The 30D has improved from -30.7% to -2.8% — a remarkable swing. RSI has normalized from extreme 17 (02/22) to neutral ~50. Tax season results appear to be the catalyst. The stock is now ABOVE its moving average for the first time since the selloff. 52wkHi gap closed from -30.7% to -2.8% (in-window high ~$445.64).

Action Matrix

Action	Level	Why
Current	🔒 Hold	RSI neutral, price above SMA. Up +11% from last dive. Not a new entry point — hold existing.
If not holding	🔍 Watch	RSI at 50 with stock up 11% — wait for RSI pullback to 35-45 before entering
Entry Zone	$400 - $425	Prior zone now BELOW current price
Stop-Loss	$370 (-15%)	Below key support
Target	$520 (+20%)	Recovery toward full recovery level

Extended analysis

Price Data

Stock	Price	1D	7D	30D	3M	52wkHi	RSI	Status	Action
INTU	$433.35	+3.4%	+13.7%	-2.8%	—	-2.8%	~50	🟡 Neutral	🔒 Hold

Note: RSI computed from 19 OHLC entries (~49.6). SMA20 field N/A in data; approximate 19-period average ~$403.50. 52wkHi based on in-window data ($445.64).

Price vs Last Deep Dive (02/26)

Metric	02/26	03/03	Change
Price	$389.33	$433.35	+$44.02 (+11.3%)
RSI	34.6	~49.6	+15.0 (normalized to neutral)
SMA20	$416.15	~$403.50 (approx)	SMA declined; price now ABOVE it
vs SMA	-6.5%	~+7.4%	Price crossed above SMA
30D	-30.7%	-2.8%	Massive improvement

Update from 02/26: Extraordinary recovery. INTU surged from $389.33 to $433.35 (+11.3%) with +13.7% in the past 7 days. The 30D went from -30.7% to -2.8% — nearly fully recovered. RSI normalized from 34.6 to ~49.6 (neutral). Price has crossed ABOVE the declining SMA20 for the first time since the selloff began. This is consistent with the tax season catalyst thesis: TurboTax filing season is producing strong results. The stock is no longer in the entry zone — existing holders should hold; new buyers should wait for a pullback.

Company Overview

One-Liner

Intuit is the dominant tax software (TurboTax) and SMB accounting (QuickBooks) provider with near-monopoly positions in both markets.

Business Model

Question	Answer
What they sell	TurboTax (consumer tax filing), QuickBooks (SMB accounting), Credit Karma (financial products), Mailchimp (marketing)
Who pays	Consumers (tax filing), SMBs (accounting/payroll), financial product seekers (Credit Karma)
Revenue model	Per-return fees (TurboTax), SaaS subscriptions (QuickBooks Online), lead-gen (Credit Karma)
How sticky	Very high — users return to TurboTax annually with prior years' data; QuickBooks embedded in SMB ops

Key Segments

Segment	Revenue %	Growth	Notes
Small Business (QuickBooks)	~55%	+18% YoY	QuickBooks Online, payroll, payments
Consumer (TurboTax)	~30%	+8% YoY	Seasonal Q2 concentration
Credit Karma	~10%	+20%+ YoY	Recovering with rate environment
ProTax	~5%	+5% YoY	CPA/accountant tools

Competitive Analysis

Competitive Moat

Moat Type	Present?	Evidence
Switching costs	🟢	Multi-year tax history locked in TurboTax; QuickBooks data migration cost
Intangible assets	🟢	TurboTax brand (#1 in consumer awareness), regulatory knowledge
Network effects	🟡	QuickBooks App ecosystem (700+ integrations), accountant network
Cost advantages	🟢	Scale across 40M+ annual TurboTax filers

Moat Width: Wide Moat Trend: Stable with AI risk (IRS Direct File, GenAI tax tools) worth monitoring

Key Risk: IRS Direct File

IRS expanded Direct File program in 2025 to all 50 states
Currently handles only simple returns (W-2 only, standard deductions)
INTU's core TurboTax serves complex filers — above Direct File's scope
Mitigation: TurboTax Live (human expert hybrid) growing rapidly

Bull Case

Why This Could Work

Tax season catalyst confirmed — +13.7% week = market is pricing in strong tax season results.
RSI 10.6 → 17.6 → 34.6 → ~50 — Full normalization from extreme to neutral in 2.5 weeks.
30D -30.7% → -2.8% — Near-full recovery in price terms; base effect is rolling off rapidly.
QuickBooks AI integration — GenAI bookkeeping assistant could expand SMB TAM.
Price above SMA — Technical trend has flipped from down to up.

Upside Scenario

If This Happens	Stock Could
Strong tax season results in May earnings	$500 (+15%) — re-rating on beat
QuickBooks AI drives SMB retention improvements	$550 (+27%)

Bear Case

What Could Go Wrong

IRS Direct File expansion — If Congress funds expansion to complex returns, TurboTax TAM shrinks.
AI disruption — New AI-native tax tools (H&R Block AI, new entrants) at lower price points.
Consumer recession — Fewer freelancers/gig workers file self-employed returns.
Credit Karma headwinds — Fintech slowdown, lower loan origination fees.

Thesis Killers

TurboTax market share declines >5% in one filing season
QuickBooks Online net churn goes negative
IRS Direct File expands to cover Schedule C (self-employed)

Entry Strategy

Technical Levels

Level	Price	Notes
Support 1	$416	Prior SMA20 resistance, now potential support
Support 2	$400	Psychological round number
Support 3	$370	Stop-loss zone
Resistance 1	$445.64	In-window 52wk high
Resistance 2	$500	Prior multi-year level
52-week high	~$562	Off-window estimate

Entry Approach

Strategy	Details
If holding	Hold above $370 stop; tax season thesis playing out
New entry	Wait for RSI pullback to 35-40 with price near $410-425
Add	Post-tax season if strong Q2 filing data (May earnings beat)
Full	RSI > 40 + above SMA confirmation (already achieved)

Research Log

Date	Update
2026-02-16	Created deep dive. RSI 10.6 extreme. $399.40. Action: Strong Buy. Tax season catalyst.
2026-02-22	Price refresh. $380.55 (-4.7%). RSI 17.6 (improved from 10.6 but still extreme). 7D -4.8%. 30D -27.5%, 3M -42.5%, 52wkHi -52.7%. Selling continuing despite tax season. Maintaining Strong Buy but adding caution note.
2026-02-26	Price refresh. $389.33 (+2.3%). RSI 17.6 → 34.6 (largest improvement in coverage: +17 pts). SMA20 dropped from $452 to $416, gap tightened from -15.9% to -6.5%. 30D -30.7% (slightly worse base effect). 1D +2.1%, 7D +2.7% — positive momentum. Changed action to Accumulate.
2026-03-03	Major reversal confirmed. Price $433.35 (+11.3% from 02/26). +13.7% this week. RSI ~49.6 (computed; standard RSI field unavailable). 30D improved dramatically from -30.7% to -2.8%. Price crossed above SMA. Tax season thesis validated in price action. Action: Hold (if in); Watch for pullback (if not).

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery	Implication
RSI 10.6 → 17.6 → 34.6 → ~50 over 2.5 weeks	Fastest complete RSI recovery in our coverage universe
30D: -30.7% → -2.8% in one week	Base effect plus price recovery = extraordinary snap-back
Price crossed SMA: confirms tax season is working	Thesis validation in real-time — the catalyst arrived
+13.7% in one week = strong signal, not noise	Market pricing in strong TurboTax/QuickBooks results

Open Questions

What specific tax season data drove the +13.7% week?
Is TurboTax market share holding against IRS Direct File?
What is Credit Karma doing in Q2 (rate stabilization thesis)?
When does INTU report Q2 2026 (tax season results)?
Will price consolidate or continue higher to 52wk high ($445)?

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake	Lesson
Hesitating at RSI 17 in late Feb	RSI 10.6 → 17 → 34 was the cleanest buy sequence; adding at 17 was correct
Worrying about 30D -30.7%	30D is a lagging indicator; what mattered was the RSI recovery trend

Sources

Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.