Conviction: Medium-High (upgraded — price at new 52wk high)
Status: Holding (Core Position) — RSI ~57.5 (computed), price $147.22, +9.7% this week, AT 52wk high
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟠 RSI ~57.5 (computed from 19 OHLC entries) — neutral-to-extended. Price $147.22, +1.4% today, +9.7% this week, +5.5% 30D. At in-window 52wk high. SMA19 approx ~$135.88 — price now +8.3% ABOVE SMA. |
| Moat |
Narrow (government: Wide; commercial: Narrow via AIP) |
| Key insight |
Extraordinary move. PLTR broke to a new 52wk high in-window at $147.22. The +9.7% week is the biggest weekly move in our coverage this period. RSI has recovered from 30 (02/16) to ~57.5. The SMA gap has completely flipped — from -2.4% below (02/26) to +8.3% above now. 30D is positive (+5.5%). This is no longer in entry zone — it's at the top of the range. Karp selling persists. AIP commercial momentum is the driver. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔒 Hold / Watch for Pullback |
AT 52wk high. RSI ~57. Not overbought yet but extended. Core position hold. No new adds at these levels. |
| Prior Entry Zone |
$125 - $140 |
NOW WELL BELOW current price |
| Stop-Loss |
$125 (-15%) |
Below prior consolidation floor |
| Target |
$200 (+36%) |
AIP commercial acceleration |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| PLTR |
$147.22 |
+1.4% |
+9.7% |
+5.5% |
— |
0.0% |
~57 |
🟡 Neutral-Extended |
🔒 Hold |
Note: RSI computed from 19 OHLC entries (~57.5). SMA20 field N/A; approx 19-entry average ~$135.88. 52wkHi at 0% = AT 52wk high ($147.22 is the high in data window).
Price vs Last Deep Dive (02/26)
| Metric |
02/26 |
03/03 |
Change |
| Price |
$134.49 |
$147.22 |
+$12.73 (+9.5%) |
| RSI |
54.9 |
~57.5 |
+2.6 (mild increase) |
| SMA20 |
$137.74 |
~$135.88 (approx) |
SMA declining slightly |
| vs SMA |
-2.4% below |
~+8.3% above |
BROKE ABOVE — now extended above SMA |
| 30D |
-19.7% |
+5.5% |
Massive swing — 25.2 pct pt improvement |
| 52wkHi |
-19.6% |
0% |
AT NEW HIGH |
Update from 02/26: Dramatic continuation. PLTR surged from $134.49 to $147.22 (+9.5%) — breaking to a new in-window 52-week high. The 30D went from -19.7% to +5.5% — a complete reversal. The stock is now +8.3% above its SMA20, which is the extended territory flagged as an "avoid/wait" zone. Karp selling remains the overhang, but price is not reflecting it — AIP commercial growth at +121% YoY is dominating. At the 52wk high with RSI ~57, this is not a new entry point. Hold and watch for pullback toward $135-138 (prior SMA) as the next add opportunity.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Palantir builds AI and data integration platforms for government intelligence (Gotham), enterprise operations (Foundry), and commercial AI deployment (AIP).
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Gotham (US government), Foundry (enterprise), AIP (AI Platform for commercial), TITAN (defense) |
| Who pays |
US government agencies (DoD, IC), US commercial enterprises, international governments |
| Revenue model |
Long-term contracts (government), subscription + expansion (commercial) |
| How sticky |
Extremely high (government: classified data integration); High (commercial: AIP embedded in ops) |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| US Government |
~40% |
+45% YoY |
DoD, IC, TITAN military AI |
| US Commercial |
~35% |
+121% YoY |
AIP adoption; fastest growing |
| International Government |
~15% |
+26% YoY |
NATO allies, foreign governments |
| International Commercial |
~10% |
+5% YoY |
Slower, less AIP traction |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Government: 10+ years of classified data integration. Commercial: AIP embedded in workflows. |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Security clearances (rare), government trust built over 20+ years |
| Network effects |
🟡 |
More AIP customers = better AI models = better product |
| Cost advantages |
🔴 |
Premium pricing; not a cost leader |
Moat Width: Government = Wide; Commercial = Narrow (but widening with AIP)
Moat Trend: Widening — AIP creating a new commercial moat as enterprises become dependent
Bull Case
Why This Could Work
- US Commercial AIP +121% YoY — AI adoption in enterprises is accelerating, and PLTR is the pick-and-shovel.
- Government AI tailwind — TITAN military AI contract, DoD digital modernization. No civilian company has this access.
- RSI recovery complete — RSI 30 → 55 → 57: recovery from oversold to neutral is confirmed.
- New 52wk high — Breakout from consolidation — momentum buyers entering.
- NATO ally expansion — Defense spending increases = more international government contracts.
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| AIP commercial growth sustains 100%+ for 2 more quarters |
$200 (+36%) |
| TITAN military contract expands to allies |
$220 (+49%) |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong
- Karp $4.7B insider selling — Persistent supply; CEO/insiders reducing exposure.
- Stretched valuation at 52wk high — 40x+ revenue. Any miss = large selloff.
- US commercial growth decelerates — 121% is unsustainable; deceleration expected.
- RSI extended at 52wk high — Classic fade territory; risk/reward less favorable here.
Thesis Killers
- US Commercial growth drops below 50% for 2 consecutive quarters
- Government loses access due to DOGE-driven contract reviews
- Karp sells $5B+ in a single quarter
Entry Strategy
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Add zone |
$132 - $140 |
Prior SMA / consolidation zone — wait for pullback |
| Support 1 |
$137 |
Prior SMA20 (approx) |
| Support 2 |
$125 |
Stop-loss level |
| Resistance 1 |
$147.22 |
Current 52wk high — NEW |
| Resistance 2 |
$160 |
Prior all-time high territory |
| 52-week high |
$167.47 |
Prior in-window high |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Current |
Hold at 52wk high; don't chase |
| Add opportunity |
RSI pulls back to 40-45 with price retesting $135-138 (prior SMA) |
| Stop |
$125 (-15% from current) |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created deep dive. RSI 29.7. $131.41. Karp $4.7B selling. Action: Hold. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price refresh. $135.24 (+2.9%). RSI 42.2 (largest RSI improvement in coverage: +12.5). SMA gap halved. 30D -18.2%, 3M -12.7%, 52wkHi -34.7%. Recovery underway. Hold. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Price essentially flat at $134.49 (-0.6% from 02/22). RSI continued recovery to 54.9 (+12.7 pts). SMA gap narrowed to -2.4% (from -6.3%). Approaching SMA breakout. 7D +1.1%. Maintaining Hold; watching for SMA reclaim as add trigger. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Breakout confirmed. Price $147.22 (+9.5% from 02/26). +9.7% this week. RSI ~57.5 (computed). 30D flipped to +5.5%. AT 52wk in-window high. Price +8.3% above SMA. Action: Hold — not a new add at 52wk high. Wait for pullback to $135-138. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 30 → 42 → 55 → 57 with price following: $131 → $135 → $134 → $147 |
Classic recovery pattern — RSI led, price followed |
| 30D: -18.2% → -19.7% → +5.5% in two weeks |
Extreme 30D recovery validates the "buy the dip" thesis |
| New 52wk high in-window |
Breakout from consolidation — bullish signal but also resistance zone |
| Karp selling $4.7B vs price at highs |
Despite CEO selling pressure, AIP demand overwhelming supply |
Open Questions
- What specific news/catalyst drove the +9.7% week?
- Is Karp's selling schedule known — will it continue at this pace?
- Has US Commercial growth been confirmed for Q4 2025 (the 121% figure)?
- Is TITAN contract fully awarded or still in proposal?
- What are the DOGE impacts on government contract renewals?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| Conflating Karp routine selling with fundamental concern |
AIP demand is overriding the insider supply pressure |
| Exiting at RSI 30 |
RSI 30 was the bottom — holding through was correct |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.