Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| AMZN |
$213.49 |
+0.1% |
+2.4% |
+3.2% |
— |
-3.2% |
56 |
🟡 Neutral |
📈 Accumulate |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/03)
| Metric |
03/03 |
03/10 |
Change |
| Price |
$208.73 |
$213.49 |
+$4.76 (+2.3%) |
| RSI |
~30.8 |
55.6 |
+24.8 (fully recovered to neutral) |
| SMA20 |
~$208.66 |
~$208.02 |
~flat |
| vs SMA |
~0% |
+2.6% above |
Price broke clearly above SMA |
| 30D |
-10.4% |
+3.2% |
Flipped positive |
Update from 03/03: Recovery complete. AMZN rose from $208.73 to $213.49 (+2.3%) while RSI surged from ~31 to 55.6. The 30D flipped from -10.4% to +3.2% — a complete reversal. Price is now +2.6% above SMA. The Feb capitulation (RSI 17 on 02/16) is fully healed. AWS + advertising flywheel thesis unchanged. Clean accumulate zone.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Amazon is the world's largest e-commerce marketplace and cloud provider (AWS), with dominant positions in digital advertising and logistics.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Cloud (AWS), 3rd-party marketplace, advertising, Prime subscriptions, direct retail |
| Who pays |
Consumers (retail, Prime), enterprises (AWS), advertisers (ad platform) |
| Revenue model |
Marketplace fees, AWS recurring, subscription (Prime), advertising CPM/CPC |
| How sticky |
Extremely high — AWS multi-year contracts, Prime ecosystem lock-in, marketplace flywheel |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| AWS |
~17% |
+19% YoY |
Cloud infrastructure, highest margin segment |
| North America Retail |
~46% |
+10% YoY |
Marketplace + direct sales |
| International |
~22% |
+9% YoY |
Growing but lower margin |
| Advertising |
~9% |
+19% YoY |
High-margin, fastest-growing |
| Other (Subscriptions) |
~6% |
+11% YoY |
Prime, digital content |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
More sellers = more buyers = more sellers (marketplace flywheel) |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
AWS: migration cost 12-24 months. Prime: annual subscription habit. |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Unmatched logistics network, AWS scale economies |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Consumer data, AWS ecosystem, logistics patents |
| Efficient scale |
🟢 |
Largest cloud + largest e-commerce = impossible to replicate economics |
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Widening (AI/ML embedded in AWS; advertising monetization accelerating)
Bull Case
Why This Could Work
- AWS re-acceleration — AI workloads driving cloud demand. 19% growth could push to 22%+.
- Advertising flywheel — $60B+ run rate, growing 19% with huge margin expansion runway.
- Full RSI recovery — RSI 17 → 31 → 56 over 3 weeks. Textbook capitulation-to-recovery.
- Bezos selling is noise — $10.9B in planned diversification, not a signal about business health.
- Margin expansion — Cost cuts + advertising growth driving EBIT margin from 5% to 10%+.
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| AWS accelerates to 22%+ growth |
$280 (+31%) — multiple expansion |
| Advertising margin expands |
$300 (+41%) — new earnings power |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong
- AWS slowdown — Enterprise cloud budgets tighten in recession.
- Consumer spending recession — Retail revenue pressured.
- Regulatory breakup risk — FTC scrutiny of marketplace/logistics.
- Capex overhang — $100B+ capex plan could compress FCF.
Thesis Killers
- AWS growth drops below 12% for 2 consecutive quarters
- Amazon loses prime subscriber base
- FCF turns negative for 2+ quarters
Entry Strategy
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$208 |
SMA20 — now support |
| Support 2 |
$195 |
Recent capitulation low |
| Support 3 |
$185 |
Pre-2025 consolidation |
| Resistance 1 |
$220 |
In-window 52wk high |
| Resistance 2 |
$233 |
Prior range |
| 52-week low |
~$158 |
Apr 2025 |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry zone |
$195 - $215 (current levels) |
| Starter position |
2% of portfolio |
| Add on |
RSI drops below 40 = add opportunity |
| Full position at |
RSI > 50 + AWS growth confirmation (already achieved) |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created deep dive. RSI 17 extreme capitulation. -15% 30D. Action: Strong Buy. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price refresh. $210.11 (+5.7% from $198.79 low). RSI improved 17 → 25. 30D -9.2%. Recovery underway. Upgraded action to Accumulate. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Price refresh. $206.73 (-1.6% from 02/22). RSI 33.8. SMA20 declining to $214.94, gap tightening to -3.8%. 30D -13.3%. Maintaining Accumulate. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Price refresh. $208.73 (+1.0% from 02/26). RSI ~30.8. 30D improved to -10.4%. Price AT SMA. Consolidating. Action: Accumulate. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Full recovery. $213.49 (+2.3% from 03/03). RSI 55.6 (computed). 30D flipped to +3.2%. Price +2.6% above SMA ($208.02). Feb capitulation fully healed. Action: Accumulate. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 17 → 31 → 56 in 3 weeks |
Classic capitulation-recovery arc now complete |
| 30D: -15% → -10.4% → +3.2% |
Full trend reversal confirmed |
| Price crossed and held above SMA |
Technical trend confirmed upward |
| Recovery took ~3 weeks from RSI 17 |
Sets benchmark for future capitulation recoveries |
Open Questions
- When does AWS report next acceleration data?
- Is Bezos selling program fully disclosed / on a schedule?
- How does AMZN's capex cycle affect FCF in 2026?
- Should entry zone be raised given full recovery?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| None logged yet |
RSI 17 was the ideal buy; RSI 31 consolidation was the confirmation add |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.