Conviction: High
Status: Strong hold — RSI 62.8, price $473.67, near 52wk high, tax season thesis confirmed
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟠 RSI 62.8 (computed) — approaching extended. Price $473.67, -1.6% today, +13.0% 7D, +12.4% 30D. SMA20 ~$408.76 — price +15.9% ABOVE SMA. Near in-window 52wk high ($483.35). Tax season thesis playing out in full force. |
| Moat |
Wide (TurboTax monopoly, QuickBooks SMB dominance) |
| Key insight |
Continued surge since 03/03. Price rose from $433.35 to $473.67 (+9.3%). RSI at 62.8 is getting extended. Price is now +15.9% above SMA — the most extended in our coverage. 30D +12.4% and near 52wk high. Tax season catalyst is fully priced. Not a new entry point — hold existing positions. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔒 Hold |
RSI 62.8 extended, near 52wk high. Hold existing positions. |
| If not holding |
⚠️ Avoid / Wait |
Too extended for new entry. Wait for RSI pullback to 45-50. |
| Entry Zone |
$430 - $450 |
Prior zone now WELL BELOW current price |
| Stop-Loss |
$400 (-15%) |
Below SMA and key support |
| Target |
$520 (+10%) |
Recovery toward full recovery level |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| INTU |
$473.67 |
-1.6% |
+13.0% |
+12.4% |
— |
-2.0% |
63 |
🟠 Near Extended |
🔒 Hold |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/03)
| Metric |
03/03 |
03/10 |
Change |
| Price |
$433.35 |
$473.67 |
+$40.32 (+9.3%) |
| RSI |
~49.6 |
62.8 |
+13.2 (approaching overbought) |
| SMA20 |
~$403.50 |
~$408.76 |
+$5.26 |
| vs SMA |
+7.4% |
+15.9% |
Increasingly extended |
| 30D |
-2.8% |
+12.4% |
Massive improvement |
Update from 03/03: INTU continues to rip. Price surged another +9.3% from $433.35 to $473.67 — now near the 52wk high ($483.35). RSI at 62.8 is approaching overbought. Price is +15.9% above SMA — the most extended position in our coverage. The tax season thesis has been fully validated by price action. The RSI journey from 10.6 (02/16) to 62.8 (03/10) over 3 weeks is the most dramatic recovery in our universe. Hold existing; do not chase at these levels.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Intuit is the dominant tax software (TurboTax) and SMB accounting (QuickBooks) provider with near-monopoly positions in both markets.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
TurboTax (consumer tax filing), QuickBooks (SMB accounting), Credit Karma (financial products), Mailchimp (marketing) |
| Who pays |
Consumers (tax filing), SMBs (accounting/payroll), financial product seekers (Credit Karma) |
| Revenue model |
Per-return fees (TurboTax), SaaS subscriptions (QuickBooks Online), lead-gen (Credit Karma) |
| How sticky |
Very high — users return to TurboTax annually; QuickBooks embedded in SMB ops |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| Small Business (QuickBooks) |
~55% |
+18% YoY |
QuickBooks Online, payroll, payments |
| Consumer (TurboTax) |
~30% |
+8% YoY |
Seasonal Q2 concentration |
| Credit Karma |
~10% |
+20%+ YoY |
Recovering with rate environment |
| ProTax |
~5% |
+5% YoY |
CPA/accountant tools |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Multi-year tax history locked in TurboTax; QuickBooks data migration cost |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
TurboTax brand (#1 consumer awareness), regulatory knowledge |
| Network effects |
🟡 |
QuickBooks App ecosystem (700+ integrations) |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Scale across 40M+ annual TurboTax filers |
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Stable with AI risk (IRS Direct File, GenAI tax tools) worth monitoring
Bull Case
Why This Could Work
- Tax season catalyst confirmed — +12.4% 30D, near 52wk high. Market pricing in strong results.
- RSI 10.6 → 63 in 3 weeks — Most dramatic recovery in our entire coverage universe.
- QuickBooks AI integration — GenAI bookkeeping assistant could expand SMB TAM.
- Price well above SMA — Technical trend decisively up.
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| Strong tax season results in May earnings |
$520 (+10%) |
| QuickBooks AI drives SMB retention |
$550 (+16%) |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong
- IRS Direct File expansion — If Congress funds expansion to complex returns, TurboTax TAM shrinks.
- AI disruption — New AI-native tax tools at lower price points.
- RSI at 63 = extended — Risk of pullback from overbought levels.
- Credit Karma headwinds — Fintech slowdown.
Thesis Killers
- TurboTax market share declines >5% in one filing season
- QuickBooks Online net churn goes negative
- IRS Direct File expands to cover Schedule C
Entry Strategy
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$445 |
In-window high area — now potential support |
| Support 2 |
$408 |
SMA20 — key support level |
| Support 3 |
$400 |
Psychological round number |
| Resistance 1 |
$483 |
In-window 52wk high |
| Resistance 2 |
$500 |
Prior multi-year level |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| If holding |
Hold above $400 stop; tax season thesis fully priced |
| New entry |
DO NOT CHASE. Wait for RSI pullback to 45-50 with price near $430-450 |
| Trim |
Consider trimming if RSI > 70 |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created deep dive. RSI 10.6 extreme. $399.40. Action: Strong Buy. Tax season catalyst. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price refresh. $380.55 (-4.7%). RSI 17.6. Maintaining Strong Buy with caution. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Price refresh. $389.33 (+2.3%). RSI 34.6. Changed action to Accumulate. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Major reversal. $433.35 (+11.3%). RSI ~49.6. Price above SMA. Action: Hold. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Continued surge. $473.67 (+9.3% from 03/03). RSI 62.8 (computed). Near 52wk high. +15.9% above SMA. Tax season thesis fully priced. Action: Hold; don't chase. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 10.6 → 62.8 in 3 weeks |
Most dramatic RSI recovery in our entire coverage universe |
| Price: $380 → $474 (+25%) in 2.5 weeks |
Tax season catalyst delivered massive returns |
| Now +15.9% above SMA |
Most extended stock in our coverage — pullback risk elevated |
| 30D: -30.7% → +12.4% |
Complete 43 pct-pt swing in 2 weeks |
Open Questions
- When does INTU report Q2 2026 (tax season results)?
- Is TurboTax market share holding against IRS Direct File?
- Will RSI reach 70+ (overbought) or consolidate at 60-65?
- Should entry zone be raised given the structural recovery?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| Hesitating at RSI 17 in late Feb |
RSI 10.6 → 17 was the cleanest buy signal in the universe |
| Worrying about 30D -30.7% |
30D is lagging; RSI recovery trend was the signal |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.