Conviction: Medium
Status: Researching — RSI 17.4 (stale from 02/23), extreme oversold 4+ weeks, no recovery signal
Data note: OHLC data last updated 2026-02-23.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🔴 RSI 17.4 (stale — 02/23) — sustained extreme oversold. Price $162.31, -32.2% 30D. SMA20 $195.64. Price -17.0% below SMA. No recovery signal visible. |
| Moat |
Wide |
| Key insight |
IQV OHLC data is now 15+ days stale. RSI 17.4 has been sustained for 4+ weeks without recovery — the longest extreme RSI streak in our coverage. The failed recovery (RSI 14 → 25 → 17) suggests continued institutional selling. Need fresh data urgently. Wide moat (1B+ patient records, 90% of top pharma) is unquestionable, but price action is terrible. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔍 Research / Watch |
RSI stuck at extreme, data stale 15+ days. No entry until stabilization confirmed. |
| Entry Zone |
$155 - $170 |
Last known $162.31 — in zone, but may have moved |
| Stop-Loss |
$134 (-17%) |
Below April 2025 52-week low ($135.97) |
| Target |
$217 (+34%) |
Return to 3-month mean |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| IQV |
$162.31 |
-2.0% |
-2.8% |
-32.2% |
— |
-33.5% |
17↓ |
🔴 Extreme Oversold |
🔍 Watch |
Note: OHLC data last updated 2026-02-23. RSI 17.4, SMA20 $195.64.
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/03)
| Metric |
03/03 |
03/10 |
Change |
| Price |
$162.31 |
$162.31 |
$0.00 (data stale) |
| RSI |
17.4 |
17.4 |
0.0 (stale) |
Update (03/10): IQV data is now 15+ days stale. No new information since 02/23. RSI 17.4 sustained for 4+ weeks is unprecedented in our tracking. The wide moat thesis (1B+ patient records, CRO scale) is unchanged. But without fresh data, no action is possible.
Company Overview
One-Liner
IQVIA provides data analytics, technology solutions, and contract research services to the life sciences industry.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Clinical trial management (CRO), healthcare data/analytics, technology platforms |
| Who pays |
Pharma companies (90% of top 25), biotech firms, medical device companies |
| Revenue model |
Long-term contracts (CRO), SaaS subscriptions (analytics), project-based |
| How sticky |
Very high — multi-year CRO contracts, deeply embedded analytics, proprietary data moat |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| R&D Solutions (R&DS) |
55% |
+4.3% YoY |
Clinical trial management |
| Technology & Analytics (TAS) |
40% |
+7.6% YoY |
Cloud apps, real-world evidence |
| Contract Sales & Medical (CSMS) |
5% |
Flat |
Merging into TAS |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
More data from trials = better analytics = attracts more clients |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Multi-year contracts, deeply embedded platforms |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Scale across 100+ countries, largest CRO workforce |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Proprietary datasets covering 1B+ patient records |
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Widening (AI + data flywheel)
Valuation
| Metric |
Current |
5Y Avg |
Signal |
| P/E (forward) |
~13x |
~25x |
🟢 Near floor |
| EV/EBITDA |
~10x |
~15x |
🟢 |
Fair Value Estimate: $210-$230
Entry Strategy
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$157 |
Feb 12 intraday low — KEY level |
| Support 2 |
$136 |
April 2025 52-week low |
| Resistance 1 |
$187 |
Feb 6 close |
| Resistance 2 |
$195.64 |
SMA20 |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry trigger |
RSI stabilizes above 20 for 3+ consecutive days |
| Starter position |
1% of portfolio |
| Add on |
Stabilization above $175 with RSI > 25 |
| Full position at |
Q1 2026 guidance confirmation |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-15 |
Created deep dive. RSI 14 extreme. -31% 30D on guidance miss. Wide moat, fair value $210-$230. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price $165.62. RSI improved to 25.5 — stabilization. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Price deteriorated to $162.31. RSI slipped to 17.4 (failed recovery). |
| 2026-03-03 |
OHLC stale (02/23). RSI 17.4 sustained. No entry signal. |
| 2026-03-10 |
OHLC still stale (02/23) — now 15+ days. No new data. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 14 → 25 → 17 (failed recovery) |
Sustained institutional selling; no bottom formed |
| 4+ weeks at extreme RSI (14-17) |
Unprecedented — unusual institutional pressure |
| 100% earnings beat rate vs 13x fwd P/E |
If guidance conservative, significant re-rating upside |
Open Questions
- CRITICAL: Current data unknown
- Has the Feb 12 low ($156.67) held?
- Is the Q4 cancellation trend in R&DS worsening?
- Is the $13B debt a concern given refinancing costs?
Mistakes (If Applicable)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| N/A — not entered yet |
RSI 25.5 "recovery" was a head fake — importance of sustained stabilization |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.