Conviction: Medium (tempered by 5+ weeks of stale data)
Status: Data stale — RSI 8.8 (as of Feb 5), price $476.32 per last data. Actual current price unknown.
Data note: OHLC data last updated 2026-02-05.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟢 RSI 8.8 (stale — Feb 5, 2026) — most extreme reading in our universe if still valid. Price $476.32 per stale data. Data now 5+ weeks old. |
| Moat |
Wide (surgical robotics monopoly — da Vinci system) |
| Key insight |
ISRG OHLC data has been stale since Feb 5, 2026 — now over 5 weeks without an update. This is the most critical data quality issue in our coverage. RSI 8.8 sustained for 5+ weeks is historically impossible — the data is simply not refreshing. Da Vinci monopoly thesis unquestionably intact. MUST fetch fresh data before any action. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
⏳ Wait for fresh data |
Cannot act without current price. Data 5+ weeks stale. |
| If fresh RSI still < 15 |
✅ Buy (small) |
RSI extreme + monopoly moat = strong signal |
| If fresh RSI 15-30 |
📈 Accumulate |
Still oversold; reduced urgency |
| If fresh RSI > 30 |
🔍 Watch |
Recovery may be underway |
| Entry Zone (if still oversold) |
$455 - $490 |
Based on stale data |
| Stop-Loss |
$405 (-15%) |
Below key support |
| Target |
$600 (+26%) |
Recovery toward recent levels |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| ISRG |
$476.32* |
-0.5%* |
-6.2%* |
-19.7%* |
— |
-21.1%* |
8↓* |
🟢 Extreme Oversold* |
⏳ Fetch Data |
All values from stale OHLC data (last entry: Feb 5, 2026). Treat as outdated.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Intuitive Surgical manufactures the da Vinci robotic surgical system, with a near-monopoly in soft-tissue robotic surgery globally.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
da Vinci surgical systems (hardware), instruments/accessories (per-procedure), service contracts |
| Who pays |
Hospitals, surgical centers globally |
| Revenue model |
System placements (upfront or lease), instrument consumables (per procedure), annual service contracts |
| How sticky |
Extremely high — hospitals train entire surgical staff, $2M+ investment, 10+ year life |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| Instruments & Accessories |
~60% |
+18% YoY |
Highest-margin, recurring |
| Systems |
~25% |
+12% YoY |
New da Vinci 5 placements |
| Services |
~15% |
+10% YoY |
Annual maintenance contracts |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Surgeon training 12-18 months, hospital capital commitment |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
10,000+ patents, FDA approvals, 30+ years surgical data |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
More procedures = more outcome data = more placements |
| Efficient scale |
🟢 |
10,000+ installed systems globally |
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Widening — da Vinci 5 driving upgrade cycle
Bull Case
- da Vinci monopoly — 10,000+ installed systems. No serious competitor for 5+ years.
- Recurring consumable flywheel — Each system generates $500K-$1M+ annually.
- da Vinci 5 upgrade cycle — New generation driving replacements.
- Procedure growth — Robotic procedures growing 15%+ annually.
- RSI 8.8 = historical extreme — If valid, exceptional entry opportunity.
Bear Case
- Insider selling persists — $282.6M net selling.
- Procedure volume risk — Hospital capex constraints.
- da Vinci 5 adoption slower than expected.
- Regulatory issues — FDA scrutiny on outcomes.
Thesis Killers
- Procedure growth drops below 8% for 2 quarters
- Major hospital system cancels for competitor
- Medtronic Hugo achieves broad FDA approval
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created deep dive. RSI 8.8 extreme. $476.32. Insider selling -$282.6M. Action: Buy (with caution). |
| 2026-02-22 |
Data stale. Price/RSI unchanged. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Data stale. 3+ weeks without update. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Data stale. 4 weeks without update. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Data still stale (Feb 5, 2026) — now 5+ weeks. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 8.8 — data 5+ weeks stale |
Data quality failure; real RSI unknown |
| da Vinci 5 upgrade cycle underway |
Fundamentals excellent regardless of price |
| Insider selling $282.6M |
Management reducing exposure |
Open Questions
- CRITICAL: What is the actual current price and RSI?
- Has ISRG bounced from $476.32 since Feb 5?
- Are insider sales on a 10b5-1 schedule?
- What is da Vinci 5 placement pace?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| Not fetching fresh OHLC data over 5 updates |
Refresh price data every time before updating |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.