2026-03-10 - MDT - Medtronic Deep Dive

Deep Dive Ticker Tape

Article published Mar 10, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.

MDT $90.60 +8.9% 30d

Conviction: Medium Status: Watching — RSI 36.3 (stale from 02/23), price $98.61, approaching entry zone

Data note: OHLC data last updated 2026-02-23.


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 RSI 36.3 (stale — 02/23) — approaching oversold. Price $98.61, -2.0% 30D. SMA20 $100.61. Alert at $92 active.
Moat Moderate-Wide — scale and switching costs, but execution has lagged peers
Key insight MDT data is stale (15+ days since 02/23). RSI at 36.3 is above the 30-35 entry trigger. Price at $98.61 is above the $88-94 entry zone. No action until fresh data confirms approach to entry zone. PFA franchise growth and MiniMed spinoff are key catalysts.

Action Matrix

Action Level Why
Current 🔍 Watch RSI 36.3, price above entry zone. Alert at $92. Data stale 15+ days.
Entry Zone $88 - $94 ~10-15% pullback from stale $98.61
Stop-Loss $79 (-20%) Below 52-week low ($79.55)
Target 1 $108 (+10%) Analyst consensus zone
Target 2 $117 (+19%) All-time high recovery

Price Data

Stock Price 1D 7D 30D 3M 52wkHi RSI Status Action
MDT $98.61 +1.8% -0.9% -2.0% -6.5% 36 🟡 Approaching Oversold 🔍 Watch

Note: Data last updated 2026-02-23.


Company Overview

One-Liner

Medtronic is the world's largest standalone medical device company — $34B/year spanning heart rhythm management, surgical robotics, spinal implants, neurostimulation, and diabetes technology.

Key Segments (Q3 FY2026)

Segment Q3 Revenue Q3 Organic Growth Key Products
Cardiovascular $3.457B +10.6% PFA/Affera system, TAVR, cardiac monitoring
Neuroscience $2.558B +2.5% Spinal fusion, neuro-stimulation
Medical Surgical $2.173B +2.7% Hugo surgical robot, endoscopy
Diabetes $796M +8.3% MiniMed CGM, insulin pumps (spinning off mid-2026)

Bull Case

Argument Evidence Conviction
PFA is a multi-year growth driver Cardiac Ablation +80% global, +137% US 🟢 High
MiniMed spinoff unlocks value Removes GLP-1 narrative; 100+ bps margin uplift 🟢 High
Hugo FDA clearance Just cleared for urologic procedures Feb 2026 🟡 Medium
Dividend aristocrat 48 years of increases, ~2.9% yield 🟢 High
Cheapest large-cap medtech P/E ~26x forward vs BSX 57x, SYK 35x 🟢 Medium-High

Bear Case

Argument Evidence Risk Level
10-year underperformance Still 16% below Sept 2021 ATH 🟠 Real
Hugo is years from revenue ISRG has 10,763+ systems vs Hugo just cleared 🟠 Real
Spine is structural drag Mature, price-deflationary market 🟡 Medium

Entry Strategy

Strategy Details
Current Watch — data stale, RSI above entry trigger
Alert $92 — entry zone bottom
Entry zone $88 - $94
RSI target RSI < 35 with price in $88-94 zone
Stop $79 (-20%)

Research Log

Date Update
2026-02-22 Created deep dive. Price ~$97.58. RSI ~58. Q3 FY26 strongest growth in 10 quarters.
2026-02-26 Fresh OHLC. Price $98.61. RSI 36.3. Getting closer to entry zone.
2026-03-03 OHLC stale (02/23). No change. Action: Watch.
2026-03-10 OHLC still stale (02/23) — 15+ days. Action unchanged.

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
RSI dropped from ~58 to 36.3 Post-Q3 enthusiasm cooling — approaching entry
SMA20 $100.61, price $98.61 Right at moving average
Data stale 15+ days Need fresh data for actionable signals

Open Questions

  • CRITICAL: Current RSI unknown
  • What are Hugo US placement numbers?
  • Is Affera winning majority share in new EP labs?
  • What multiple will MiniMed trade at post-spinoff?

Sources

  • Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.