Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| MSFT |
$409.41 |
+0.1% |
+2.7% |
-0.7% |
— |
-3.1% |
49 |
🟡 Neutral |
📈 Accumulate |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/03)
| Metric |
03/03 |
03/10 |
Change |
| Price |
$403.95 |
$409.41 |
+$5.46 (+1.4%) |
| RSI |
44.1 |
48.6 |
+4.5 (slight improvement) |
| SMA20 |
$400.38 |
~$400.67 |
~flat |
| vs SMA |
+0.9% |
+2.2% |
Slightly more above SMA |
| 30D |
-1.5% |
-0.7% |
Continued improvement |
Update from 03/03: Steady consolidation above SMA continues. Price rose from $403.95 to $409.41 (+1.4%), RSI improved from 44.1 to 48.6. Price is now +2.2% above SMA. The 30D improved from -1.5% to -0.7% — effectively at parity now. This is a textbook accumulate zone: above trend, neutral RSI, not extended. Azure + Copilot thesis unchanged.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Microsoft is the world's largest enterprise software company, with dominant positions in productivity (Office 365), cloud infrastructure (Azure), developer tools (GitHub/VSCode), and gaming (Xbox).
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Azure cloud, Microsoft 365, Windows, LinkedIn, GitHub, Xbox, Dynamics CRM, Copilot AI |
| Who pays |
Enterprises (Azure, M365, Dynamics), consumers (Xbox, M365 Personal), developers (GitHub) |
| Revenue model |
Per-seat SaaS, consumption-based (Azure), licensing, advertising (LinkedIn) |
| How sticky |
Extreme — M365 embedded in 99% of enterprise workflows |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| Intelligent Cloud (Azure) |
~40% |
+19% YoY |
39% Azure growth |
| Productivity & Business (M365) |
~35% |
+12% YoY |
Office, Teams, LinkedIn |
| More Personal Computing |
~25% |
+3% YoY |
Windows, Xbox |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
M365 embedded in enterprise; Azure deep integration |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
Teams (300M users), LinkedIn (1B+), GitHub (100M+ devs) |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Windows brand, enterprise trust, government certifications |
| Efficient scale |
🟢 |
$260B+ revenue; massive capex moat for AI infrastructure |
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Widening — Copilot monetization + Azure AI workloads
Bull Case
- Azure growth re-acceleration — 39% YoY with AI workloads.
- Copilot monetization — $30/seat/month across 345M M365 seats.
- RSI 49 at SMA = ideal accumulate — Not extended, above trend, confirmed.
- Buyback machine — $80B+ authorized buyback.
- OpenAI leverage — Equity stake and Azure integration.
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| Copilot adoption reaches 10% of M365 base |
$530 (+29%) |
| Azure re-accelerates to 25%+ growth |
$560 (+37%) |
Bear Case
- Capex anxiety — $80B+ AI capex compresses near-term FCF.
- Azure deceleration — Any miss to 30-35% causes multiple compression.
- Copilot adoption disappointment — Slow enterprise uptake.
- OpenAI relationship cost — Escalating investment requirements.
Thesis Killers
- Azure growth drops below 25% for 2 quarters
- Copilot churn rate exceeds 20%
- Antitrust breakup of Office + Azure bundling
Entry Strategy
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$400.67 |
SMA20 — established support |
| Support 2 |
$390 |
Entry zone floor |
| Support 3 |
$330 |
Stop-loss zone |
| Resistance 1 |
$415 |
Upper entry zone |
| Resistance 2 |
$422 |
In-window 52wk high |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry zone |
$390 - $415 |
| Current action |
Accumulate — above SMA, RSI 49, 30D nearly flat |
| Add |
RSI pullback to 35-40 = another add opportunity |
| Full |
Azure growth + Copilot confirmation in Q3 earnings |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created deep dive. RSI 24.9. $401.32. Action: Buy. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price $397.23. RSI 30.7. Stabilizing. Action: Accumulate. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Price $401.58. RSI 56.2 (massive recovery). Approaching SMA. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Price $403.95. RSI 44.1 (healthy pullback). Crossed above SMA. Accumulate. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Price $409.41 (+1.4%). RSI 48.6 (computed). 30D -0.7% (nearly flat). +2.2% above SMA. Steady consolidation. Action: Accumulate. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 25 → 56 → 44 → 49: stable recovery |
Classic recovery arc completed and consolidating |
| 30D: -14.4% → -1.5% → -0.7% |
Approaching full 30D recovery |
| Price holding above SMA for 2 weeks |
Trend confirmed upward |
| RSI at 49 = textbook neutral |
Ideal accumulate zone — no urgency but no risk |
Open Questions
- What is Copilot adoption rate as of Q2 FY2026?
- Is Microsoft's $80B capex causing permanent FCF compression?
- When does MSFT next report (Q3 FY2026)?
- How is Azure competing with AWS in AI workloads?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| None yet |
RSI 49 above SMA = keep accumulating; don't wait for perfect entry |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.