Conviction: High
Status: Strong hold — RSI 61.1, price $201.48, near 52wk high, 30D +11.9%
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟠 RSI 61.1 (computed) — approaching extended. Price $201.48, +3.2% today, +11.3% 7D, +11.9% 30D. SMA20 ~$183.30 — price +9.9% ABOVE SMA. Near in-window 52wk high ($203.86). |
| Moat |
Narrow (widening — network effects, switching costs) |
| Key insight |
NET has surged. Price rose from $178.83 (03/03) to $201.48 (+12.7%). RSI at 61.1 is getting extended. Price is +9.9% above SMA and approaching the 52wk high. 30D is now +11.9% — one of the strongest in our coverage. The stop-loss at $162 now has a healthy -19.6% cushion. AI traffic layer / zero-trust thesis fully reasserted. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔒 Hold |
Core position, 30D strongly positive, near 52wk high. RSI getting extended — don't add here. |
| Entry Zone |
$180 - $195 |
Current price ABOVE zone |
| Stop-Loss |
$162 (-19.6%) |
Honor if hit — comfortable buffer now |
| Target |
$250 (+24%) |
Continue recovery thesis |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| NET |
$201.48 |
+3.2% |
+11.3% |
+11.9% |
— |
-1.2% |
61 |
🟠 Near Extended |
🔒 Hold |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/03)
| Metric |
03/03 |
03/10 |
Change |
| Price |
$178.83 |
$201.48 |
+$22.65 (+12.7%) |
| RSI |
~55.8 |
61.1 |
+5.3 (approaching extended) |
| SMA20 |
~$178.14 |
~$183.30 |
+$5.16 (SMA rising) |
| vs SMA |
+0.4% |
+9.9% |
Now significantly extended |
| 30D |
+7.2% |
+11.9% |
Continued momentum |
| Stop distance |
-9.4% |
-19.6% |
Much more comfortable |
Update from 03/03: NET has accelerated. Price surged from $178.83 to $201.48 (+12.7%) — now just -1.2% from the 52wk high. RSI at 61.1 is approaching extended territory. The stop-loss at $162 now has a comfortable -19.6% buffer. The AI traffic layer / zero-trust thesis is fully reasserted. Hold but don't add at these levels — wait for pullback to $185-195 (near SMA).
Company Overview
One-Liner
Cloudflare is a cloud network platform providing CDN, DDoS protection, zero-trust security, and serverless computing at the network edge.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
CDN, DDoS protection, Zero Trust (SASE), Workers (serverless), R2 (storage) |
| Who pays |
Enterprise, mid-market, developers globally |
| Revenue model |
Tiered SaaS subscriptions; free tier drives enterprise upsell |
| How sticky |
High — network infrastructure deeply embedded |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| Large Customers ($100K+) |
Growing |
+27% YoY |
Primary growth driver |
| Platform Overall |
100% |
+25% YoY |
~$1.6B run rate |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
300+ POPs globally; more traffic = better routing |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Zero Trust deployment embedded in security stack |
| Intangible assets |
🟡 |
Edge network technology; Workers developer ecosystem |
Moat Width: Narrow (widening)
Moat Trend: Widening — AI agent traffic routing, zero-trust security
Bull Case
- AI traffic layer — Every AI agent call goes through the internet. NET positioned as the AI routing layer.
- Zero Trust secular tailwind — Enterprises moving VPN → zero trust.
- Developer platform — Workers/R2/D1 growing as AWS Lambda alternative.
- Near 52wk high — Momentum buyers entering.
- Stop-loss now at -19.6% — Comfortable risk management.
Bear Case
- RSI 61 = approaching extended — Risk of pullback.
- Competition from Zscaler / Palo Alto — Larger zero trust competitors.
- Growth deceleration risk — 25% is strong but market priced for 30%+.
Thesis Killers
- Net Revenue Retention drops below 115%
- Large customer growth stalls
- Security breach damages brand
Entry Strategy
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$195 |
Recent range |
| Support 2 |
$183 |
SMA20 — key support |
| Support 3 |
$162 |
Stop-loss — CRITICAL |
| Resistance 1 |
$204 |
In-window 52wk high |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Current hold |
Core position above $162 stop |
| Stop |
$162 — honor if hit |
| Re-add |
RSI pullback to 45-50 with price near $185-195 |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created. RSI 52.9. $195.85. Above SMA (+8.9%). Action: Hold. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price $177.14 (-9.6%). RSI 49.8. Below SMA. Hold with caution. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Price $173.33. RSI 55.6. 30D flipped to -8.5%. Stop danger at -6.5%. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Recovery confirmed. $178.83 (+3.2%). 30D +7.2%. Price above SMA. Hold. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Surge continues. $201.48 (+12.7% from 03/03). RSI 61.1 (computed). Near 52wk high. 30D +11.9%. Stop buffer improved to -19.6%. Hold; don't add at these levels. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| Price $179 → $201 in one week (+12.7%) |
Strongest weekly move in NET deep dive history |
| RSI 56 → 61 while price surged 12.7% |
Momentum building but approaching extended |
| Stop buffer improved from -6.5% to -19.6% |
Risk management now very comfortable |
| Near 52wk high ($204) |
Breakout territory if it clears $204 |
Open Questions
- What drove the +11.3% week? New contract? Sector rotation?
- Should the stop be raised from $162 given the recovery?
- Will NET break above 52wk high ($204) or consolidate?
- Is NET being re-accumulated by institutional funds?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| Stop at $162 was the right level |
Absorbed the volatility; now has 20% buffer |
| Not adding at $173 (03/03 level) |
+12.7% left on table — could have added at SMA |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.