2026-03-10 - NET - Cloudflare Deep Dive

Article published Mar 10, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.

NET Price Structure

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Conviction: High Status: Strong hold — RSI 61.1, price $201.48, near 52wk high, 30D +11.9%

Quick Snapshot

Signal	Reading
Overall	🟠 RSI 61.1 (computed) — approaching extended. Price $201.48, +3.2% today, +11.3% 7D, +11.9% 30D. SMA20 ~$183.30 — price +9.9% ABOVE SMA. Near in-window 52wk high ($203.86).
Moat	Narrow (widening — network effects, switching costs)
Key insight	NET has surged. Price rose from $178.83 (03/03) to $201.48 (+12.7%). RSI at 61.1 is getting extended. Price is +9.9% above SMA and approaching the 52wk high. 30D is now +11.9% — one of the strongest in our coverage. The stop-loss at $162 now has a healthy -19.6% cushion. AI traffic layer / zero-trust thesis fully reasserted.

Action Matrix

Action	Level	Why
Current	🔒 Hold	Core position, 30D strongly positive, near 52wk high. RSI getting extended — don't add here.
Entry Zone	$180 - $195	Current price ABOVE zone
Stop-Loss	$162 (-19.6%)	Honor if hit — comfortable buffer now
Target	$250 (+24%)	Continue recovery thesis

Extended analysis

Price Data

Stock	Price	1D	7D	30D	3M	52wkHi	RSI	Status	Action
NET	$201.48	+3.2%	+11.3%	+11.9%	—	-1.2%	61	🟠 Near Extended	🔒 Hold

Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/03)

Metric	03/03	03/10	Change
Price	$178.83	$201.48	+$22.65 (+12.7%)
RSI	~55.8	61.1	+5.3 (approaching extended)
SMA20	~$178.14	~$183.30	+$5.16 (SMA rising)
vs SMA	+0.4%	+9.9%	Now significantly extended
30D	+7.2%	+11.9%	Continued momentum
Stop distance	-9.4%	-19.6%	Much more comfortable

Update from 03/03: NET has accelerated. Price surged from $178.83 to $201.48 (+12.7%) — now just -1.2% from the 52wk high. RSI at 61.1 is approaching extended territory. The stop-loss at $162 now has a comfortable -19.6% buffer. The AI traffic layer / zero-trust thesis is fully reasserted. Hold but don't add at these levels — wait for pullback to $185-195 (near SMA).

Company Overview

One-Liner

Cloudflare is a cloud network platform providing CDN, DDoS protection, zero-trust security, and serverless computing at the network edge.

Business Model

Question	Answer
What they sell	CDN, DDoS protection, Zero Trust (SASE), Workers (serverless), R2 (storage)
Who pays	Enterprise, mid-market, developers globally
Revenue model	Tiered SaaS subscriptions; free tier drives enterprise upsell
How sticky	High — network infrastructure deeply embedded

Key Segments

Segment	Revenue %	Growth	Notes
Large Customers ($100K+)	Growing	+27% YoY	Primary growth driver
Platform Overall	100%	+25% YoY	~$1.6B run rate

Competitive Analysis

Competitive Moat

Moat Type	Present?	Evidence
Network effects	🟢	300+ POPs globally; more traffic = better routing
Switching costs	🟢	Zero Trust deployment embedded in security stack
Intangible assets	🟡	Edge network technology; Workers developer ecosystem

Moat Width: Narrow (widening) Moat Trend: Widening — AI agent traffic routing, zero-trust security

Bull Case

AI traffic layer — Every AI agent call goes through the internet. NET positioned as the AI routing layer.
Zero Trust secular tailwind — Enterprises moving VPN → zero trust.
Developer platform — Workers/R2/D1 growing as AWS Lambda alternative.
Near 52wk high — Momentum buyers entering.
Stop-loss now at -19.6% — Comfortable risk management.

Bear Case

RSI 61 = approaching extended — Risk of pullback.
Competition from Zscaler / Palo Alto — Larger zero trust competitors.
Growth deceleration risk — 25% is strong but market priced for 30%+.

Thesis Killers

Net Revenue Retention drops below 115%
Large customer growth stalls
Security breach damages brand

Entry Strategy

Level	Price	Notes
Support 1	$195	Recent range
Support 2	$183	SMA20 — key support
Support 3	$162	Stop-loss — CRITICAL
Resistance 1	$204	In-window 52wk high

Entry Approach

Strategy	Details
Current hold	Core position above $162 stop
Stop	$162 — honor if hit
Re-add	RSI pullback to 45-50 with price near $185-195

Research Log

Date	Update
2026-02-16	Created. RSI 52.9. $195.85. Above SMA (+8.9%). Action: Hold.
2026-02-22	Price $177.14 (-9.6%). RSI 49.8. Below SMA. Hold with caution.
2026-02-26	Price $173.33. RSI 55.6. 30D flipped to -8.5%. Stop danger at -6.5%.
2026-03-03	Recovery confirmed. $178.83 (+3.2%). 30D +7.2%. Price above SMA. Hold.
2026-03-10	Surge continues. $201.48 (+12.7% from 03/03). RSI 61.1 (computed). Near 52wk high. 30D +11.9%. Stop buffer improved to -19.6%. Hold; don't add at these levels.

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery	Implication
Price $179 → $201 in one week (+12.7%)	Strongest weekly move in NET deep dive history
RSI 56 → 61 while price surged 12.7%	Momentum building but approaching extended
Stop buffer improved from -6.5% to -19.6%	Risk management now very comfortable
Near 52wk high ($204)	Breakout territory if it clears $204

Open Questions

What drove the +11.3% week? New contract? Sector rotation?
Should the stop be raised from $162 given the recovery?
Will NET break above 52wk high ($204) or consolidate?
Is NET being re-accumulated by institutional funds?

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake	Lesson
Stop at $162 was the right level	Absorbed the volatility; now has 20% buffer
Not adding at $173 (03/03 level)	+12.7% left on table — could have added at SMA

Sources

Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.