Deep Dive Ticker Tape
Article published Mar 10, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
ORCL Price Structure
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Conviction: Medium (needs research) Status: Watching — RSI 15.2 (stale from 02/03), -20.4% 30D, extreme oversold
Data note: OHLC data last updated 2026-02-03. All readings are as of that date.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 RSI 15.2 (stale — 02/03) — extreme oversold. Price $152.95, -20.4% 30D, -26.4% from 52wk high. SMA20 $182.03. Price -16.0% below SMA. |
| Moat | Wide (database monopoly, enterprise contracts) |
| Key insight | ORCL data is 5+ weeks stale. RSI 15.2 at $400B+ market cap is a rare signal. Oracle's database moat is unassailable — 90%+ of large enterprises run Oracle DB. The OCI AI infrastructure thesis (Stargate partnership) is a long-term catalyst. But with data this stale, the real picture may be very different. Priority: fetch fresh data. |
Action Matrix
| Action | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Current | 🔍 Research / Watch | RSI extreme but data 5+ weeks stale. Need current price + catalyst research. |
| Entry Zone | $145 - $160 | Based on stale data |
| Stop-Loss | $125 (-18%) | Below major support |
| Target | $185 (+21%) | Recovery toward SMA |
Extended analysis
Price Data
| Stock | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | $152.95 | -4.4% | -12.6% | -20.4% | — | -26.4% | 15↓ | 🔴 Extreme Oversold | 🔍 Research |
Note: Data last updated 2026-02-03. All values stale.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Oracle is the world's leading enterprise database and cloud infrastructure company, with dominant positions in relational databases, ERP, and multi-cloud AI infrastructure.
Business Model
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| What they sell | Database (Oracle DB, Autonomous), Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), ERP/HCM (Fusion, NetSuite) |
| Who pays | Enterprises (Fortune 500), government agencies, financial institutions |
| Revenue model | License + Support (high-margin), SaaS subscriptions, cloud consumption (OCI) |
| How sticky | Extremely high — Oracle DB switching cost 3-10 years |
Key Segments
| Segment | Revenue % | Growth | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud Services & License Support | ~75% | +12% YoY | High-margin, recurring |
| Cloud License & On-Premise | ~10% | Declining | Legacy transition |
| Hardware | ~8% | Declining | Exadata, SPARC |
| Services | ~7% | Flat | Professional services |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type | Present? | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Switching costs | 🟢 | Oracle DB embedded in banking, telecom, government. Migration $10M-$1B+ |
| Intangible assets | 🟢 | 40+ year brand in enterprise DB |
| Network effects | 🟡 | OCI partnerships (Azure, AWS) creating multi-cloud moat |
Moat Width: Wide (database); Narrow-to-Moderate (OCI cloud)
Bull Case
- Database monopoly — Oracle DB in 90%+ of large enterprises. No viable migration path.
- OCI growth — AI workload infrastructure growing 50%+ YoY.
- Extreme RSI 15 — At scale ($400B+), RSI < 15 historically reverses within 4-8 weeks.
- Multi-cloud partnerships — Azure/AWS Oracle DB services.
- Stargate AI infrastructure partner — With SoftBank, OpenAI.
Bear Case
- OCI losing ground to AWS/Azure in pure cloud.
- Legacy license decline — On-prem in structural decline.
- Cerner integration — $28B acquisition still digesting.
- Open-source DB competition — PostgreSQL eating SMB market.
Entry Strategy
| Strategy | Details |
|---|---|
| Priority | Fetch fresh data + research selloff catalyst |
| Entry trigger | RSI stabilizes above 20 for 3+ days |
| Starter | 1-2% if thesis confirmed |
| Stop | $125 (-18%) |
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | NEW — Found in RSI < 25 scan. RSI 15.2 (stale, 02/03). -20.4% 30D. Provisional: Research/Watch. |
| 2026-03-10 | Data still stale (02/03) — now 5+ weeks old. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| RSI 15.2 at $400B+ market cap | Rare signal for a company of this scale |
| Data stale 5+ weeks | Real-time picture entirely unknown |
| Stargate AI infrastructure partner | Long-term catalyst |
Open Questions
- CRITICAL: Current price/RSI unknown
- What caused the -20.4% 30D selloff?
- Is OCI tracking to Stargate commitments?
- What is Oracle's forward P/E at current levels?
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.