Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| PLTR |
$156.43 |
-0.5% |
+7.8% |
+12.1% |
— |
-3.1% |
66 |
🟠 Near Overbought |
🔒 Hold |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/03)
| Metric |
03/03 |
03/10 |
Change |
| Price |
$147.22 |
$156.43 |
+$9.21 (+6.3%) |
| RSI |
~57.5 |
66.3 |
+8.8 (approaching overbought) |
| SMA20 |
~$135.88 |
~$139.62 |
+$3.74 (SMA rising but price faster) |
| vs SMA |
+8.3% |
+12.0% |
Increasingly extended |
| 30D |
+5.5% |
+12.1% |
Strong momentum |
Update from 03/03: PLTR continues its breakout. Price rose from $147.22 to $156.43 (+6.3%). RSI at 66.3 is now in the "near overbought" zone. Price is +12.0% above SMA — the second most extended in our coverage (after INTU). 30D at +12.1% shows strong momentum. But at these levels, the risk/reward is unfavorable for new entries. Karp's $4.7B insider selling remains the overhang. AIP commercial at +121% YoY is the driver. Hold and wait for pullback.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Palantir builds AI and data integration platforms for government intelligence (Gotham), enterprise operations (Foundry), and commercial AI deployment (AIP).
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Gotham (US government), Foundry (enterprise), AIP (AI Platform), TITAN (defense) |
| Who pays |
US government, US commercial enterprises, international governments |
| Revenue model |
Long-term contracts (government), subscription + expansion (commercial) |
| How sticky |
Extremely high (government); High (commercial via AIP) |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| US Government |
~40% |
+45% YoY |
DoD, IC, TITAN |
| US Commercial |
~35% |
+121% YoY |
AIP adoption; fastest growing |
| International Government |
~15% |
+26% YoY |
NATO allies |
| International Commercial |
~10% |
+5% YoY |
Slower |
Competitive Analysis
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Government: 10+ years classified data. Commercial: AIP embedded. |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Security clearances, 20+ years trust |
| Network effects |
🟡 |
More AIP customers = better AI models |
Moat Width: Government = Wide; Commercial = Narrow (widening)
Bull Case
- US Commercial AIP +121% YoY — AI adoption accelerating.
- Government AI tailwind — TITAN, DoD digital modernization.
- Near 52wk high — Breakout momentum.
- NATO expansion — Defense spending increases.
Bear Case
- Karp $4.7B selling — Persistent supply pressure.
- RSI 66 = extended — Risk of pullback.
- 40x+ revenue valuation — Any miss = large selloff.
- 121% growth unsustainable — Deceleration expected.
Thesis Killers
- US Commercial growth drops below 50% for 2 quarters
- Government contract losses from DOGE reviews
- Karp sells $5B+ in a single quarter
Entry Strategy
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Add zone |
$135 - $145 |
Wait for RSI pullback |
| Support 1 |
$140 |
Prior SMA zone |
| Support 2 |
$125 |
Stop-loss |
| Resistance 1 |
$161 |
In-window 52wk high |
| Resistance 2 |
$167 |
Prior ATH territory |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created. RSI 29.7. $131.41. Karp selling. Action: Hold. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price $135.24 (+2.9%). RSI 42.2. Recovery underway. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Price $134.49. RSI 54.9. Approaching SMA breakout. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Breakout confirmed. $147.22 (+9.5%). AT 52wk high. RSI ~57.5. Hold. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Continued run. $156.43 (+6.3%). RSI 66.3 (computed). Near overbought. +12% above SMA. Hold; don't chase. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 30 → 42 → 55 → 57 → 66 |
Relentless uptrend; approaching overbought |
| Price: $131 → $156 (+19%) in 3 weeks |
AIP demand overwhelming insider supply |
| 30D: -19.7% → +12.1% in 2 weeks |
Most dramatic 30D reversal in coverage |
| +12% above SMA |
Second most extended stock — pullback risk |
Open Questions
- What catalyst drove the continued surge?
- Is Karp's selling schedule known?
- Has Q4 2025 US Commercial growth been confirmed?
- What are DOGE impacts on government contracts?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| Conflating Karp selling with fundamental concern |
AIP demand overrides insider supply |
| Exiting at RSI 30 would have been wrong |
RSI 30 was the bottom |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.