Price Data
| Timeframe |
Price / Change |
| Current |
$79.31 |
| 7D Change |
+7.5% (from ~$73.80) |
| 30D Change |
-14.6% (from $92.92) |
| 30D Low |
$67.85 (02/24 — capitulation) |
| 30D High |
$92.92 (02/10) |
| RSI (14) |
45.6 |
| SMA (20) |
$79.85 |
| BB Upper |
$91.63 |
| BB Lower |
$68.07 |
Price Action Summary
TEAM suffered a brutal 27% drawdown from $92.92 to $67.85 between 02/10 and 02/24, hitting its capitulation low alongside the broader SaaS selloff. The stock has since bounced ~17% off the low but remains well below SMA and the upper Bollinger Band. RSI recovered from ~28 (oversold) to 46 (neutral). MACD histogram turned positive on 03/05, signaling early momentum shift. The bounce stalled at $83-84 resistance (03/05-03/06) and pulled back to $79 today — sitting right on the SMA20.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Atlassian builds the software that software teams run on — Jira, Confluence, Bitbucket, and Trello are the operating system of engineering organizations worldwide.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Project management (Jira), knowledge management (Confluence), code hosting (Bitbucket), collaboration (Trello), IT service management (JSM), AI assistant (Rovo) |
| Who pays |
Enterprise engineering teams, IT departments, product orgs — 300K+ customers |
| Revenue model |
Cloud subscription (SaaS), Data Center licenses, Marketplace |
| How sticky |
Extremely sticky — entire engineering workflows built on Jira. Years of customization, integrations, tribal knowledge in Confluence |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| Cloud |
~63% |
+26% YoY |
Crossed $1B/quarter — milestone. Primary growth engine |
| Data Center |
~30% |
Slowing |
On-prem migrations still converting to Cloud |
| Marketplace & Other |
~7% |
Stable |
5,000+ third-party apps |
Geographic Mix
| Region |
Revenue % |
Notes |
| Americas |
~55% |
US-dominant |
| EMEA |
~30% |
Strong enterprise presence |
| Asia-Pacific |
~15% |
Home market (Australia), Japan growing |
Competitive Analysis
Industry Position
| Question |
Answer |
| Market share |
Dominant in Agile project management (~65K+ companies on Jira) |
| Market size (TAM) |
$40B+ (collaboration, DevOps, ITSM combined) |
| Growth rate |
~15% CAGR industry |
| Key competitors |
Microsoft (Azure DevOps), Monday.com, Asana, GitLab, Linear, ServiceNow |
| Position |
Leader — category-defining for developer tools |
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
Marketplace ecosystem (5,000+ apps), team-level lock-in |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Jira workflows, custom fields, automations, Confluence wikis — years of institutional knowledge. Migration = 6-12 month project |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
No sales force model — product-led growth keeps S&M low (~15% of revenue vs 40%+ peers) |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Brand synonymous with "agile project management." Jira = category name |
| Efficient scale |
🟡 |
Large TAM means competitors exist, but depth of integration creates natural moat |
Moat Assessment
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Widening (AI/Rovo adding new value layer, Cloud migration deepening lock-in)
Summary:
Atlassian has one of the widest moats in SaaS. Jira is so deeply embedded in enterprise engineering workflows that replacing it requires retraining thousands of engineers, migrating years of project data, and rebuilding hundreds of automations. The product-led growth model (no enterprise sales force) gives Atlassian structural cost advantages that competitors cannot easily replicate. Confluence creates a second moat — organizational knowledge becomes trapped in the platform.
Management Assessment
Leadership
| Role |
Name |
Since |
Background |
Notes |
| CEO |
Mike Cannon-Brookes |
2002 (sole CEO since Aug 2024) |
Co-founder, UNSW. Technical visionary. |
Now sole CEO after Farquhar stepped down |
| CFO |
Joseph Binz |
2024 |
Previously at Workday, Oracle |
|
| CTO |
Rajeev Rajan |
2021 |
Previously at VMware |
Driving AI/Rovo strategy |
| CRO |
Brian Duffy |
2023 |
Enterprise sales leader |
|
Founder Involvement
| Question |
Answer |
| Founder-led? |
Yes — Mike Cannon-Brookes (co-founder) is sole CEO |
| Founder ownership |
~20% each (Cannon-Brookes + Farquhar), super-voting shares |
| Skin in the game |
Strong — 40% combined founder ownership with super-voting control |
Capital Allocation
| Metric |
Track Record |
| M&A discipline |
Good — Trello ($425M), Opsgenie, Loom acquisitions all strategic and well-integrated |
| Buyback timing |
N/A — no significant buyback program |
| R&D investment |
High — ~45% of revenue, consistent |
| Debt management |
Moderate — some debt from acquisitions |
Red Flags
- Excessive exec compensation
- Insider selling during February dip — CFO, CTO, CRO all sold. No buying.
- Related party transactions
- Aggressive accounting
Financials
Key Metrics
| Metric |
Q2 FY2026 |
Q1 FY2026 |
FY2025 |
Trend |
| Revenue |
$1.59B |
~$1.49B |
~$5.3B |
📈 Accelerating |
| Revenue Growth YoY |
20.1% |
19.5% |
~24% |
📈 Reaccelerating |
| Gross Margin |
82.9% |
~83% |
~83% |
➡️ Stable & strong |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin |
~25.5% (guide) |
~24% |
~22% |
📈 Expanding |
| Cloud Revenue |
$1.0B+ |
~$950M |
~$3.4B |
📈 26% YoY growth |
Quality Checks
| Check |
Status |
Notes |
| FCF positive? |
🟢 |
Non-GAAP profitable; FCF positive on annual basis |
| Profitable? |
🟡 |
GAAP loss of $42.6M in Q2 (narrowing); Non-GAAP profitable |
| Debt manageable? |
🟢 |
Manageable debt levels |
| Cash runway |
🟢 |
$2B+ cash & equivalents |
Revenue Quality
| Factor |
Assessment |
| Recurring % |
93%+ (subscription-based) |
| Customer concentration |
Low — 300K+ customers, no single dependency |
| Contract length |
1-3 years (enterprise); monthly (SMB) |
| NRR/NDR |
120%+ (improving 3 consecutive quarters) |
Leading Indicators
| Indicator |
Value |
Signal |
| Revenue Acceleration |
+0.6% sequential |
🟢 Reaccelerating |
| YoY Growth |
+20.1% |
🟢 Above 20% target |
| Earnings Beat |
67% above estimate ($1.22 vs $0.73) |
🟢 Massive |
| RPO Growth |
+44% YoY to $3.8B |
🟢 Strong backlog |
| Insider Trading |
Net sell -$724K (90d) |
🔴 No buying |
| Cloud $1B Milestone |
Crossed in Q2 |
🟢 Inflection point |
Valuation
Current Multiples
| Metric |
Current |
5Y Avg |
Industry Avg |
| P/S |
3.8x |
~12x |
6.4x |
| EV/Revenue |
~3.9x |
~13x |
~7x |
| P/E (non-GAAP) |
~25x |
~60x |
~35x |
| P/FCF |
~30x |
~55x |
~35x |
Historical Range
| Metric |
Current |
5Y High |
5Y Low |
% of Range |
| P/S |
3.8x |
~25x |
~3.5x |
~1% (near all-time low) |
| EV/Revenue |
~3.9x |
~30x |
~3.5x |
~2% (near floor) |
Fair Value Estimate
| Method |
Fair Value |
Upside |
| P/S at 6x (peer avg) |
~$126 |
+59% |
| P/S at 8x (modest premium) |
~$168 |
+112% |
| Analyst consensus |
$206 (avg), $140-315 (range) |
+160% |
My Fair Value: $110-130 (based on 6-7x forward P/S on ~$6.5B FY2026 revenue). Current price of $79 offers meaningful upside but the market is pricing in execution risk.
Bull Case
Why This Could Work (5 Reasons)
Deepest moat in SaaS — switching costs are a fortress
- Evidence: Entire engineering orgs (thousands of engineers) run on Jira. Confluence holds years of institutional knowledge. Migration is a 6-12 month enterprise project.
- Implication: Revenue is extremely durable even in downturns. Customers may reduce seats but rarely churn entirely.
AI monetization via Rovo is real and early
- Evidence: Rovo hit 5M monthly active users. $20/user/month pricing = massive ARPU expansion opportunity. Rovo Dev cuts PR cycle times by 45%.
- Implication: If 50% of Jira users adopt Rovo at $20/user, that is billions in incremental ARR on top of existing subscriptions.
Cloud transition creates a compounding flywheel
- Evidence: Cloud crossed $1B/quarter (+26% YoY). Data Center customers converting to Cloud increases stickiness and enables AI features.
- Implication: Higher margins, better retention, more upsell surface area.
RPO surge signals accelerating demand
- Evidence: RPO grew 44% YoY to $3.8B — far outpacing revenue growth.
- Implication: Revenue acceleration baked in for next 2-3 quarters. This is a leading indicator the Street may be underappreciating.
Valuation at historical trough
- Evidence: P/S of 3.8x vs 5Y average of ~12x. Near all-time low multiples for a 20%+ grower with 83% gross margins.
- Implication: Even modest re-rating to 6x P/S = $126 (+59% upside).
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| Rovo adoption exceeds expectations + revenue reaccelerates to 25%+ |
$130-150 (6-7x P/S re-rating) |
| SaaS sentiment recovers + Fed signals rate cuts |
$110-120 (sector-wide multiple expansion) |
| RPO converts to revenue beats for 2-3 quarters |
$100+ near-term |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong (5 Risks)
Insiders selling into the dip — smart money not buying
- How it plays out: CFO, CTO, CRO all sold in February during the capitulation. Zero insider buying. If insiders do not buy at $68-73, the "cheap" narrative weakens.
- Probability: Medium — could be routine 10b5-1 plans, but the optics are poor.
AI disruption to developer workflows
- How it plays out: AI coding assistants (GitHub Copilot, Cursor, Devin) could reduce the complexity of project management, reducing Jira's value proposition. Linear and other modern tools gain share among AI-native teams.
- Probability: Low-Medium — Atlassian is responding with Rovo, but the threat is real long-term.
Data Center revenue cliff
- How it plays out: Data Center (30% of revenue) is a melting ice cube as customers migrate to Cloud. If Cloud growth does not fully offset DC decline, total growth decelerates.
- Probability: Medium — management is managing the transition but the timing creates quarterly noise.
Macro-driven SaaS de-rating persists
- How it plays out: Higher-for-longer rates keep SaaS multiples compressed. TEAM stays cheap for 12-18 months despite strong fundamentals.
- Probability: Medium — the Feb selloff was macro, not company-specific. Could continue.
GAAP profitability still elusive
- How it plays out: Despite non-GAAP profitability, GAAP losses ($42.6M in Q2) concern value investors. SBC remains elevated.
- Probability: Low — non-GAAP margins are expanding and the trajectory is clear.
Thesis Killers
- NRR drops below 110% (signals customer contraction, not expansion)
- Cloud revenue growth decelerates below 15% for 2+ quarters
- Major enterprise customer losses to Microsoft Azure DevOps or modern competitors
- Rovo adoption stalls — AI monetization thesis breaks
Downside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| SaaS selloff resumes + macro worsens |
Retest $67-68 (Feb low) |
| Growth decelerates to <15% + no AI traction |
$55-60 (3x P/S on lower estimates) |
Market-Moving News
Recent News
| Date |
Headline |
Impact |
Relevance |
| 2026-02-05 |
Q2 FY2026 earnings beat — $1.22 EPS vs $0.73 est, Cloud crosses $1B |
🟢 |
Massive beat, but stock sold off with sector |
| 2026-02-20 |
Insider selling — CFO, CTO, CRO all sold shares |
🔴 |
No insider buying during capitulation. Red flag. |
| 2026-03-05 |
Stock surges +7.4% on volume (12.2M shares vs 7M avg) |
🟢 |
Recovery bounce, possibly institutional accumulation |
| Ongoing |
Rovo AI hits 5M MAUs, Rovo Dev GA |
🟢 |
AI monetization thesis gaining traction |
News Patterns
TEAM tends to sell off post-earnings even on beats if guidance is merely "in-line." The market cares most about Cloud revenue growth rate, NRR trends, and AI adoption metrics. Macro sentiment (rate fears, SaaS rotation) has outsized impact due to high-multiple classification — even though current multiples are historically depressed.
| Symbol |
Name |
Relationship |
30D |
Status |
Notes |
| IGV |
iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF |
SaaS sector |
-12% |
🔴 |
Broad SaaS de-rating |
| WCLD |
WisdomTree Cloud Computing |
Cloud peers |
-15% |
🔴 |
Cloud under heavy pressure |
| XLK |
Technology Select Sector SPDR |
Broad tech |
-8% |
🟡 |
Less severe than SaaS |
Sector Context
This is a sector-wide selloff, not a TEAM-specific problem. Nearly all SaaS names got crushed in February. TEAM's -14.6% 30D is in line with peers. The selloff appears macro-driven (rate fears, rotation to value) rather than competitive loss. This is important — macro selloffs in quality names create the best entry points.
Cross-References (Where This Appears in Our System)
| Location |
File |
Context |
| OHLC Data |
Tracked |
20 days of price data |
| Scans |
Various full scans |
Tracked in SaaS/Dev Tools category |
| Ticker |
Why Related |
Suggested Placement |
Priority |
Notes |
| MNDY |
Monday.com — direct Jira competitor in project mgmt |
candidates/dev-tools/ |
🟡 |
Watch for relative strength |
| GTLB |
GitLab — DevOps platform competitor (Bitbucket rival) |
candidates/dev-tools/ |
🟡 |
AI-native DevOps play |
| NOW |
ServiceNow — ITSM competitor (JSM rival) |
candidates/enterprise-saas/ |
🟡 |
Larger, more mature |
| MSFT |
Microsoft — Azure DevOps, primary enterprise competitor |
N/A |
🟡 |
Too large for direct comp but watch DevOps moves |
Catalysts & Timing
Upcoming Catalysts
| Date |
Event |
Impact |
Watch For |
| ~2026-04-24 |
Q3 FY2026 Earnings |
🟢 |
Cloud growth rate, Rovo adoption metrics, RPO trend |
| 2026 H1 |
Rovo consumption pricing rollout |
🟢 |
New monetization model for AI features |
| Ongoing |
Macro/Fed rate decision |
🟡 |
SaaS multiple expansion catalyst |
Key Dates
| Event |
Frequency |
Next Date |
| Earnings |
Quarterly |
~2026-04-24 (Q3 FY2026) |
| Team conference (annual) |
Annual |
~2026 H2 |
Entry Strategy
Position Sizing
| Conviction |
Allocation |
| Speculative |
0% (research only) |
| Low |
1-2% |
| Medium |
3-5% |
| High |
5-10% |
My conviction: Medium (upgrade to High if insiders buy on retest)
Target allocation: 3-4%
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry zone |
$68-73 (retest of Feb capitulation low near BB lower band $68.07) |
| Starter position |
50% of target at $72-73 |
| Add on |
Insider buying confirmation OR RSI < 30 retest |
| Full position at |
Insider buying + hold of $68 support + RSI recovery |
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$75 (recent consolidation) |
Weak — already tested and bounced |
| Support 2 |
$68 (Feb capitulation low / BB lower band) |
Strong — high volume reversal |
| Support 3 |
$60 |
Psychological level, stop-loss zone |
| Resistance 1 |
$83-84 |
Recent bounce ceiling (03/05-06) |
| Resistance 2 |
$92-93 |
30D ago level, former support |
| 52-week high |
~$147 |
Major resistance, would require re-rating |
Research Checklist
Fundamentals
- Review Q2 FY2026 earnings and guidance
- Understand revenue drivers (Cloud, DC, Marketplace)
- Read most recent 10-K/10-Q in detail
- Listen to last 2 earnings calls
Competitive
- Map competitive landscape (MSFT, MNDY, GTLB, NOW)
- Assess moat durability — Wide and widening
- Check customer reviews/NPS for Rovo AI
Management
- Research CEO (Cannon-Brookes, sole CEO since Aug 2024)
- Check insider ownership (~40% founder combined)
- Review insider trading (selling, no buying — red flag)
Valuation
- Review historical multiples (near all-time low P/S)
- Compare to peers (3.8x P/S vs 6.4x peer avg)
- Identify entry/exit zones ($68-73 entry, $60 stop)
Risk
- Write bear case
- Identify thesis-killers
- Set stop-loss level ($60)
Sources
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-03-10 |
Created deep dive. Price $79.31, RSI 46. Watch for retest of $68-73 entry zone with insider buying confirmation. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RPO grew 44% YoY to $3.8B — far outpacing 20% revenue growth |
Revenue acceleration is baked in for 2-3 quarters. The Street may be underpricing this. |
| P/S at 3.8x vs 5Y avg of ~12x and peer avg of 6.4x |
TEAM is trading at historically depressed multiples for a 20%+ grower with 83% gross margins. Even modest re-rating = significant upside. |
| Insiders sold during Feb capitulation — zero buying at $68-73 |
The biggest red flag. If the CFO, CTO, and CRO will not buy their own stock at multi-year lows, why should we rush in? Wait for insider buying as confirmation. |
| Rovo hit 5M MAUs + $20/user pricing = massive ARPU expansion |
AI monetization is not hypothetical — it is happening. If 50% of paid users adopt Rovo, that is $2B+ in incremental ARR. |
| Cloud crossed $1B/quarter for the first time |
Inflection point. Cloud is now the majority of revenue and growing 26% YoY. The flywheel is working. |
Open Questions
- Why are insiders selling at multi-year lows? Are these pre-planned 10b5-1 sales or discretionary?
- How quickly will Rovo consumption pricing roll out and what is the early uptake?
- What is the timeline for Data Center revenue to stabilize or reach its terminal decline rate?
- Is Linear/GitLab gaining meaningful share among AI-native engineering teams?
Mistakes (If Applicable)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| N/A — first entry |
Do not chase the bounce. Wait for the retest with insider confirmation. |
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.