Conviction: High
Status: Hold / Accumulate on pullback — RSI 55.4, price $341.50, near 52wk high
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 55.4 (computed) — neutral. Price $341.50, -0.3% today, +6.4% 7D, -0.4% 30D. SMA20 ~$330.22 — price +3.4% ABOVE SMA. Near in-window 52wk high. |
| Moat |
Wide (custom AI ASICs, VMware enterprise base) |
| Key insight |
AVGO holding near highs after post-earnings surge. Price dipped slightly from $345.75 (03/10) to $341.50 (-1.2%). RSI at 55.4 is neutral. AI revenue ($8.2B guided), VMware integration, and $73B backlog provide multi-year visibility. Entry window at $300-320 has passed. Hold existing; add on pullbacks to $320-330. |
Action Matrix
| Field |
Value |
| Action |
🔒 Hold / 📈 Accumulate on pullback |
| RSI |
55.4 (computed) |
| vs SMA20 |
+3.4% above |
| 30D Change |
-0.4% |
| 3M Change |
-15.8% |
| Entry Zone |
$310-330 (pullback zone) |
| Stop-Loss |
$256 (-25%) |
| Target |
$416 (+22%) |
| Conviction |
🟢 High |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| AVGO |
$341.50 |
-0.3% |
+6.4% |
-0.4% |
-15.8% |
55 |
🟡 Neutral |
🔒 Hold |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/10)
| Metric |
03/10 |
03/11 |
Change |
| Price |
$345.75 |
$341.50 |
-$4.25 (-1.2%) |
| RSI |
55.9 |
55.4 |
-0.5 (flat) |
| SMA20 |
~$329.52 |
~$330.22 |
+$0.70 |
Update from 03/10: Minor pullback from $345.75 to $341.50 (-1.2%). RSI essentially flat at 55.4. Still near 52wk high. FQ1'26 earnings catalyst fully absorbed. Action: Hold; add on pullback to $320-330.
Company Overview
Broadcom is one of the largest semiconductor companies ($1.6T market cap). Two segments:
- Semiconductor Solutions (~57%): Custom AI accelerators (Google TPU, Meta MTIA), networking chips.
- Infrastructure Software (~43%): VMware (acquired $69B), CA Technologies, Symantec.
Bull Case
- AI ASIC dominance — $8.2B AI revenue, $73B backlog.
- VMware margin expansion — Gross margins toward 70%.
- FCF machine — 40.7% margin.
- Earnings catalyst played out positively — Post-FQ1'26 surge intact.
Bear Case
- Insider selling -$1.1B — Notable magnitude.
- Customer concentration — Google, Meta = large AI revenue share.
- VMware integration risk — $69B acquisition still digesting.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-03-04 |
Created. Price $320.42, RSI 33.3. Accumulate. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Post-earnings surge. $345.75 (+7.9%). RSI 55.9. Near 52wk high. |
| 2026-03-11 |
Minor pullback. $341.50 (-1.2%). RSI 55.4 (computed). Holding near highs. Action: Hold. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| Post-earnings rally holding |
Market validated FQ1'26 results |
| RSI stable at 55 after surge |
Healthy consolidation, not reversal |
Open Questions
- What is FQ2'26 AI revenue guidance?
- VMware integration milestones on track?
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.