Conviction: Medium
Status: Watching — RSI 49, pullback continuing. Price $269.32, +28.7% 30D, SMA20 $253.74 (+6.1% above).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 49 — neutral after sharp recovery and pullback. Price $269.32, -6.1% today, -1.8% 7D, +28.7% 30D. SMA20 $253.74. Price +6.1% above SMA. |
| Moat |
Moderate (SMB CRM/marketing ecosystem) |
| Key insight |
HUBS pulling back from $296.56 peak. RSI cooled from 57 to 49 — healthy. Still +28.7% 30D showing the recovery was real. Watch $250-260 (SMA zone) for a higher-conviction entry. No insider buying during the panic remains a yellow flag. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔍 Watch for pullback to SMA |
Recovery complete, now digesting gains. Wait for SMA20 retest. |
| Entry Zone (pullback) |
$250 - $260 |
SMA20 retest zone |
| Entry Zone (aggressive) |
$235 - $245 |
Feb consolidation zone |
| Stop-Loss |
$205 (-20%) |
Below Feb lows |
| Target |
$330 (+23%) |
Recovery toward pre-selloff levels |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| HUBS |
$269.32 |
-6.1% |
-1.8% |
+28.7% |
-30.4% |
49 |
🟡 Neutral / Pullback |
🔍 Watch |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/10)
| Metric |
03/10 |
03/11 |
Change |
| Price |
$270.63 |
$269.32 |
-$1.31 (-0.5%) |
| RSI |
57 |
49 |
-8 (cooling) |
| SMA20 |
$253.81 |
$253.74 |
~flat |
Update from 03/10: Minor pullback continues. RSI cooling from 57 to 49 is healthy — reducing overbought risk. Price still +6.1% above SMA. The 30D +28.7% confirms recovery was real. Wait for SMA retest at $250-260 for better entry.
Bull Case
- SMB CRM monopoly — Largest share of SMB CRM market.
- AI integration — HubSpot Breeze AI across all hubs.
- Recovery validated — +42% bounce from Feb lows held.
Bear Case
- No insider buying during panic — Smart money passed.
- AI disruption — Free AI tools replacing core functions.
- SMB spending freeze risk — SMBs cut software first in recessions.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-03-03 |
NEW — Found in RSI < 25 scan. RSI 16 (stale). Provisional: Watch. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Fresh data. RSI 57. Recovery complete. Watch for pullback. |
| 2026-03-11 |
$269.32 (-0.5%). RSI 49 (computed). Pullback continues. Cooling toward SMA. Watch. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI cooling from 57 to 49 |
Healthy pullback, approaching better entry zone |
| 30D +28.7% holding |
Recovery was real, not a dead cat bounce |
| No insider buying at lows |
Remains a yellow flag for conviction |
Open Questions
- What caused the original -35% selloff?
- Will pullback reach SMA20 ($254)?
- Why didn't insiders buy at $207-232?