Deep Dive Ticker Tape
Article published Mar 11, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
INTU Price Structure
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Conviction: High Status: Hold — RSI 47.9, price $440.65, pulled back from 52wk high, now in healthier zone
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 RSI 47.9 (computed) — neutral. Price $440.65, -2.9% today, +4.2% 7D, +10.3% 30D. SMA20 ~$411.98 — price +7.0% ABOVE SMA. Pulled back from $473.67 near-high. |
| Moat | Wide (TurboTax monopoly, QuickBooks SMB dominance) |
| Key insight | INTU pulled back from $473.67 (03/10) to $440.65 (-7.0%). RSI cooled from 62.8 to 47.9 — a healthy reset from near-overbought to neutral. Tax season thesis still playing out (+10.3% 30D). The pullback brings INTU back to a reasonable zone. Hold existing; the -$33 pullback may create an add opportunity if it stabilizes here. |
Action Matrix
| Action | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Current | 🔒 Hold | RSI cooled to 47.9. Pullback from extended levels is healthy. |
| Add Zone | $420 - $445 | Current $440.65 — near zone if pullback stabilizes |
| Stop-Loss | $400 (-9%) | Below SMA and key support |
| Target | $520 (+18%) | Recovery toward full levels |
Extended analysis
Price Data
| Stock | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | $440.65 | -2.9% | +4.2% | +10.3% | -34.7% | 48 | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/10)
| Metric | 03/10 | 03/11 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $473.67 | $440.65 | -$33.02 (-7.0%) |
| RSI | 62.8 | 47.9 | -14.9 (healthy reset) |
| SMA20 | ~$408.76 | ~$411.98 | +$3.22 |
| vs SMA | +15.9% | +7.0% | Much less extended |
Update from 03/10: Significant pullback from the extended $473.67 level. RSI reset from 62.8 (near overbought) to 47.9 (neutral) — exactly what was needed. Price still +7.0% above SMA and +10.3% 30D. Tax season thesis intact. This pullback may create a healthier add zone than the extended levels.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Intuit is the dominant tax software (TurboTax) and SMB accounting (QuickBooks) provider with near-monopoly positions.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type | Present? | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Switching costs | 🟢 | Multi-year tax history; QuickBooks data migration cost |
| Intangible assets | 🟢 | TurboTax brand (#1 consumer awareness) |
| Cost advantages | 🟢 | Scale across 40M+ annual TurboTax filers |
Moat Width: Wide
Bull Case
- Tax season catalyst playing out — +10.3% 30D.
- RSI reset to 48 creates better risk/reward — No longer extended.
- QuickBooks AI integration — GenAI bookkeeping assistant.
- Most dramatic recovery in coverage — RSI 10.6 → 63 → 48.
Bear Case
- IRS Direct File expansion — TurboTax TAM risk.
- AI disruption — New AI-native tax tools.
- 3M -34.7% — Still significant distance from highs.
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Created. RSI 10.6 extreme. $399.40. Action: Strong Buy. |
| 2026-02-22 | $380.55 (-4.7%). RSI 17.6. Maintaining Strong Buy. |
| 2026-02-26 | $389.33 (+2.3%). RSI 34.6. Accumulate. |
| 2026-03-03 | $433.35 (+11.3%). RSI ~49.6. Hold. |
| 2026-03-10 | $473.67 (+9.3%). RSI 62.8. Near 52wk high. Extended. Hold; don't chase. |
| 2026-03-11 | $440.65 (-7.0%). RSI 47.9 (computed). Healthy pullback from extended. Hold. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| RSI 63 → 48 pullback | Extended stocks correct — this is healthy and expected |
| Price -7% but still +10.3% 30D | Pullback within context of strong recovery |
| Now +7% above SMA vs +16% before | Much healthier positioning |
Open Questions
- When does INTU report Q2 2026 (tax season results)?
- Is TurboTax market share holding against IRS Direct File?
- Will pullback stabilize at $430-440 or continue lower?