Conviction: High
Status: Hold — RSI 47.9, price $440.65, pulled back from 52wk high, now in healthier zone
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 47.9 (computed) — neutral. Price $440.65, -2.9% today, +4.2% 7D, +10.3% 30D. SMA20 ~$411.98 — price +7.0% ABOVE SMA. Pulled back from $473.67 near-high. |
| Moat |
Wide (TurboTax monopoly, QuickBooks SMB dominance) |
| Key insight |
INTU pulled back from $473.67 (03/10) to $440.65 (-7.0%). RSI cooled from 62.8 to 47.9 — a healthy reset from near-overbought to neutral. Tax season thesis still playing out (+10.3% 30D). The pullback brings INTU back to a reasonable zone. Hold existing; the -$33 pullback may create an add opportunity if it stabilizes here. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔒 Hold |
RSI cooled to 47.9. Pullback from extended levels is healthy. |
| Add Zone |
$420 - $445 |
Current $440.65 — near zone if pullback stabilizes |
| Stop-Loss |
$400 (-9%) |
Below SMA and key support |
| Target |
$520 (+18%) |
Recovery toward full levels |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| INTU |
$440.65 |
-2.9% |
+4.2% |
+10.3% |
-34.7% |
48 |
🟡 Neutral |
🔒 Hold |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/10)
| Metric |
03/10 |
03/11 |
Change |
| Price |
$473.67 |
$440.65 |
-$33.02 (-7.0%) |
| RSI |
62.8 |
47.9 |
-14.9 (healthy reset) |
| SMA20 |
~$408.76 |
~$411.98 |
+$3.22 |
| vs SMA |
+15.9% |
+7.0% |
Much less extended |
Update from 03/10: Significant pullback from the extended $473.67 level. RSI reset from 62.8 (near overbought) to 47.9 (neutral) — exactly what was needed. Price still +7.0% above SMA and +10.3% 30D. Tax season thesis intact. This pullback may create a healthier add zone than the extended levels.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Intuit is the dominant tax software (TurboTax) and SMB accounting (QuickBooks) provider with near-monopoly positions.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Multi-year tax history; QuickBooks data migration cost |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
TurboTax brand (#1 consumer awareness) |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Scale across 40M+ annual TurboTax filers |
Moat Width: Wide
Bull Case
- Tax season catalyst playing out — +10.3% 30D.
- RSI reset to 48 creates better risk/reward — No longer extended.
- QuickBooks AI integration — GenAI bookkeeping assistant.
- Most dramatic recovery in coverage — RSI 10.6 → 63 → 48.
Bear Case
- IRS Direct File expansion — TurboTax TAM risk.
- AI disruption — New AI-native tax tools.
- 3M -34.7% — Still significant distance from highs.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created. RSI 10.6 extreme. $399.40. Action: Strong Buy. |
| 2026-02-22 |
$380.55 (-4.7%). RSI 17.6. Maintaining Strong Buy. |
| 2026-02-26 |
$389.33 (+2.3%). RSI 34.6. Accumulate. |
| 2026-03-03 |
$433.35 (+11.3%). RSI ~49.6. Hold. |
| 2026-03-10 |
$473.67 (+9.3%). RSI 62.8. Near 52wk high. Extended. Hold; don't chase. |
| 2026-03-11 |
$440.65 (-7.0%). RSI 47.9 (computed). Healthy pullback from extended. Hold. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 63 → 48 pullback |
Extended stocks correct — this is healthy and expected |
| Price -7% but still +10.3% 30D |
Pullback within context of strong recovery |
| Now +7% above SMA vs +16% before |
Much healthier positioning |
Open Questions
- When does INTU report Q2 2026 (tax season results)?
- Is TurboTax market share holding against IRS Direct File?
- Will pullback stabilize at $430-440 or continue lower?