Conviction: Medium-High
Status: FRESH DATA — RSI 39.6, price $485.85, recovered from RSI 8.8, approaching neutral
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 39.6 (computed, FRESH) — approaching neutral. Price $485.85, -1.6% today, -3.2% 7D, -2.1% 30D. SMA20 ~$495.86 — price -2.0% below SMA. |
| Moat |
Wide (surgical robotics monopoly — da Vinci system) |
| Key insight |
ISRG data is now FRESH after 5+ weeks stale! RSI recovered from the extreme 8.8 to 39.6 — the stock bounced from $476 and is now at $485.85. The da Vinci monopoly thesis is unquestionably intact. Price is slightly below SMA, approaching neutral territory. The RSI 8.8 was a historical extreme that has now fully resolved. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
📈 Accumulate |
RSI recovered to 39.6, data fresh, monopoly moat. Still below SMA — room for recovery. |
| Entry Zone |
$470 - $500 |
Current $485.85 — IN ZONE |
| Stop-Loss |
$405 (-17%) |
Below key support |
| Target |
$600 (+24%) |
Recovery toward recent levels |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| ISRG |
$485.85 |
-1.6% |
-3.2% |
-2.1% |
-11.2% |
40 |
🟡 Approaching Neutral |
📈 Accumulate |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/10 stale)
| Metric |
03/10 (stale) |
03/11 (fresh) |
Change |
| Price |
$476.32 (stale) |
$485.85 |
+$9.53 (+2.0%) |
| RSI |
8.8 (stale) |
39.6 |
+30.8 (massive recovery) |
| SMA20 |
N/A |
~$495.86 |
Now trackable |
Update from 03/10: CRITICAL — ISRG data is FRESH after 5+ weeks stale. RSI 8.8 was the most extreme in our universe — it has recovered to 39.6. Price rose from $476.32 to $485.85 (+2.0%). Price is -2.0% below SMA, approaching convergence. Da Vinci monopoly + consumable flywheel thesis completely intact. Action: Accumulate.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Intuitive Surgical manufactures the da Vinci robotic surgical system, with a near-monopoly in soft-tissue robotic surgery.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Surgeon training 12-18 months, $2M+ investment |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
10,000+ patents, FDA approvals, 30+ years data |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
More procedures = more outcome data = more placements |
| Efficient scale |
🟢 |
10,000+ installed systems globally |
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Widening — da Vinci 5 driving upgrade cycle
Bull Case
- da Vinci monopoly — 10,000+ installed systems. No serious competitor for 5+ years.
- Recurring consumable flywheel — Each system generates $500K-$1M+ annually.
- RSI 8.8 → 39.6 recovery — Bottom confirmed.
- da Vinci 5 upgrade cycle — New generation driving replacements.
Bear Case
- Insider selling persists — $282.6M net selling.
- -1.6% today, -3.2% 7D — Some near-term weakness.
- Medtronic Hugo FDA approval risk — Long-term competitive threat.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created. RSI 8.8 extreme. $476.32. Action: Buy. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Data stale. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Data stale. 3+ weeks. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Data stale. 4 weeks. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Data stale. 5+ weeks. CRITICAL. |
| 2026-03-11 |
FRESH DATA. $485.85. RSI 39.6 (computed). RSI recovered from 8.8 extreme. Accumulate. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 8.8 → 39.6 confirmed with fresh data |
Historical extreme has fully resolved |
| Price recovered from $476 to $486 |
Modest +2% but RSI improvement is the key signal |
| Data was stale 5+ weeks |
Must fetch data before every update going forward |
Open Questions
- What is da Vinci 5 placement pace?
- Are insider sales on 10b5-1 schedule?
- What is procedure growth rate in Q1 2026?