Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| TEAM |
$78.01 |
-4.9% |
+1.1% |
-10.3% |
-52.2% |
37 |
🟡 Approaching Oversold |
🔍 Watch |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/10)
| Metric |
03/10 |
03/11 |
Change |
| Price |
$79.31 |
$78.01 |
-$1.30 (-1.6%) |
| RSI |
45.6 |
37.1 |
-8.5 (declining) |
| SMA20 |
$79.85 |
$79.78 |
~flat |
| vs SMA |
-0.7% |
-2.2% |
Sliding below SMA |
Update from 03/10: TEAM continues weakening. RSI declined from 46 to 37 — approaching oversold. Price dropped below SMA. The -4.9% today suggests renewed selling pressure. At 3.8x P/S with 83% gross margins and 20% growth, TEAM is historically cheap. But insiders are not buying. Watch $68-73 for higher-conviction entry.
Key Fundamentals
| Metric |
Value |
| Revenue Growth |
+20.1% YoY (Q2 FY2026) |
| Gross Margin |
82.9% |
| Cloud Revenue |
$1.0B+/quarter (+26% YoY) |
| RPO |
$3.8B (+44% YoY) |
| Earnings Beat |
100% (67% above est) |
| P/S |
3.8x (5Y avg ~12x) |
Bull Case
- Widest moat in SaaS — Jira/Confluence switching costs are a fortress.
- RPO +44% YoY — Revenue acceleration baked in for 2-3 quarters.
- Rovo AI monetization — 5M MAUs, $20/user/month pricing.
- P/S at historical trough — 3.8x vs 12x 5Y average.
- 3M -52.2% — Massive discount if thesis intact.
Bear Case
- Insiders sold during capitulation — Zero buying at multi-year lows.
- AI disruption — Linear, GitHub Copilot gaining share.
- Data Center revenue cliff — 30% of revenue in structural decline.
- GAAP still unprofitable — $42.6M loss in Q2.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-03-10 |
Created. $79.31, RSI 46. Watch for $68-73 retest with insider buying. |
| 2026-03-11 |
$78.01 (-1.6%). RSI 37.1 (computed). Approaching oversold. -4.9% today. Watch. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI declining from 46 to 37 |
Heading toward $68-73 retest zone |
| -52.2% 3M |
Among worst performers — but SaaS-wide selloff |
| 3.8x P/S vs 12x 5Y avg |
Historical valuation trough |
Open Questions
- Why are insiders selling at multi-year lows?
- How quickly is Rovo AI consumption revenue growing?
- Will the $68 Feb low hold on retest?