Deep Dive Ticker Tape
Article published Mar 11, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
TMO Price Structure
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Conviction: Medium-High Status: Buy — RSI 32.9, price $495.61, still in entry zone, SMA gap widening
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 RSI 32.9 (computed) — approaching oversold. Price $495.61, -0.9% today, -2.3% 7D, -6.0% 30D. SMA20 ~$511.29 — price -3.1% below SMA. |
| Moat | Wide (lab equipment, reagents, instruments monopoly) |
| Key insight | TMO pulled back from $509.97 (03/10) to $495.61 (-2.8%). RSI declined from 38.4 to 32.9 — approaching oversold again after the recovery stalled. SMA gap widened from -0.8% to -3.1%. Still in entry zone ($490-$525). The stepwise recovery (5.5 → 19 → 32 → 31 → 38 → 33) shows the base-building is taking longer than expected. Buy maintained — wide moat at oversold levels. |
Action Matrix
| Action | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Current | ✅ Buy | RSI 33 oversold, in entry zone, wide moat. Base-building continues. |
| Entry Zone | $490 - $525 | Current $495.61 — IN ZONE |
| Stop-Loss | $440 (-11%) | Below multi-year support |
| Target | $650 (+31%) | Recovery toward prior levels |
Extended analysis
Price Data
| Stock | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMO | $495.61 | -0.9% | -2.3% | -6.0% | -14.3% | 33 | 🟡 Approaching Oversold | ✅ Buy |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/10)
| Metric | 03/10 | 03/11 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $509.97 | $495.61 | -$14.36 (-2.8%) |
| RSI | 38.4 | 32.9 | -5.5 (recovery stalled) |
| SMA20 | ~$514.21 | ~$511.29 | -$2.92 (SMA declining) |
| vs SMA | -0.8% | -3.1% | Gap widened |
Update from 03/10: TMO pulled back, stalling the recovery. RSI declined from 38.4 to 32.9 — approaching oversold territory again. SMA gap widened from -0.8% to -3.1%. The base-building is taking longer than expected but thesis unchanged. Still in entry zone. Wide moat + lab/pharma essential infrastructure = buy at these levels.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Thermo Fisher Scientific is the world's largest life sciences company, providing instruments, reagents, and services to every lab globally.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type | Present? | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Switching costs | 🟢 | Scientific protocols lock in specific instruments/reagents |
| Intangible assets | 🟢 | Brand trust in research |
| Cost advantages | 🟢 | $45B+ revenue = unmatched scale |
| Efficient scale | 🟢 | Only company covering full lab workflow |
Moat Width: Wide
Bull Case
- Essential infrastructure — Every lab needs TMO products.
- RSI 33 in entry zone — Oversold with wide moat.
- Bioproduction secular tailwind — mRNA, cell therapy, gene editing.
- Picks-and-shovels for pharma AI — AI drug discovery increases demand.
Bear Case
- Pharma R&D budget cuts — Largest segment cutting spending.
- Insider selling $323.3M — Among highest in coverage.
- China exposure ~15% — Geopolitical risk.
- Recovery stalling — RSI 38 → 33 reversal.
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Created. RSI 5.5 extreme. $504.82. Buy. |
| 2026-02-22 | $510.93 (+1.2%). RSI 19.2. Buy. |
| 2026-02-26 | $515.03. RSI 32.2. Near entry zone top. Buy. |
| 2026-03-03 | $507.81 (-1.4%). RSI 31.2. Consolidation. Buy. |
| 2026-03-10 | $509.97 (+0.4%). RSI 38.4. SMA gap nearly closed. Buy. |
| 2026-03-11 | $495.61 (-2.8%). RSI 32.9 (computed). Recovery stalled. SMA gap widened. Buy maintained. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| RSI 38 → 33: recovery stalled | Base-building taking longer than expected |
| SMA gap: -0.8% → -3.1% | Price pulled away from convergence |
| Still in $490-$525 entry zone | Buy thesis unchanged at these levels |
Open Questions
- What drove the -2.8% pullback? Sector rotation?
- When does TMO report next earnings?
- Are insider sales on scheduled plans?