Conviction: Medium-High
Status: Buy — RSI 32.9, price $495.61, still in entry zone, SMA gap widening
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 32.9 (computed) — approaching oversold. Price $495.61, -0.9% today, -2.3% 7D, -6.0% 30D. SMA20 ~$511.29 — price -3.1% below SMA. |
| Moat |
Wide (lab equipment, reagents, instruments monopoly) |
| Key insight |
TMO pulled back from $509.97 (03/10) to $495.61 (-2.8%). RSI declined from 38.4 to 32.9 — approaching oversold again after the recovery stalled. SMA gap widened from -0.8% to -3.1%. Still in entry zone ($490-$525). The stepwise recovery (5.5 → 19 → 32 → 31 → 38 → 33) shows the base-building is taking longer than expected. Buy maintained — wide moat at oversold levels. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
✅ Buy |
RSI 33 oversold, in entry zone, wide moat. Base-building continues. |
| Entry Zone |
$490 - $525 |
Current $495.61 — IN ZONE |
| Stop-Loss |
$440 (-11%) |
Below multi-year support |
| Target |
$650 (+31%) |
Recovery toward prior levels |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| TMO |
$495.61 |
-0.9% |
-2.3% |
-6.0% |
-14.3% |
33 |
🟡 Approaching Oversold |
✅ Buy |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/10)
| Metric |
03/10 |
03/11 |
Change |
| Price |
$509.97 |
$495.61 |
-$14.36 (-2.8%) |
| RSI |
38.4 |
32.9 |
-5.5 (recovery stalled) |
| SMA20 |
~$514.21 |
~$511.29 |
-$2.92 (SMA declining) |
| vs SMA |
-0.8% |
-3.1% |
Gap widened |
Update from 03/10: TMO pulled back, stalling the recovery. RSI declined from 38.4 to 32.9 — approaching oversold territory again. SMA gap widened from -0.8% to -3.1%. The base-building is taking longer than expected but thesis unchanged. Still in entry zone. Wide moat + lab/pharma essential infrastructure = buy at these levels.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Thermo Fisher Scientific is the world's largest life sciences company, providing instruments, reagents, and services to every lab globally.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Scientific protocols lock in specific instruments/reagents |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Brand trust in research |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
$45B+ revenue = unmatched scale |
| Efficient scale |
🟢 |
Only company covering full lab workflow |
Moat Width: Wide
Bull Case
- Essential infrastructure — Every lab needs TMO products.
- RSI 33 in entry zone — Oversold with wide moat.
- Bioproduction secular tailwind — mRNA, cell therapy, gene editing.
- Picks-and-shovels for pharma AI — AI drug discovery increases demand.
Bear Case
- Pharma R&D budget cuts — Largest segment cutting spending.
- Insider selling $323.3M — Among highest in coverage.
- China exposure ~15% — Geopolitical risk.
- Recovery stalling — RSI 38 → 33 reversal.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created. RSI 5.5 extreme. $504.82. Buy. |
| 2026-02-22 |
$510.93 (+1.2%). RSI 19.2. Buy. |
| 2026-02-26 |
$515.03. RSI 32.2. Near entry zone top. Buy. |
| 2026-03-03 |
$507.81 (-1.4%). RSI 31.2. Consolidation. Buy. |
| 2026-03-10 |
$509.97 (+0.4%). RSI 38.4. SMA gap nearly closed. Buy. |
| 2026-03-11 |
$495.61 (-2.8%). RSI 32.9 (computed). Recovery stalled. SMA gap widened. Buy maintained. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 38 → 33: recovery stalled |
Base-building taking longer than expected |
| SMA gap: -0.8% → -3.1% |
Price pulled away from convergence |
| Still in $490-$525 entry zone |
Buy thesis unchanged at these levels |
Open Questions
- What drove the -2.8% pullback? Sector rotation?
- When does TMO report next earnings?
- Are insider sales on scheduled plans?