Conviction: High
Status: Accumulate — RSI 50.1, price $210.18, above SMA, 30D +5.3%
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 50.1 — neutral, holding above SMA. Price $210.18, -1.2% today, -4.0% 7D, +5.3% 30D. SMA20 ~$208.92 — price +0.6% ABOVE SMA. Consolidating in neutral territory. |
| Moat |
Wide (scale, logistics, AWS, data, advertising) |
| Key insight |
AMZN pulled back slightly from $212.65 (03/11) to $210.18 (-1.2%). RSI holding at 50.1 — neutral consolidation. Price still above SMA (+0.6%). 30D +5.3% remains solid. AWS + advertising thesis intact. Clean accumulate zone. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
📈 Accumulate |
RSI 50, price above SMA, 30D positive, thesis intact |
| Entry Zone |
$195 - $215 |
Current $210.18 — IN ZONE |
| Stop-Loss |
$180 (-14%) |
Below recent support |
| Target |
$275 (+31%) |
Recovery toward recent highs |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| AMZN |
$210.18 |
-1.2% |
-4.0% |
+5.3% |
-7.1% |
— |
50 |
🟡 Neutral |
📈 Accumulate |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/11)
| Metric |
03/11 |
03/12 |
Change |
| Price |
$212.65 |
$210.18 |
-$2.47 (-1.2%) |
| RSI |
46.8 |
50.1 |
+3.3 (slight improvement) |
| SMA20 |
~$208.62 |
~$208.92 |
+$0.30 |
| vs SMA |
+1.9% |
+0.6% |
Tighter to SMA |
| 30D |
+4.2% |
+5.3% |
Improved |
Update from 03/11: Minor pullback from $212.65 to $210.18. RSI nudged up to 50.1 — textbook neutral consolidation. Price still above SMA. 30D improved to +5.3%. AWS + advertising flywheel thesis unchanged. Accumulate zone continues.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Amazon is the world's largest e-commerce marketplace and cloud provider (AWS), with dominant positions in digital advertising and logistics.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Cloud (AWS), 3rd-party marketplace, advertising, Prime subscriptions, direct retail |
| Who pays |
Consumers (retail, Prime), enterprises (AWS), advertisers (ad platform) |
| Revenue model |
Marketplace fees, AWS recurring, subscription (Prime), advertising CPM/CPC |
| How sticky |
Extremely high — AWS multi-year contracts, Prime ecosystem lock-in, marketplace flywheel |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| AWS |
~17% |
+19% YoY |
Cloud infrastructure, highest margin segment |
| North America Retail |
~46% |
+10% YoY |
Marketplace + direct sales |
| International |
~22% |
+9% YoY |
Growing but lower margin |
| Advertising |
~9% |
+19% YoY |
High-margin, fastest-growing |
| Other (Subscriptions) |
~6% |
+11% YoY |
Prime, digital content |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
More sellers = more buyers = more sellers (marketplace flywheel) |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
AWS: migration cost 12-24 months. Prime: annual subscription habit. |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Unmatched logistics network, AWS scale economies |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Consumer data, AWS ecosystem, logistics patents |
| Efficient scale |
🟢 |
Largest cloud + largest e-commerce = impossible to replicate economics |
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Widening (AI/ML embedded in AWS; advertising monetization accelerating)
Bull Case
- AWS re-acceleration — AI workloads driving cloud demand. 19% growth could push to 22%+.
- Advertising flywheel — $60B+ run rate, growing 19% with huge margin expansion runway.
- Full RSI recovery complete — RSI 17 → 56 → 50 consolidation. Textbook recovery arc.
- Margin expansion — Cost cuts + advertising growth driving EBIT margin from 5% to 10%+.
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| AWS accelerates to 22%+ growth |
$280 (+33%) |
| Advertising margin expands |
$300 (+43%) |
Bear Case
- AWS slowdown — Enterprise cloud budgets tighten in recession.
- Consumer spending recession — Retail revenue pressured.
- Regulatory breakup risk — FTC scrutiny of marketplace/logistics.
- Capex overhang — $100B+ capex plan could compress FCF.
Thesis Killers
- AWS growth drops below 12% for 2 consecutive quarters
- Amazon loses prime subscriber base
- FCF turns negative for 2+ quarters
Entry Strategy
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$209 |
SMA20 — established support |
| Support 2 |
$195 |
Recent capitulation low |
| Support 3 |
$185 |
Pre-2025 consolidation |
| Resistance 1 |
$220 |
In-window 52wk high |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry zone |
$195 - $215 (current levels) |
| Starter position |
2% of portfolio |
| Add on |
RSI drops below 40 = add opportunity |
| Full position at |
RSI > 50 + AWS growth confirmation |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created deep dive. RSI 17 extreme capitulation. -15% 30D. Action: Strong Buy. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price refresh. $210.11 (+5.7%). RSI improved 17 → 25. Recovery underway. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Price refresh. $206.73 (-1.6%). RSI 33.8. Maintaining Accumulate. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Price refresh. $208.73 (+1.0%). RSI ~30.8. 30D improved to -10.4%. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Full recovery. $213.49 (+2.3%). RSI 55.6. 30D +3.2%. Price +2.6% above SMA. |
| 2026-03-11 |
Slight pullback. $212.65 (-0.4%). RSI 46.8 (computed). Healthy consolidation. 30D +4.2%. Action: Accumulate. |
| 2026-03-12 |
Minor pullback. $210.18 (-1.2%). RSI 50.1. 30D +5.3%. Above SMA. Accumulate. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 17 → 56 → 50: recovery + consolidation |
Classic arc complete, now base-building |
| 30D: -15% → +5.3% over 4 weeks |
Full trend reversal confirmed and holding |
| Price holding above SMA through pullback |
Trend support validated |
Open Questions
- When does AWS report next acceleration data?
- How does AMZN's capex cycle affect FCF in 2026?
- Should entry zone be raised given full recovery?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| None logged yet |
RSI 17 was the ideal buy; RSI 50 consolidation is the hold zone |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.