2026-03-12 - Deep Dive - AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.)

Article published Mar 12, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.

AMZN Price Structure

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Conviction: High Status: Accumulate — RSI 50.1, price $210.18, above SMA, 30D +5.3%

Quick Snapshot

Signal	Reading
Overall	🟡 RSI 50.1 — neutral, holding above SMA. Price $210.18, -1.2% today, -4.0% 7D, +5.3% 30D. SMA20 ~$208.92 — price +0.6% ABOVE SMA. Consolidating in neutral territory.
Moat	Wide (scale, logistics, AWS, data, advertising)
Key insight	AMZN pulled back slightly from $212.65 (03/11) to $210.18 (-1.2%). RSI holding at 50.1 — neutral consolidation. Price still above SMA (+0.6%). 30D +5.3% remains solid. AWS + advertising thesis intact. Clean accumulate zone.

Action Matrix

Action	Level	Why
Current	📈 Accumulate	RSI 50, price above SMA, 30D positive, thesis intact
Entry Zone	$195 - $215	Current $210.18 — IN ZONE
Stop-Loss	$180 (-14%)	Below recent support
Target	$275 (+31%)	Recovery toward recent highs

Extended analysis

Price Data

Stock	Price	1D	7D	30D	3M	52wkHi	RSI	Status	Action
AMZN	$210.18	-1.2%	-4.0%	+5.3%	-7.1%	—	50	🟡 Neutral	📈 Accumulate

Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/11)

Metric	03/11	03/12	Change
Price	$212.65	$210.18	-$2.47 (-1.2%)
RSI	46.8	50.1	+3.3 (slight improvement)
SMA20	~$208.62	~$208.92	+$0.30
vs SMA	+1.9%	+0.6%	Tighter to SMA
30D	+4.2%	+5.3%	Improved

Update from 03/11: Minor pullback from $212.65 to $210.18. RSI nudged up to 50.1 — textbook neutral consolidation. Price still above SMA. 30D improved to +5.3%. AWS + advertising flywheel thesis unchanged. Accumulate zone continues.

Company Overview

One-Liner

Amazon is the world's largest e-commerce marketplace and cloud provider (AWS), with dominant positions in digital advertising and logistics.

Business Model

Question	Answer
What they sell	Cloud (AWS), 3rd-party marketplace, advertising, Prime subscriptions, direct retail
Who pays	Consumers (retail, Prime), enterprises (AWS), advertisers (ad platform)
Revenue model	Marketplace fees, AWS recurring, subscription (Prime), advertising CPM/CPC
How sticky	Extremely high — AWS multi-year contracts, Prime ecosystem lock-in, marketplace flywheel

Key Segments

Segment	Revenue %	Growth	Notes
AWS	~17%	+19% YoY	Cloud infrastructure, highest margin segment
North America Retail	~46%	+10% YoY	Marketplace + direct sales
International	~22%	+9% YoY	Growing but lower margin
Advertising	~9%	+19% YoY	High-margin, fastest-growing
Other (Subscriptions)	~6%	+11% YoY	Prime, digital content

Competitive Analysis

Competitive Moat

Moat Type	Present?	Evidence
Network effects	🟢	More sellers = more buyers = more sellers (marketplace flywheel)
Switching costs	🟢	AWS: migration cost 12-24 months. Prime: annual subscription habit.
Cost advantages	🟢	Unmatched logistics network, AWS scale economies
Intangible assets	🟢	Consumer data, AWS ecosystem, logistics patents
Efficient scale	🟢	Largest cloud + largest e-commerce = impossible to replicate economics

Moat Width: Wide Moat Trend: Widening (AI/ML embedded in AWS; advertising monetization accelerating)

Bull Case

AWS re-acceleration — AI workloads driving cloud demand. 19% growth could push to 22%+.
Advertising flywheel — $60B+ run rate, growing 19% with huge margin expansion runway.
Full RSI recovery complete — RSI 17 → 56 → 50 consolidation. Textbook recovery arc.
Margin expansion — Cost cuts + advertising growth driving EBIT margin from 5% to 10%+.

Upside Scenario

If This Happens	Stock Could
AWS accelerates to 22%+ growth	$280 (+33%)
Advertising margin expands	$300 (+43%)

Bear Case

AWS slowdown — Enterprise cloud budgets tighten in recession.
Consumer spending recession — Retail revenue pressured.
Regulatory breakup risk — FTC scrutiny of marketplace/logistics.
Capex overhang — $100B+ capex plan could compress FCF.

Thesis Killers

AWS growth drops below 12% for 2 consecutive quarters
Amazon loses prime subscriber base
FCF turns negative for 2+ quarters

Entry Strategy

Technical Levels

Level	Price	Notes
Support 1	$209	SMA20 — established support
Support 2	$195	Recent capitulation low
Support 3	$185	Pre-2025 consolidation
Resistance 1	$220	In-window 52wk high

Entry Approach

Strategy	Details
Entry zone	$195 - $215 (current levels)
Starter position	2% of portfolio
Add on	RSI drops below 40 = add opportunity
Full position at	RSI > 50 + AWS growth confirmation

Research Log

Date	Update
2026-02-16	Created deep dive. RSI 17 extreme capitulation. -15% 30D. Action: Strong Buy.
2026-02-22	Price refresh. $210.11 (+5.7%). RSI improved 17 → 25. Recovery underway.
2026-02-26	Price refresh. $206.73 (-1.6%). RSI 33.8. Maintaining Accumulate.
2026-03-03	Price refresh. $208.73 (+1.0%). RSI ~30.8. 30D improved to -10.4%.
2026-03-10	Full recovery. $213.49 (+2.3%). RSI 55.6. 30D +3.2%. Price +2.6% above SMA.
2026-03-11	Slight pullback. $212.65 (-0.4%). RSI 46.8 (computed). Healthy consolidation. 30D +4.2%. Action: Accumulate.
2026-03-12	Minor pullback. $210.18 (-1.2%). RSI 50.1. 30D +5.3%. Above SMA. Accumulate.

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery	Implication
RSI 17 → 56 → 50: recovery + consolidation	Classic arc complete, now base-building
30D: -15% → +5.3% over 4 weeks	Full trend reversal confirmed and holding
Price holding above SMA through pullback	Trend support validated

Open Questions

When does AWS report next acceleration data?
How does AMZN's capex cycle affect FCF in 2026?
Should entry zone be raised given full recovery?

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake	Lesson
None logged yet	RSI 17 was the ideal buy; RSI 50 consolidation is the hold zone

Sources

Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.