Deep Dive Ticker Tape
Article published Mar 12, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
INTU Price Structure
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Conviction: High Status: Hold — RSI 65.5, price $438.47, extended but tax season thesis playing out
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 RSI 65.5 — near overbought. Price $438.47, -0.4% today, -6.1% 7D, +10.2% 30D. SMA20 ~$413.91 — price +6.0% ABOVE SMA. Tax season thesis intact. |
| Moat | Wide (TurboTax monopoly, QuickBooks SMB dominance) |
| Key insight | INTU bounced from $440.65 to $438.47 — essentially flat. RSI rose from 47.9 to 65.5 — a notable jump suggesting buying pressure. 30D +10.2% confirms tax season catalyst. At RSI 65 and +6% above SMA, this is not a good add point. Hold existing. |
Action Matrix
| Action | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Current | 🔒 Hold | RSI 65.5 near overbought. Don't add at elevated levels. |
| Add Zone | $415 - $430 | Wait for pullback to SMA range |
| Stop-Loss | $395 (-10%) | Below SMA and key support |
| Target | $520 (+19%) | Recovery toward full levels |
Extended analysis
Price Data
| Stock | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | $438.47 | -0.4% | -6.1% | +10.2% | -34.5% | 65 | 🟠 Near Overbought | 🔒 Hold |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/11)
| Metric | 03/11 | 03/12 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $440.65 | $438.47 | -$2.18 (-0.5%) |
| RSI | 47.9 | 65.5 | +17.6 (major jump — day's buying pressure) |
| SMA20 | ~$411.98 | ~$413.91 | +$1.93 |
| vs SMA | +7.0% | +6.0% | Tighter to SMA |
Update from 03/11: Price essentially flat but RSI jumped sharply from 47.9 to 65.5 — unusual divergence suggesting strong buying on the day. Tax season thesis intact. At RSI 65 near overbought, don't add. Hold.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Intuit is the dominant tax software (TurboTax) and SMB accounting (QuickBooks) provider with near-monopoly positions.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type | Present? | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Switching costs | 🟢 | Multi-year tax history; QuickBooks data migration cost |
| Intangible assets | 🟢 | TurboTax brand (#1 consumer awareness) |
| Cost advantages | 🟢 | Scale across 40M+ annual TurboTax filers |
Moat Width: Wide
Bull Case
- Tax season catalyst playing out — +10.2% 30D.
- QuickBooks AI integration — GenAI bookkeeping assistant.
- Most dramatic recovery in coverage — RSI 10.6 → 65.
Bear Case
- IRS Direct File expansion — TurboTax TAM risk.
- AI disruption — New AI-native tax tools.
- 3M -34.5% — Still significant distance from highs.
- RSI 65.5 — Near overbought; pullback risk elevated.
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Created. RSI 10.6 extreme. $399.40. Action: Strong Buy. |
| 2026-02-22 | $380.55 (-4.7%). RSI 17.6. Maintaining Strong Buy. |
| 2026-02-26 | $389.33 (+2.3%). RSI 34.6. Accumulate. |
| 2026-03-03 | $433.35 (+11.3%). RSI ~49.6. Hold. |
| 2026-03-10 | $473.67 (+9.3%). RSI 62.8. Near 52wk high. Extended. Hold; don't chase. |
| 2026-03-11 | $440.65 (-7.0%). RSI 47.9 (computed). Healthy pullback from extended. Hold. |
| 2026-03-12 | $438.47 (-0.5%). RSI 65.5. Near overbought. Don't add. Hold. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| RSI 10.6 → 65.5 in under a month | Tax season + recovery arc produced one of the biggest RSI recoveries in coverage |
| RSI jumped 17 pts on flat price | Day's buying pressure was strong — institutional accumulation signal |
| 30D +10.2% with -34.5% 3M gap | Recovery underway but long road back to highs |
Open Questions
- When does INTU report Q2 2026 (tax season results)?
- Is TurboTax market share holding against IRS Direct File?
- Will RSI stay elevated through tax season or pull back?