Conviction: Medium
Status: Watch — RSI 49.6, price $165.12, below SMA, continued selling pressure
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 49.6 — neutral. Price $165.12, -3.8% today, -7.5% 7D, -2.2% 30D. SMA20 ~$170.51 — price -3.2% below SMA. Recovery stalling. |
| Moat |
Wide (1B+ patient records, 90% of top pharma) |
| Key insight |
IQV dropped from $170.93 (03/11) to $165.12 (-3.4%). RSI stabilized at 49.6 despite price falling — a slight positive divergence. But the continued selling (-7.5% 7D) is concerning. Price remains below SMA. The RSI 17 → 39 recovery from last week has stalled and partially reversed. Wide moat thesis intact but thesis needs price stabilization. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔍 Watch |
Selling pressure continues. Wait for stabilization above $165. |
| Entry Zone |
$155 - $175 |
Current $165.12 — IN ZONE |
| Stop-Loss |
$134 (-19%) |
Below April 2025 52-week low |
| Target |
$210 (+27%) |
Return to pre-selloff mean |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| IQV |
$165.12 |
-3.8% |
-7.5% |
-2.2% |
-25.7% |
50 |
🟡 Neutral |
🔍 Watch |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/11)
| Metric |
03/11 |
03/12 |
Change |
| Price |
$170.93 |
$165.12 |
-$5.81 (-3.4%) |
| RSI |
39.4 |
49.6 |
+10.2 (divergence — RSI up, price down) |
| SMA20 |
~$171.65 |
~$170.51 |
-$1.14 |
| vs SMA |
-0.4% |
-3.2% |
Further below SMA |
Update from 03/11: Continued selling. Price dropped -3.4% while RSI paradoxically rose. RSI/price divergence worth watching — could signal sellers exhausted. But with -7.5% 7D and still below SMA, not yet time to commit. Wait for $165 to hold for multiple days.
Company Overview
One-Liner
IQVIA provides data analytics, technology solutions, and contract research services to the life sciences industry.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
More data from trials = better analytics |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Multi-year contracts, deeply embedded platforms |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Scale across 100+ countries |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Proprietary datasets covering 1B+ patient records |
Moat Width: Wide
Bull Case
- Wide moat confirmed — 1B+ patient records, 90% of top pharma.
- RSI price divergence — RSI stabilizing while price falls may signal exhaustion.
- P/E ~13x forward vs 5Y avg ~25x — Near valuation floor.
- IN entry zone — $155-175.
Bear Case
- -3.8% today, -7.5% 7D — Continued aggressive selling.
- 3M -25.7% — Significant distance from highs.
- R&DS cancellation trend — CRO pipeline concerns.
- $13B debt — Refinancing cost risk.
- SMA declining — Trend not yet turned.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-15 |
Created. RSI 14 extreme. $162.31. Wide moat, fair value $210-$230. |
| 2026-02-22 |
$165.62. RSI improved to 25.5 — stabilization. |
| 2026-02-26 |
$162.31. RSI slipped to 17.4 (failed recovery). |
| 2026-03-10 |
OHLC still stale. |
| 2026-03-11 |
FRESH DATA. $170.93. RSI 39.4. Major recovery from 17.4. At SMA. Watch. |
| 2026-03-12 |
Selling continues. $165.12 (-3.4%). RSI 49.6. RSI/price divergence. Still in zone. Watch. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI rising while price falls |
Positive divergence — could signal selling exhaustion |
| Recovery from RSI 17 stalling |
Bottom not yet confirmed despite RSI improvement |
| 3M -25.7% |
Deep discount to any fair value estimate |
Open Questions
- Is R&DS cancellation trend worsening?
- What is the refinancing schedule for $13B debt?
- Will $165 hold as support?