Conviction: Medium
Status: Accumulate — RSI 22.3, price $87.82, extreme oversold, IN entry zone
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟢 RSI 22.3 (computed) — extreme oversold. Price $87.82, -1.3% today, -5.6% 7D, -12.9% 30D. SMA20 ~$95.44 — price -8.0% below SMA. Deep in entry zone. |
| Moat |
Moderate-Wide — scale and switching costs |
| Key insight |
MDT declined further from $89.89 (03/11) to $87.82 (-2.3%). RSI worsened from 26.7 to 22.3 — now extreme oversold. Price is deep in the $88-94 entry zone flagged earlier, actually near the bottom of it. The PFA franchise (+80% cardiac ablation growth) and MiniMed spinoff catalysts intact. Dividend aristocrat (~3.4% yield). Accumulate in stages. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
📈 Accumulate |
RSI 22.3 extreme oversold, deep in entry zone, dividend aristocrat. |
| Entry Zone |
$86 - $94 |
Current $87.82 — NEAR BOTTOM OF ZONE |
| Stop-Loss |
$79 (-10%) |
Below 52-week low ($79.55) |
| Target 1 |
$108 (+23%) |
Analyst consensus zone |
| Target 2 |
$117 (+33%) |
All-time high recovery |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| MDT |
$87.82 |
-1.3% |
-5.6% |
-12.9% |
-11.4% |
22↓ |
🟢 Extreme Oversold |
📈 Accumulate |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/11)
| Metric |
03/11 |
03/12 |
Change |
| Price |
$89.89 |
$87.82 |
-$2.07 (-2.3%) |
| RSI |
26.7 |
22.3 |
-4.4 (worsened) |
| SMA20 |
~$96.72 |
~$95.44 |
-$1.28 |
| vs SMA |
-7.1% |
-8.0% |
Further below SMA |
Update from 03/11: Selling continues but at extreme oversold levels. RSI now 22.3 — deep in capitulation territory. Price at $87.82 is near the bottom of the entry zone. PFA franchise, MiniMed spinoff, and dividend aristocrat thesis unchanged. Accumulate in stages with $79 hard stop.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Medtronic is the world's largest standalone medical device company — $34B/year spanning cardiovascular, neuroscience, surgical, and diabetes.
Key Segments (Q3 FY2026)
| Segment |
Q3 Revenue |
Q3 Organic Growth |
Key Products |
| Cardiovascular |
$3.457B |
+10.6% |
PFA/Affera system, TAVR |
| Neuroscience |
$2.558B |
+2.5% |
Spinal fusion, neuro-stim |
| Medical Surgical |
$2.173B |
+2.7% |
Hugo surgical robot |
| Diabetes |
$796M |
+8.3% |
MiniMed (spinning off mid-2026) |
Bull Case
- PFA is a multi-year growth driver — Cardiac Ablation +80% global, +137% US.
- MiniMed spinoff unlocks value — Removes GLP-1 narrative, 100+ bps margin uplift.
- IN entry zone — $87.82 near bottom of $86-94 range.
- Dividend aristocrat — 48 years of increases, ~3.4% yield.
- Cheapest large-cap medtech — P/E ~26x forward vs BSX 57x, SYK 35x.
- RSI 22.3 — Extreme oversold.
Bear Case
- 10-year underperformance — Still below Sept 2021 ATH.
- Hugo is years from revenue — ISRG has 10,763+ systems.
- -5.6% 7D, -12.9% 30D — Active sustained selling pressure.
- Spine is structural drag — Mature, price-deflationary market.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-22 |
Created. Price ~$97.58. RSI ~58. Q3 strongest growth in 10 quarters. |
| 2026-02-26 |
$98.61. RSI 36.3. Getting closer to entry zone. |
| 2026-03-11 |
FRESH DATA. $89.89 (-8.8% from stale). RSI 26.7. NOW IN entry zone. Accumulate. |
| 2026-03-12 |
Continued decline. $87.82 (-2.3%). RSI 22.3 extreme oversold. Near bottom of zone. Accumulate. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 22.3 — extreme oversold on world's largest medtech |
Rare setup: quality company at capitulation levels |
| -12.9% 30D for a dividend aristocrat |
Macro/sector selloff, not company-specific deterioration |
| Near bottom of $86-94 entry zone |
Optimal entry area — accumulate with clear $79 stop |
Open Questions
- What drove the continued -5.6% 7D? (Q4 guidance? Sector rotation? Tariff impact on medical devices?)
- Is PFA growth accelerating in Q4?
- What multiple will MiniMed trade at post-spinoff?
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.