Conviction: High
Status: Hold — RSI 72.5, price $212.78, above 52wk high, OVERBOUGHT
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🔴 RSI 72.5 — overbought. Price $212.78, -0.1% today, +10.6% 7D, +14.9% 30D. SMA20 ~$187.33 — price +13.6% ABOVE SMA. Broken above 52wk high. Extended. |
| Moat |
Narrow (widening — network effects, zero-trust) |
| Key insight |
NET essentially flat today ($212.78 vs $212.44 03/11) but RSI crossed into overbought territory at 72.5. Price is +13.6% above SMA and has broken above the 52wk high. This is the most extended stock in the coverage universe. Strong thesis — AI traffic layer + zero-trust — but at RSI 72 do NOT add. Hold core, stop at $170. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔒 Hold |
RSI 72.5 overbought. Hold core position. Do NOT add or chase. |
| Entry Zone |
$190 - $205 |
Current price WELL ABOVE zone |
| Stop-Loss |
$170 (-20%) |
Comfortable buffer |
| Target |
$260 (+22%) |
Continued breakout |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| NET |
$212.78 |
-0.1% |
+10.6% |
+14.9% |
+5.1% |
72 |
🔴 Overbought |
🔒 Hold |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/11)
| Metric |
03/11 |
03/12 |
Change |
| Price |
$212.44 |
$212.78 |
+$0.34 (+0.2%) |
| RSI |
66.3 |
72.5 |
+6.2 (crossed overbought) |
| SMA20 |
~$186.14 |
~$187.33 |
+$1.19 |
| vs SMA |
+14.1% |
+13.6% |
Tightly extended |
Update from 03/11: Price flat but RSI crossed into overbought (72.5). This is the tipping point — NET is now overbought and +13.6% above SMA. The 52wk high breakout is confirmed. Hold but do NOT add. Consider raising stop from $170 to $185 to lock in gains.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Cloudflare is a cloud network platform providing CDN, DDoS protection, zero-trust security, and serverless computing at the network edge.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
300+ POPs globally |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Zero Trust embedded in security stack |
Moat Width: Narrow (widening)
Bull Case
- 52wk high breakout confirmed — New highs attract momentum.
- AI traffic layer — Every AI agent call routes through the internet.
- Zero Trust secular tailwind.
- Stop buffer at -20% — Comfortable risk management.
Bear Case
- RSI 72.5 = overbought — Pullback risk elevated.
- +13.6% above SMA — Most extended stock in coverage.
- Competition from Zscaler / Palo Alto.
- +14.9% 30D priced in a lot of good news.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created. RSI 52.9. $195.85. Hold. |
| 2026-02-22 |
$177.14 (-9.6%). RSI 49.8. Hold with caution. |
| 2026-02-26 |
$173.33. RSI 55.6. Stop danger. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Recovery. $178.83. 30D +7.2%. Hold. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Surge. $201.48 (+12.7%). RSI 61.1. Near 52wk high. Hold. |
| 2026-03-11 |
BREAKOUT. $212.44 (+5.4%). RSI 66.3. Broke 52wk high. Hold; don't add. |
| 2026-03-12 |
Flat. $212.78 (+0.2%). RSI 72.5 — OVERBOUGHT. Hold; raise stop to $185. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI crossed 70 — officially overbought |
Pullback risk elevated; do not add |
| $173 → $213 in 2 weeks (+23%) |
Strongest move in NET history — momentum intact but extended |
| +13.6% above SMA |
Most extended stock in coverage |
Open Questions
- What drove the breakout? Contract news? Analyst upgrade?
- Should stop be raised from $170 to $185 to lock in gains?
- How high can NET run before RSI 75+ pullback trigger?