Deep Dive Ticker Tape
Article published Mar 12, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
NVDA Price Structure
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Conviction: High Status: Hold/Add — RSI 44.4, price $184.12, near SMA, post-GTC
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 RSI 44.4 — neutral. Price $184.12, -1.0% today, +0.4% 7D, -1.5% 30D. SMA20 ~$185.33 — price -0.7% below SMA. Right at SMA. |
| Moat | Wide |
| Key insight | NVDA pulled back slightly from $185.93 (03/11) to $184.12 (-1.0%). RSI eased from 51.4 to 44.4. Price slipped just below SMA at -0.7%. Post-GTC digestion continues. At SMA with RSI 44, still in the add zone. $97B FCF, 75% gross margins, Blackwell ramp thesis intact. |
Action Matrix
| Action | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Current | 📈 Add | RSI 44 at SMA = ideal. |
| Add Zone | $178 - $190 | Current $184.12 — IN ADD ZONE |
| Stop-Loss | $155 (-16%) | Below major support |
| Target | $250 (+36%) | FY2027 revenue scenario |
Extended analysis
Price Data
| Stock | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $184.12 | -1.0% | +0.4% | -1.5% | +5.2% | 44 | 🟡 Neutral | 📈 Add |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/11)
| Metric | 03/11 | 03/12 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $185.93 | $184.12 | -$1.81 (-1.0%) |
| RSI | 51.4 | 44.4 | -7.0 (slight cooling) |
| SMA20 | ~$185.63 | ~$185.33 | -$0.30 |
| vs SMA | +0.2% | -0.7% | Just dipped below SMA |
Update from 03/11: NVDA slipped just below SMA (-0.7%). RSI eased to 44.4. Post-GTC digestion. At SMA with neutral RSI, this is the classic add zone. Core thesis unchanged: $97B FCF, 75% gross margins, Blackwell ramp, Rubin upcoming.
Company Overview
One-Liner
NVIDIA designs GPUs and data center-scale AI infrastructure that powers the majority of the world's AI training and inference workloads.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type | Present? | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Network effects | 🟢 | 7.5M+ CUDA developers |
| Switching costs | 🟢 | Entire AI stack optimized for CUDA |
| Cost advantages | 🟢 | Best performance per watt |
| Intangible assets | 🟢 | 10,000+ patents, 18 years of CUDA |
Moat Width: Wide
Bull Case
- RSI 44 just below SMA = optimal add setup.
- $97B FCF, 75% gross margins — Self-funding growth machine.
- Blackwell ramp + Rubin on deck — 10x+ inference improvement.
- 3M +5.2% — Positive intermediate trend.
Bear Case
- Custom ASIC competition — Google TPUs, Amazon Trainium.
- Export controls — China market foreclosed.
- Heavy insider selling — -$3.0B net.
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | Created post-Q4. $185.57, RSI 63.3. Hold. |
| 2026-03-03 | Post-earnings digestion. $180.05. RSI ~52.9. In add zone. |
| 2026-03-10 | Stabilizing. $182.65. RSI 45.9. In add zone. |
| 2026-03-11 | At SMA. $185.93 (+1.8%). RSI 51.4. Crossed above SMA. GTC imminent. Add. |
| 2026-03-12 | Just below SMA. $184.12 (-1.0%). RSI 44.4. Post-GTC digestion. Add. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Price oscillating around SMA | Classic consolidation — coiled spring |
| RSI 51 → 44: slight cooling | No reversal signal — still in healthy add zone |
| 3M +5.2% | Positive trend on intermediate timeframe |
Open Questions
- What was announced at GTC Conference?
- How does USG export control affect product scope?
- At what point does custom ASIC reach tipping point?
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.