Conviction: Medium-High
Status: Watch — RSI 71.5, price $154.74, approaching overbought, +19.8% 30D
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟠 RSI 71.5 — near overbought. Price $154.74, +2.1% today, +1.4% 7D, +19.8% 30D. SMA20 ~$141.76 — price +9.2% ABOVE SMA. Pushing toward 52wk highs. |
| Moat |
Narrow (government: Wide; commercial: Narrow via AIP) |
| Key insight |
PLTR reversed its pullback — from $151.61 (03/11) to $154.74 (+2.1%). RSI jumped from 54.3 to 71.5 — approaching overbought. The +19.8% 30D is the strongest 30D return among the core tech names. AIP commercial growth at +121% YoY remains the driver. At RSI 71.5 and +9.2% above SMA, hold but do NOT add. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔒 Hold |
RSI 71.5 approaching overbought. Do NOT add. |
| Add Zone |
$135 - $145 |
Wait for deeper pullback |
| Stop-Loss |
$125 (-19%) |
Below consolidation floor |
| Target |
$200 (+29%) |
AIP commercial acceleration |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| PLTR |
$154.74 |
+2.1% |
+1.4% |
+19.8% |
-15.7% |
71 |
🟠 Near Overbought |
🔒 Hold |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/11)
| Metric |
03/11 |
03/12 |
Change |
| Price |
$151.61 |
$154.74 |
+$3.13 (+2.1%) |
| RSI |
54.3 |
71.5 |
+17.2 (major jump toward overbought) |
| SMA20 |
~$140.81 |
~$141.76 |
+$0.95 |
| vs SMA |
+7.7% |
+9.2% |
More extended |
Update from 03/11: PLTR bounced sharply. RSI jumped from 54.3 to 71.5 in one day — now approaching overbought. Price at $154.74 near 52wk highs. +19.8% 30D is the strongest core-tech 30D in coverage. AIP thesis intact but RSI 71 = don't add. Hold and watch for either RSI > 75 (reduce exposure) or pullback to $140s (add).
Bull Case
- US Commercial AIP +121% YoY.
- Government AI tailwind — TITAN, DoD.
- 30D +19.8% — Strongest momentum in core tech.
Bear Case
- Karp $4.7B selling — Persistent supply pressure.
- 40x+ revenue valuation — Any miss = large selloff.
- 121% growth unsustainable — Deceleration expected.
- RSI 71.5 — Near overbought; pullback risk.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created. RSI 29.7. $131.41. Hold. |
| 2026-02-22 |
$135.24 (+2.9%). RSI 42.2. Recovery. |
| 2026-02-26 |
$134.49. RSI 54.9. Approaching SMA. |
| 2026-03-03 |
$147.22 (+9.5%). AT 52wk high. Hold. |
| 2026-03-10 |
$156.43. RSI 66.3. Near overbought. Hold. |
| 2026-03-11 |
$151.61 (-3.1%). RSI 54.3. Healthy pullback. Hold. |
| 2026-03-12 |
$154.74 (+2.1%). RSI 71.5. Near overbought. Hold; do not add. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI oscillating 54 → 71 |
Volatile RSI swings — PLTR is a high-beta name |
| +19.8% 30D — best in core tech |
Momentum remains strong |
| Near overbought two days in a row |
Pullback risk elevated; wait for RSI < 60 to add |
Open Questions
- Is Karp's selling schedule known?
- What are DOGE impacts on government contracts?