Conviction: Low-Medium
Status: Watch — RSI 41.0, price $17.79, below SMA, continued weakness
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 41.0 — approaching neutral from oversold. Price $17.79, -4.0% today, -7.6% 7D, -7.8% 30D. SMA20 ~$18.83 — price -5.5% below SMA. |
| Moat |
Narrow (digital banking network, bank charter) |
| Key insight |
SOFI declined further from $18.29 (03/11) to $17.79 (-2.7%). RSI essentially flat at 41.0. Price continues falling below SMA. 3M -34.8% is among the worst in coverage. Rate sensitivity remains the key risk. No buy signal yet — wait for stabilization. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔍 Watch |
RSI 41, below SMA, rate-sensitive. Wait for stabilization. |
| Entry Zone |
$15 - $19 |
Current $17.79 — IN ZONE (if thesis validates) |
| Stop-Loss |
$13 (-27%) |
Below major support |
| Target |
$26 (+46%) |
Recovery toward SMA range |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| SOFI |
$17.79 |
-4.0% |
-7.6% |
-7.8% |
-34.8% |
41 |
🟡 Approaching Neutral |
🔍 Watch |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/11)
| Metric |
03/11 |
03/12 |
Change |
| Price |
$18.29 |
$17.79 |
-$0.50 (-2.7%) |
| RSI |
35.8 |
41.0 |
+5.2 (slight improvement) |
| SMA20 |
~$19.10 |
~$18.83 |
-$0.27 |
| vs SMA |
-4.2% |
-5.5% |
Further below SMA |
Update from 03/11: Continued decline to $17.79. RSI nudged up to 41 despite lower price — slight positive divergence. 3M -34.8% is among the worst in coverage. The -7.6% 7D suggests continued institutional selling. Rate sensitivity and fintech headwinds are real. Watch but don't rush.
Company Overview
One-Liner
SoFi Technologies is a digital financial services company offering lending, investing, and banking to high-income professionals.
Bull Case
- Bank charter — Cheaper funding for loans.
- RSI recovering from 17 — May be forming a base.
- HENRY segment — High-income, low-risk customers.
Bear Case
- -34.8% 3M — Severe selling pressure.
- Rate sensitivity — Higher rates suppress refinancing.
- History of -50% drawdowns — Volatile track record.
- Credit quality risk — Recession increases defaults.
- -4.0% today — Continued aggressive selling.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-03-03 |
NEW — RSI 16.8 (stale, 02/02). -24.6% 30D. Watch. |
| 2026-03-11 |
FRESH DATA. $18.29. RSI 35.8. Price -17.2% from stale reading. Watch. |
| 2026-03-12 |
Continued decline. $17.79 (-2.7%). RSI 41.0. -34.8% 3M. Watch. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI rising slightly while price falls |
Small positive divergence — may be stabilizing |
| 3M -34.8% |
Among worst performers in coverage |
| -7.6% 7D |
Active institutional selling continues |
Open Questions
- What is driving the continued selloff?
- What is student loan refinancing volume trend?
- Is the bank charter generating meaningful NIM improvement?