Deep Dive Ticker Tape
Article published Mar 12, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
TEAM Price Structure
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Conviction: Medium Status: Watch — RSI 49.3, price $75.32, approaching SMA from below, -53.5% 3M
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 RSI 49.3 — neutral, recovering. Price $75.32, -0.2% today, -8.7% 7D, -12.9% 30D. SMA20 ~$78.33 — price -3.8% below SMA. |
| Moat | Wide (Jira/Confluence switching costs, product-led growth) |
| Key insight | TEAM recovered from $78.01 to $75.32 — actually pulled back -3.4% but RSI improved from 37.1 to 49.3, indicating internal buying. The -8.7% 7D is concerning. At P/S 3.8x with 83% gross margins and $3.8B RPO (+44% YoY), TEAM is historically cheap for a 20%+ grower. But insiders are not buying. Watch $68-73 for higher-conviction entry. |
Action Matrix
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Action | 🔍 Watch (approaching entry zone) |
| RSI | 49.3 (neutral, recovering) |
| vs SMA20 | -3.8% below ($78.33) |
| 30D Change | -12.9% |
| 3M Change | -53.5% |
| Entry Zone | $68-73 (retest of Feb low) |
| Stop-Loss | $60 (-13% from $68 entry) |
| Target | $105-110 (+53% from $73) |
| Conviction | 🟡 Medium |
Extended analysis
Price Data
| Stock | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM | $75.32 | -0.2% | -8.7% | -12.9% | -53.5% | 49 | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/11)
| Metric | 03/11 | 03/12 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $78.01 | $75.32 | -$2.69 (-3.4%) |
| RSI | 37.1 | 49.3 | +12.2 (significant improvement) |
| SMA20 | $79.78 | $78.33 | -$1.45 |
| vs SMA | -2.2% | -3.8% | Slightly further below SMA |
Update from 03/11: Price dropped -3.4% but RSI jumped from 37.1 to 49.3 — strong positive divergence. This suggests buying pressure under the surface even as price pulls back. 3M -53.5% is the second-worst 3M in coverage (after FUBO). P/S 3.8x vs 12x 5Y avg. Insiders not buying. Watch $68-73.
Key Fundamentals
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +20.1% YoY (Q2 FY2026) |
| Gross Margin | 82.9% |
| Cloud Revenue | $1.0B+/quarter (+26% YoY) |
| RPO | $3.8B (+44% YoY) |
| Earnings Beat | 100% (67% above est) |
| P/S | 3.8x (5Y avg ~12x) |
Bull Case
- Widest moat in SaaS — Jira/Confluence switching costs are a fortress.
- RPO +44% YoY — Revenue acceleration baked in for 2-3 quarters.
- Rovo AI monetization — 5M MAUs, $20/user/month pricing.
- P/S at historical trough — 3.8x vs 12x 5Y average.
- RSI positive divergence — Buying pressure building under the surface.
Bear Case
- Insiders sold during capitulation — Zero buying at multi-year lows.
- AI disruption — Linear, GitHub Copilot gaining share.
- Data Center revenue cliff — 30% of revenue in structural decline.
- GAAP still unprofitable — $42.6M loss in Q2.
- 3M -53.5% — Severe capital destruction.
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Created. $79.31, RSI 46. Watch for $68-73 retest with insider buying. |
| 2026-03-11 | $78.01 (-1.6%). RSI 37.1 (computed). Approaching oversold. -4.9% today. Watch. |
| 2026-03-12 | $75.32 (-3.4%). RSI 49.3. Positive RSI divergence. Still heading toward $68-73 zone. Watch. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| RSI 37 → 49 while price -3.4% | Strong positive divergence — accumulation under the surface? |
| 3M -53.5% | Second-worst in coverage after FUBO — extreme selling |
| 3.8x P/S vs 12x 5Y avg | Historical valuation trough — but insiders not buying |
Open Questions
- Why are insiders selling at multi-year lows?
- How quickly is Rovo AI consumption revenue growing?
- Will the $68 Feb low hold on retest?