Conviction: Medium-High
Status: Buy — RSI 32.5, price $476.70, in entry zone, continued base-building
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 32.5 (computed) — approaching oversold. Price $476.70, -3.8% today, -8.1% 7D, -6.5% 30D. SMA20 ~$508.77 — price -6.3% below SMA. SMA gap widening. |
| Moat |
Wide (lab equipment, reagents, instruments monopoly) |
| Key insight |
TMO declined sharply from $495.61 (03/11) to $476.70 (-3.8%). RSI essentially flat at 32.5 vs 32.9. The base-building has deteriorated into a downtrend. Price now -6.3% below SMA. Still in entry zone ($470-$520) but approaching lower end. Wide moat thesis intact. Buy maintained but acknowledging continued weakness. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
✅ Buy (staged) |
RSI 32.5 in entry zone, wide moat. Buy in stages. |
| Entry Zone |
$465 - $510 |
Current $476.70 — IN ZONE (lower end) |
| Stop-Loss |
$440 (-8%) |
Below multi-year support |
| Target |
$650 (+36%) |
Recovery toward prior levels |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| TMO |
$476.70 |
-3.8% |
-8.1% |
-6.5% |
-16.6% |
33 |
🟡 Approaching Oversold |
✅ Buy |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/11)
| Metric |
03/11 |
03/12 |
Change |
| Price |
$495.61 |
$476.70 |
-$18.91 (-3.8%) |
| RSI |
32.9 |
32.5 |
-0.4 (flat) |
| SMA20 |
~$511.29 |
~$508.77 |
-$2.52 (SMA declining) |
| vs SMA |
-3.1% |
-6.3% |
SMA gap doubled |
Update from 03/11: Sharp decline of -3.8% on top of recent weakness. RSI flat at 32.5 while price fell — another positive divergence. SMA gap doubled from -3.1% to -6.3%. Buy thesis intact but entry zone has shifted lower. Accumulate in stages with $440 stop.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Thermo Fisher Scientific is the world's largest life sciences company, providing instruments, reagents, and services to every lab globally.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Scientific protocols lock in specific instruments/reagents |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Brand trust in research |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
$45B+ revenue = unmatched scale |
| Efficient scale |
🟢 |
Only company covering full lab workflow |
Moat Width: Wide
Bull Case
- Essential infrastructure — Every lab needs TMO products.
- RSI 32.5 in entry zone — Approaching oversold on wide moat.
- Bioproduction secular tailwind — mRNA, cell therapy, gene editing.
- Picks-and-shovels for pharma AI — AI drug discovery increases demand.
- RSI flat while price falls — Positive divergence.
Bear Case
- Pharma R&D budget cuts — Largest segment cutting spending.
- Insider selling $323.3M — Among highest in coverage.
- China exposure ~15% — Geopolitical risk.
- SMA gap doubling — Momentum clearly downward.
- -8.1% 7D — Active selling pressure.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created. RSI 5.5 extreme. $504.82. Buy. |
| 2026-02-22 |
$510.93 (+1.2%). RSI 19.2. Buy. |
| 2026-02-26 |
$515.03. RSI 32.2. Near entry zone top. Buy. |
| 2026-03-03 |
$507.81 (-1.4%). RSI 31.2. Consolidation. Buy. |
| 2026-03-10 |
$509.97 (+0.4%). RSI 38.4. SMA gap nearly closed. Buy. |
| 2026-03-11 |
$495.61 (-2.8%). RSI 32.9. Recovery stalled. SMA gap widened. Buy maintained. |
| 2026-03-12 |
$476.70 (-3.8%). RSI 32.5. Sharp decline. SMA gap doubled. Buy in stages. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI flat while price -3.8% |
Positive divergence — sellers may be exhausting |
| SMA gap: -3.1% → -6.3% in one day |
Sharp deterioration — buy in stages, not all at once |
| Still in entry zone (lower end) |
Buy thesis intact but reduce position size given momentum |
Open Questions
- What drove the -3.8% decline? Macro sector rotation?
- Is pharma R&D spending showing signs of recovery?
- Are insider sales on scheduled plans?