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Status: ACTIVE — Oil pullback doesn't reduce the tail risk. Helium/LNG vulnerability unchanged.

The scenario thesis is independent of oil price. USO pulling back from $138 to $128 doesn't change the Gulf infrastructure vulnerability one bit. Ras Laffan (Qatar's LNG/helium complex) is still the most asymmetric risk in global markets. The helium-semiconductor nexus — ~30% of global helium, ~2 weeks of fab buffer — remains the non-obvious risk that nobody is pricing.

What's new this week: Oil's pullback may actually INCREASE the probability of Iranian provocation. If the US interprets the pullback as "pressure is working" and doubles down on sanctions/strikes, Iran's incentive to retaliate against Gulf infrastructure grows. The scenario is counter-cyclical — it becomes MORE likely when oil prices dip because that's when the US feels most confident pushing harder.

Key tickers to watch: LNG (Cheniere), LIN (Linde), APD (Air Products), TRGP (Targa Resources), TSM (TSMC — helium dependent), EWT (Taiwan), EWY (South Korea).

No price updates needed — this is a scenario/contingency perspective, not a momentum trade. Refresh the playbook when trigger conditions change.

Watch For

• US strikes on Iranian power plants
• Iranian retaliation on Gulf infrastructure
• QatarGas force majeure
• Helium spot price spikes >20%
• TSMC/Samsung...