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• Source: https://x.com/LiebermanAustin/status/1992924248315187540
• Author: Austin Lieberman (@LiebermanAustin)
• Date captured: 2026-04-11
• integrated_into: .brief/physical-ai-infrastructure-thesis.md (SaaS vs infra)

TL;DR

Snowflake revenue grew from $336M to $1.5B since 2020 (4.5x). Stock is STILL down 30%+ from 2020 highs. P/S compressed from 220x to 20x. Revenue growing 28%+ YoY but investors who bought at peak hype are still underwater. This is what multiple compression looks like — the business executed perfectly and the stock still lost money.

Key Takeaways

• Revenue 4.5x in 5 years ($336M → $1.5B) but stock still -30% from 2020 highs
• P/S ratio collapsed from 220x to 20x — that's a 91% multiple compression
• Still growing 28%+ YoY but the market is re-rating ALL SaaS multiples lower
• This is the exact risk we face buying SNOW at RSI 21 — even if the business executes, multiple compression can overpower revenue growth
• The counter-argument: at P/S 20x with 28% growth, the multiple compression may be DONE. The 2020 buyers paid 220x. We're paying 20x.

Discussion

2026-04-11 — First capture

This is the perfect bear case for our SNOW position. We bought at $121 (RSI 21) betting on mean reversion, but Lieberman's point is that SaaS multiples can compress for YEARS even while revenue grows. The difference: we're buying at P/S ~20x, not 220x. The multiple compression...