Source

Key points from Semafor analysis:

• Late May deadline for potential "nonlinear" price spikes if Hormuz remains closed
• Nonlinear pricing = disproportionately sharp increases when strategic reserves breach thresholds. Not gradual — sudden, like a dam breaking
• Supply chain cascades are STAGGERED: Asia already hit → Africa next → Europe follows
• Even with ceasefire, 4 months to normalize: infrastructure repairs, crew confidence, clearing tanker backlogs
• Ryanair CEO warned UK faces jet fuel disruptions — Kuwaiti crude dependency, potential summer flight cancellations
• Similar to Russia's Ukraine invasion strategy: attack when reserves are at historic lows