Retail Scan
Retail Scan
Retail is splitting into two worlds. Value/defensive names (COST, WMT, TJX, TGT, YUM) are holding up with golden crosses and near-highs. Discretionary and home improvement (HD, SHOP, ANF, LULU, NKE) are under death-cross pressure with multi-month drawdowns. Last scan was 16 days ago (2026-04-10). The macro story is clear: trade-down and value spending is winning, aspirational spending is losing.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Split — value retail outperforming, discretionary breaking down |
| Key insight | COST at $1,011 golden cross, +6.6% above SMA200 — ultimate defensive retail |
| Red flags | SHOP -27% 3M death cross; LULU -25% 3M; NKE -31% 3M; ANF -10% 3M |
| Best technicals | TJX, COST, YUM all golden cross + near 52wk highs |
| XRT ETF | $83.24, RSI 55 — sector-wide slight recovery, -7% 3M |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | vs SMA200 | Status | Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | $1,011.15 | +0.7% | +3.7% | +3.6% | 56 | +6.6% | 🟢 Healthy | Warehouse club |
| TJX | $159.33 | +0.2% | +2.1% | +3.0% | 51 | +9.8% | 🟢 Healthy | Off-price |
| YUM | $161.43 | +3.1% | -0.2% | +3.2% | 57 | +7.4% | 🟢 Healthy | QSR |
| WMT | $124.57 | +0.2% | -0.9% | +4.0% | 50 | +13.5% | 🟢 Healthy | Mass market |
| TGT | $117.88 | -0.1% | +0.7% | +8.4% | 48 | +17.7% | 🟢 Healthy | Mass market |
| XRT | $83.24 | +2.4% | +4.1% | -7.0% | 55 | -0.7% | 🟡 Neutral | ETF |
| CROX | $102.32 | -6.2% | +27.8% | +21.8% | 61 | +17.1% | 🟢 Strong | Footwear |
| DECK | $108.53 | -1.2% | +8.5% | +7.1% | 55 | +4.9% | 🟢 Healthy | Footwear |
| SBUX | $97.48 | +3.3% | -0.4% | +7.6% | 58 | +9.8% | 🟢 Healthy | QSR |
| DPZ | $367.83 | -0.6% | +1.5% | -10.7% | 46 | -11.1% | 🟡 Neutral | QSR |
| CMG | $34.21 | -5.0% | +5.3% | -13.9% | 48 | -11.1% | 🟡 Neutral | Fast casual |
| MCD | $299.36 | -3.0% | -4.0% | -3.8% | 38 | -2.5% | 🟡 Neutral | QSR |
| LOW | $244.45 | -2.3% | +4.0% | -11.6% | 50 | -0.8% | 🟡 Neutral | Home improvement |
| HD | $335.89 | -2.9% | +1.0% | -12.5% | 46 | -8.7% | 🟡 Neutral | Home improvement |
| AS | $35.84 | -1.8% | +6.6% | -5.4% | 54 | -0.6% | 🟡 Neutral | Activewear |
| ANF | $87.10 | -6.6% | -1.6% | -10.3% | 41 | -6.2% | 🟡 Neutral | Specialty apparel |
| SHOP | $114.97 | -7.1% | -9.2% | -27.0% | 44 | -18.6% | 🔴 Breakdown | E-commerce platform |
| LULU | $143.80 | -12.9% | -9.4% | -25.4% | 34 | -21.5% | 🔴 Breakdown | Athletic apparel |
| NKE | $44.69 | -2.5% | -15.7% | -30.8% | 35 | -30.3% | 🔴 Breakdown | Legacy footwear |
Tier Analysis
Tier 1 — Value/Defensive Winners
COST $1,011.15 | RSI 56 | Golden Cross | +6.6% above SMA200 Costco is the ultimate trade-down beneficiary and it's showing in the data. Golden cross, all SMAs below price, -5% from 52-week high. +107% over 3 years, +186% over 5 years. This is a compounder you hold through macro uncertainty. No entry signal needed — hold.
TJX $159.33 | RSI 51 | Golden Cross | +10% above SMA200 TJ Maxx is the off-price thesis in perfect form. Golden cross, -4% from 52-week high, +115% over 3 years. Treasure hunt shopping is exactly the right consumer mood right now. Clean technicals, no drama.
WMT $124.57 | RSI 50 | Golden Cross | +13.5% above SMA200 Walmart has been the surprise outperformer — +35% 1 year, +113% 2 years. The business model transformation (ad revenue, health, delivery) is working. RSI 50 is neutral but structure is strong.
TGT $117.88 | RSI 48 | Golden Cross | +18% above SMA200 Target recovery is playing out — +32% 1 year, +8% 3 months. Golden cross confirmed. Completely different trajectory from 2 years ago. Near 52-week high (-6%). Watch for RSI move above 55 as confirmation.
YUM $161.43 | RSI 57 | Golden Cross | +7.4% above SMA200 Yum Brands (KFC/Pizza Hut/Taco Bell) is a quiet winner. +15% 1 year, golden cross, -4.7% from 52-week high. International exposure is an asset in this environment. Hold.
Tier 2 — Home Improvement (Macro Hostage)
HD $335.89 | RSI 46 | Death Cross | -8.7% below SMA200 Home Depot is stuck. Death cross, -12.5% 3M, -3.7% 1 year. Housing turnover remains suppressed (high mortgage rates mean nobody moves). RSI 46 — not oversold, not interesting. Wait for housing unlock catalyst.
LOW $244.45 | RSI 50 | Golden Cross | -0.8% below SMA200 Lowe's is in limbo. Positive: golden cross. Negative: -11.6% 3M, nearly flat vs SMA200. Same housing constraint as HD but slightly better technical setup. RSI 50 = no edge.
Tier 3 — Breakdown Names
SHOP $114.97 | RSI 44 | Death Cross | -18.6% below SMA200 Shopify is in structural correction. -27% in 3 months, death cross, -37% from 52-week high. The e-commerce platform was priced for acceleration that isn't materializing. RSI 44 is not oversold. No entry.
LULU / NKE — see consumer scan. Both in strong-down trends with death crosses. No buy.
ANF $87.10 | RSI 41 | Death Cross | -6.2% below SMA200 Abercrombie is rolling over after a multi-year recovery. -10.3% 3M, death cross forming. RSI 41 approaching watch territory but the brand momentum has clearly peaked. Wait for RSI <35.
Entry Zones
APPROACHING OVERSOLD (RSI 30-40) — Watch Closely
| Stock | Current | Zone | RSI | 30D Chg | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | $299.36 | <$290 | 38 ↓ | -4.0% | 📈 Accumulate | QSR defensive, -12% from high. Golden cross. Approaching entry. |
| LULU | $143.80 | <$135 | 34 ↓ | -9.4% | 🔍 Watch | Knife. Need RSI <28 + base. |
| NKE | $44.69 | <$42 | 35 ↓ | -15.7% | 🔍 Watch | Brand impaired. RSI approaching but falling. |
| ANF | $87.10 | <$82 | 41 ↓ | -1.6% | 🔍 Watch | RSI approaching 35. Death cross. Wait. |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | COST, TJX, WMT, TGT, YUM | Golden crosses, near-highs, value/defensive thesis intact |
| 🔒 HOLD | SBUX, CROX, DECK | Golden crosses, cultural thesis working |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | MCD | RSI 38, -12% from high, QSR defensive — approaching entry |
| 🔍 WATCH | LULU, NKE, ANF | Death crosses, approaching oversold — not yet |
| 🔍 WATCH | LOW | Golden cross but macro headwind; wait for housing data |
| ⚠️ AVOID | SHOP | -27% 3M, death cross, RSI 44 not oversold |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | HD | Death cross + housing lock-in — no catalyst |
What Changed vs 2026-04-10
| Stock | Then (est) | Now | Move | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | ~$980 | $1,011.15 | +3.2% | Golden cross holding |
| TJX | ~$156 | $159.33 | +2.1% | Near all-time high |
| SHOP | ~$125 | $114.97 | -8% | Continued breakdown |
| NKE | ~$53 | $44.69 | -15.7% 30D | Accelerating decline |
| LULU | ~$158 | $143.80 | -12.9% 7D | Waterfall selling |
| ANF | ~$93 | $87.10 | -6.6% 7D | Rolling over |
| TGT | ~$116 | $117.88 | +1.6% | Recovery continuing |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| WMT +113% in 2 years vs XRT +20% | Walmart's business model transformation is a multi-year compounder, not a grocery play |
| COST/TJX/TGT all golden cross near highs | Value retail is the flight to safety within consumer sector |
| HD/LOW golden cross divergence (LOW yes, HD no) | Lowe's better positioned if housing turns; HD more rate-sensitive |
Open Questions
No direct external sources are attached to this read.