Supply Chain Traces Scan
Supply Chain Traces Scan
Autonomous agent trace discoveries are performing well — AMKR, ASX, and KLIC at extreme overbought (RSI 83-86), while CRS, KMT, and ATEYY are in solid mid-run territory. WOLF (SiC/GaN enabler) is the most interesting new development: +25% this week after extended base. ALMTF and BESI still showing no data. The picks-and-shovels layer of the semiconductor supply chain is working.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 Extended — most names are mid-to-late run; selective trim warranted |
| Key insight | AMKR, ASX, KLIC all RSI 78-86 — packaging/assembly layer priced to perfection |
| Emerging setup | WOLF (SiC enabler) RSI 67 after +25% week — worth monitoring |
| Still valid entries | CRS, KMT at RSI 54-57 with clean trend |
| No data | ALMTF, BESI — cannot evaluate |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | vs SMA200 | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALMTF | N/A | — | — | — | — | — | — | ❌ No data |
| KMT | $39.20 | +0.93% | +7.78% | +14.39% | 57.3 | +36% | 🟡 Healthy | 📈 Accumulate |
| CRS | $427.48 | -4.15% | +5.12% | +22.76% | 54.7 | +35% | 🟡 Healthy | 📈 Accumulate |
| MP | $60.73 | -4.99% | +13.01% | -4.27% | 53.4 | -3% | 🟡 Weak-up | 🔍 Watch |
| TDY | $655.99 | +3.01% | +1.60% | +16.61% | 58.4 | +16% | 🟡 Healthy | 🔒 Hold |
| WOLF | $24.15 | +25.30% | +31.68% | +23.91% | 67.3 | N/A | 🟠 Near OB | 🔍 Watch |
| BESI | N/A | — | — | — | — | — | — | ❌ No data |
| ATEYY | $188.94 | +8.74% | +27.88% | +24.38% | 64.6 | +51% | 🟡 Healthy | 🔒 Hold |
| KLIC | $87.71 | +5.23% | +27.49% | +52.86% | 78.0 ↑ | +76% | 🔴 Overbought | ⚠️ Trim |
| AMKR | $78.10 | +13.94% | +56.42% | +55.30% | 83.7 ↑ | +105% | 🔴 Overbought | ⚠️ Trim |
| ASX | $32.00 | +9.07% | +42.86% | +61.37% | 85.7 ↑ | +97% | 🔴 Overbought | ⚠️ Trim |
Tier Analysis
Tier 1 — Extreme Overbought (Trim Now)
ASX ($32.00, RSI 86), AMKR ($78.10, RSI 84), KLIC ($87.71, RSI 78)
All three are in the chip packaging/assembly layer — the bottleneck the autonomous agents identified correctly. But RSI 78-86, 75-105% above SMA200, and 42-61% 3M gains = position full. These are trim candidates, not new entries. The thesis worked. Lock gains.
ASX (Advanced Semiconductor Engineering) is near its 52-week high (-0.96%) with RSI 86. This is the most extreme overbought. Trim aggressively.
AMKR (Amkor Technology) at RSI 84, +56% 30D. Packaging demand for AI chips is real but this is priced in.
KLIC (Kulicke & Soffa) at RSI 78, +27% 30D. Wire bonding equipment = earlier in the supply chain. Still trim territory.
Tier 2 — Strong Trend, Not Extended (Hold Core)
ATEYY ($188.94, RSI 65), WOLF ($24.15, RSI 67)
ATEYY (Advantest — semiconductor test equipment) is a clear hold. +28% 30D, RSI 65, 51% above SMA200 but not parabolic. Strong-up trend with golden cross. Test equipment is a recurring demand stream, not a one-time pop.
WOLF (Wolfspeed — SiC/GaN semiconductors) is the most interesting new development. +25% this week, +32% 30D. SiC is the substrate for next-gen power electronics (EVs, AI infrastructure power conversion). RSI 67 and no SMA200 data (too new/recently restructured) makes this speculative but worth watching. If thesis holds, it belongs in the power/AI infrastructure basket.
Tier 3 — Mid-Run, Best Add Zones (Within Position)
TDY ($655.99, RSI 58), KMT ($39.20, RSI 57), CRS ($427.48, RSI 55)
CRS (Carpenter Technology — specialty metals/alloys) is quietly one of the cleaner setups. RSI 55, +23% 3M, strong-up trend, golden cross, 35% above SMA200. The agent thesis here was AI-grade materials (high-performance alloys for server racks, thermal management). This is a compounder, not a trader.
KMT (Kennametal — cutting tools / industrial materials) similar setup: RSI 57, +14% 3M. Leveraged to industrial production cycle. Reasonable accumulation.
TDY (Teledyne — precision instruments) is the "boring but solid" trace discovery. RSI 58, +17% 3M, defense/aerospace measurement instruments. Non-consensus but durable.
Tier 4 — Mixed Signal (Wait)
MP ($60.73, RSI 53)
MP Materials (rare earth mining) is in a weak-up/death cross setup. +13% 30D but -4% 3M and -39% from 52wk high. The rare earth thesis is real (China export restrictions) but MP's execution has been spotty. Death cross present. Wait for trend clarification.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Current | Entry Zone | RSI Target | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRS | $427.48 | $400-415 | RSI 45-50 | Specialty alloys for AI thermal; thesis intact; -4% this week = opportunity |
| KMT | $39.20 | $36-38 | RSI 45-48 | Industrial materials cycle; clean setup |
| ATEYY | $188.94 | $170-180 | RSI 50-55 | Semiconductor test; pullback buy |
| TDY | $655.99 | $620-635 | RSI 48-52 | Precision instruments; defensive quality |
| WOLF | $24.15 | $20-22 | RSI 50-55 | SiC power semis; watch trend confirmation |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ TRIM 25-33% | ASX, AMKR, KLIC | RSI 78-86; 75-105% above SMA200; lock gains |
| 🔒 HOLD | ATEYY, TDY | Strong trend; not extended |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | CRS, KMT | Mid-run; pullback this week = entry window |
| 🔍 WATCH | WOLF, MP | Interesting thesis but need confirmation |
| ❌ NO DATA | ALMTF, BESI | Cannot evaluate |
What Changed vs 2026-04-10
| Factor | 2026-04-10 | 2026-04-26 | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMKR | Moderate run | RSI 84, +56% 30D | Now trim territory |
| ASX | Building | RSI 86 near 52wk high | Most extreme overbought |
| KLIC | Active | RSI 78, +53% 3M | Trim zone |
| WOLF | Low/base | +25% this week | New development — watch |
| CRS | Early | RSI 55, +23% 3M | Best value setup |
| MP | Cautious | Death cross present | Wait |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Packaging layer (AMKR, ASX, KLIC) outperformed everything | Agents identified the right bottleneck — chip assembly is the constraint, not fab |
| WOLF +25% in one week suggests SiC power semis are next | Power conversion for AI infrastructure is the next supply chain trace to run |
| CRS as quiet compounder | Specialty alloys for AI server thermal management is an underappreciated picks-and-shovels play |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| No data on ALMTF and BESI still blocking full picture | These should be fixed before next scan — find alternative tickers or delisted/OTC status |
Open Questions
- What happened to BESI? Is it delisted, OTC, or ADR not accessible via yfinance?
- WOLF — is the +25% week earnings-driven or speculation? Confirm before adding.
- Is the SiC/GaN supply chain trace worth running formally as a new autonomous research-trace?
No direct external sources are attached to this read.