๐Ÿ”ฌ Thesis Pulse โ€” 2026-04-29

Article Ticker Tape

Mid-flight review. Read this, pick 1-3 items, open a session to dig in. Pure aggregation โ€” no fresh scans, no LLM. The reasoning happens collaboratively.

๐Ÿ“Š At a glance

  • 8 in-flight conviction docs (HIGH/MEDIUM, no verdict yet)
  • 1 close-call FIZZLEDs (direction right, missed target)
  • 0 stale perspectives (last_refreshed >14d ago)
  • 5 held paper positions w/ thesis drift (0 closing, 5 resolved) ยท 64 orphaned (filtered by default)

๐ŸŸข Bucket 1 โ€” In-flight conviction docs (8)

Active theses with HIGH or MEDIUM conviction that haven't verdict-tagged yet.

Ticker Emitter Days Tier Status From entry To target To stop Source
LITE community:frank 29d HIGH (no targets) โ€” โ€” โ€” frank โ€” optical supercycle analysis
EOPSF community:grants37 20d HIGH (no targets) โ€” โ€” โ€” grants37 โ€” EOS drone laser analysis
HON full-scan 0d HIGH (no targets) โ€” โ€” โ€” April 26 full scan
ABBV full-scan 0d HIGH (no targets) โ€” โ€” โ€” April 26 full scan
JNJ full-scan 0d HIGH (no targets) โ€” โ€” โ€” April 26 full scan
GILD full-scan 0d MEDIUM (no targets) โ€” โ€” โ€” April 26 full scan
LHX full-scan 0d MEDIUM (no targets) โ€” โ€” โ€” April 26 full scan
GD full-scan 0d MEDIUM (no targets) โ€” โ€” โ€” April 26 full scan

๐Ÿค Bucket 2 โ€” Close-call FIZZLEDs (1)

Theses where direction was right (P&L โ‰ฅ +5%) but the target wasn't quite hit. Worth asking: was the target too aggressive, or is the catalyst still playing out?

Ticker Emitter Days held P&L at verdict Verdict price Nearest target Missed by Source
APD community:revan 45d +10.7% $303.35 $308.00 $4.65 (+1.5%) revan โ€” APD helium/Iran analysis

๐Ÿ•ฐ Bucket 3 โ€” Stale perspectives

All active perspectives refreshed within 14 days.

๐Ÿ“‚ Bucket 4 โ€” Held paper positions w/ thesis drift (5)

Held paper positions whose covering perspective is closing or resolved. The exit-check verdict is a static rule; thesis drift is the human-judgment override signal โ€” when a perspective dies, exit-check still runs on stale rules until the next full scan.

64 positions are orphaned (no covering perspective in ACTIVE.json) โ€” typically bench/momentum picks not tied to a thesis. Use --include-orphans to surface.

Persona Ticker Days held P&L Thesis Covering Exit verdict
claude-trader LLY 40d -3.3% ๐Ÿšซ resolved protein-economy TRIM
claude-momentum LLY 40d -3.3% ๐Ÿšซ resolved protein-economy TRIM
bench-signals LLY 40d -3.3% ๐Ÿšซ resolved protein-economy TRIM
yolo LLY 40d -3.3% ๐Ÿšซ resolved protein-economy TRIM
bench-signals BRBR 16d +12.8% ๐Ÿšซ resolved protein-economy TRIM

Action prompts

  • APD close-call: +10.7% P&L, missed $308.00 target by +1.5% โ€” re-emit with adjusted target, or thesis stalled?
  • LLY (claude-trader, 40d held, -3.3%) โ€” thesis resolved; exit-check says TRIM. Override exit rules or hold?
  • LLY (claude-momentum, 40d held, -3.3%) โ€” thesis resolved; exit-check says TRIM. Override exit rules or hold?
  • LLY (bench-signals, 40d held, -3.3%) โ€” thesis resolved; exit-check says TRIM. Override exit rules or hold?

Pure aggregation of existing thesis data โ€” no fresh scans, no LLM. Pick 1-3 items and dig in.