R17 strike day 0 gate prep — tape not yet available, operational gate proposed

Update

R17 strike day 0 gate prep — tape not yet available, operational gate proposed

  • Type: refresh (subtype: gate-prep + operational-definition-proposal)
  • event_id: 2026-05-20-memory-supercycle-r17-gate-prep
  • Source: R17 post-R16 research queue fanout — workflow/RUNS.md 2026-05-20 r17-post-r16-research-queue. Input: published/research-notes/2026-05-20-r17-memory-strike-day-zero-gate-prep.md. No fresh tape since R15; no fresh web verification.
  • Decision context: R15 publish-gate ("cohort breaks green") still held going into strike day 0 (2026-05-21 Korea morning = today PT evening). R17 ran pre-market 2026-05-20 PT — strike day 0 tape DOES NOT EXIST yet. Gate-prep cycle, not a verdict cycle.
  • Verdict — gate pre-defined; await tape; no decision possible today. assign-follow-up to SCANS for the 5/21 + 5/22 + 5/23 closes.
  • Operational gate definition (proposed; canonical at next README touch):
    • Cohort breaks green (publish trigger) = ALL of: cohort 5-day price ROC positive for ≥ 4 of 5 names (MU/SNDK/STX/WDC/HY9H.F); RSI ≥ 40 across ≥ 4 of 5 names; AT LEAST ONE of: TrendForce 2Q26 forecast unrevised through the green-break window OR confirmed Samsung 8-K-equivalent fab-output drop ≥ 3%.
    • Cohort breaks down (re-grade trigger) = ALL of: cohort 5-day price ROC < 0 for ≥ 4 of 5 names persisting through 2026-06-07 strike end; AT LEAST ONE of: TrendForce 2Q26 revised down OR hyperscaler memory-throttle commentary OR cohort earnings miss.
    • The structural-corroboration condition keeps price-action gates from publishing on a YTD-runner-bounce or invalidating on a price-only break.
  • Effect on thesis: HOLD — posture unchanged. Operational gate definition is an internal projection sharpening; not a thesis shift.
  • Watches unchanged (→ SCANS): strike day 0/1 cohort tape (5/21 + 5/22) is the cleanest near-term gate test; Suwon-injunction floor (5/21-5/23); TrendForce 5d watch (day 1); hyperscaler 7d watch (day 1); operational gate adoption at next README touch.
  • Per-ticker: no new tape; R15 reads carry.
4 events
DateTypeEvent
May 25 Deep DiveATEYY (Advantest, Layer-3 HBM test equipment) May 25 Deep DiveKLIC (Kulicke & Soffa, Layer-4 advanced packaging) May 26 Deep Dive$AEHR (Aehr Test Systems, wafer-level burn-in) May 26 InvestigationCPU Shortage Thesis — First-Principles Derivation

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