• Type: spark (subtype: birth) — active same-day
• Source: inputs/tweets/2026-03-24-kevinvestingyt-fly-3x-spacex-ipo-runup.md + web-verified IPO facts (filing 2026-05-20, debut 2026-06-12, $1.75T-$2T target, $40-80B raise, NASDAQ:SPCX, includes xAI from Feb 2026 ~$250B merger).

Shift: Catalyst surfaced via @KevInvestingYT March 24 tweet ($FLY 3x prediction on SpaceX IPO run-up — already 2x'd by May 24). Initial framing was "space-sector halo trade." User explicitly re-framed 2026-05-26: "I'm NOT TRADING IT, it's going to such so much $ from the market though so it will affect everything." Perspective birthed under the liquidity-event lens, not the trading lens.

Effect on projection: New active perspective spacex-ipo-liquidity-event. Three competing hypotheses, tracked in parallel — no pre-committed ranking:

• Hypothesis A (liquidity drain): $40-80B raise drains cash from existing positions; selling pressure on the most-overweight cohort (artificial-intelligence infrastructure).
• Hypothesis B (comp re-rating): SPCX-as-artificial-intelligence-infrastructure (via xAI merger) creates a new artificial-intelligence-infra comp; existing cohort multiples re-rate against it (up or down depending on SPCX pricing).
• Hypothesis C (halo only): Market is bigger than $40-80B can move structurally; only the space cohort runs on catch-up FOMO; artificial-intelligence cohort and broader market are unaffected. Aramco-2019 pattern, not FB / BABA / V.

Per-ticker direction (NOT a prediction — these are conditional outcomes by hypothesis):

We do not know which hypothesis wins. Genuine uncertainty across A / B / C and across the A+B / B+C pairings. The tape disambiguates. The point of the perspective is to have the framework ready when the signal arrives, not to pre-position.

User correction 2026-05-26: "they're all valid hypotheses though i have no idea what will happen" — implicit ranking in the v1 README was false precision. v2 strips the ranking and tracks the three in parallel with tape signatures for each.

Historical comp basis: FB 2012, BABA 2014, V 2008 — all "largest-ever-at-the-time" IPOs that tagged sentiment / cohort tops. Aramco 2019 is an outlier (Tadawul-listed, restricted foreign access — doesn't apply here). Pattern lean: SPCX may be a top-marker, not a buy catalyst, for the artificial-intelligence cohort.

Calendar locked:

• 2026-06-05 — T-7 pre-position read
• 2026-06-11 — T-1 final read
• 2026-06-12 — IPO debut (the event)
• 2026-06-13 to 2026-06-26 — two-week cohort drift (the real test)
• 2026-07-12 — T+30 lockup math (terms TBD from S-1)
• 2026-08-12 — 60-day retrospective close target

Open questions:

• S-1 lockup terms (90 day? 180 day? structured release?) — drives whether T+30 is a real sell-pressure event.
• Allocation structure — what fraction is new institutional cash vs. rotated capital? Affects the "what gets sold" magnitude.
• xAI revenue / cluster disclosure in the S-1 — first hard comp number for artificial-intelligence-frontier-lab valuation.
• Does Musk personally tweet through the IPO window (typical) or stay silent (mandated)? Tweet-tape volatility risk on the entire cohort.

Source quality note: Perspective is born from a strong macro signal (verified IPO facts) plus a thin source tweet (Kevin Maro, middle-bucket per reference_kevinvestingyt_middle_bucket.md). The tweet is the messenger, not the analysis. The analytical framework here is workspace-native (liquidity-event lens, historical-IPO-comp pattern, artificial-intelligence-cohort positioning awareness), not borrowed from Kevin.

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