Market Regime
Tech/growth melt-up with historic breadth expansion. Monster scan: 299 names (+97 from R30-A in one week, largest single-cycle jump on record). QQQ RSI 77.1, XLK RSI 80, SMH RSI 70.8 — AI supercycle at full steam. Memory blowoff: MU RSI 78, STX RSI 74.5, SNDK RSI 72. Cybersec parabola: CRWD RSI 84, PANW RSI 81, FTNT RSI 80, DDOG RSI 88, SNOW RSI 87. Volatility at historic floor: VIXY RSI 27.5, VXX RSI 27.7 — complacency extreme. Gold breaking down (RSI 44.6, -18.2% from ATH). Energy rolling over (USO -12.2% 30D, XLE RSI 41). Defensives abandoned. Crypto bear (BTC RSI 35.4, ETH RSI 31.5). BUY ZONES ARE SCARCE — do not force buys into a concentrated market.
Regime tag: strong-up-AI-blowoff / historic-breadth-expansion / vol-floor / crypto-bear / defensives-abandoned
Entry Zones
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25) — Capitulation Territory
| Ticker |
RSI |
Price |
vs SMA20 |
30D% |
Trend |
Action |
Notes |
| UI |
25.9 |
$583.86 |
-20.0% |
-42.2% |
— |
🔍 Research |
Ubiquiti Networks — deepest capitulation in full universe. -46.9% from ATH. Thesis check required before entry. Insider sell history (R30 flag). NOT golden without thesis verification. |
Oversold (RSI 25–30) — Strong Entry Zone
| Ticker |
RSI |
Price |
vs SMA20 |
30D% |
Trend |
Action |
Notes |
| WMT |
28.7 |
$115.75 |
-9.1% |
-12.1% |
weak-down |
✅ Buy Zone |
Quality defensive compounder. Golden cross intact. Bargain-bin top signal — only ticker passing strict RSI<30 + negative SMA20 filter. Real-money position (-9.6% P&L) still above $108.86 stop. Accumulate tranches. |
| ZTS |
25.4 |
$77.69 |
-9.2% |
-32.4% |
strong-down |
⛔ Avoid |
Zoetis -55% from ATH, death cross, -39.5% 3M. Structural collapse in animal health franchise. Oversold but falling knife. No entry until floor forms. |
| REGN |
27.3 |
$614.78 |
-8.9% |
-12.9% |
down |
🔍 Research |
Regeneron biotech — Dupixent pipeline intact. -25% from 52wk high. Quality large-cap pharma in capitulation. Death cross. Research catalyst first — R30 was ⛔ Avoid; verify if thesis cleared. |
| NKTR |
28.8 |
$64.88 |
-12.8% |
-23.7% |
weak-down |
⛔ Avoid |
Monster crasher — was +137% 3M in April, now -24% 30D. Death cross. Prior monster reversal = structural risk. Do not catch. |
| LI |
28.5 |
$15.01 |
-13.1% |
-15.8% |
strong-down |
⏳ Stage |
Li Auto Chinese EV — only genuine oversold signal in EV/clean energy scan. -53% from ATH, strong-down. High China macro risk. Stage only: RSI 25 or BYDDY confirmation first. |
| APD |
30.5 |
$278.62 |
-5.5% |
-7.1% |
weak-down |
📈 Accumulate |
Air Products & Chemicals — industrial gases + hydrogen thesis. Golden cross intact, quality compounder. RSI 30.5 = cleanest technical setup in chemicals. Accumulate in zone. |
| MDT |
30.5 |
$73.81 |
-4.3% |
-8.8% |
strong-down |
⚠️ Exit Review |
REAL MONEY — STOP BREACHED. 12 shares @ $97.49 avg, -24.3% P&L. Stop was $83; now $73.81 (-$9.19 through stop). Death cross, -24.2% 3M. RSI at oversold but structural bear. USER DECISION: exit / reset stop / thesis recheck. Do not add. |
Approaching Oversold (RSI 30–40) — Watch Closely
| Ticker |
RSI |
Price |
vs SMA20 |
30D% |
Trend |
Action |
Notes |
| COST |
34.1 |
$956.32 |
-6.6% |
-5.6% |
weak-down |
📈 Accumulate |
Costco quality compounder — golden cross intact, membership model resilient. Approaching oversold alongside WMT. Accumulate on weakness. Zone: $920-960. |
| CME |
33.5 |
$273.54 |
-5.3% |
-5.0% |
down |
📈 Accumulate |
Exchange monopoly — rate volatility tailwind. -16.9% from high, RSI 33.5. Quality infrastructure franchise. Zone: $260-275. |
| PEP |
34.6 |
$144.19 |
-4.3% |
-9.0% |
down |
📈 Accumulate |
PepsiCo brand/snack defensive — Frito-Lay moat. -15.9% from high, RSI 34.6. Pricing power intact. Zone: $140-145. |
| ETH-USD |
31.5 |
$2,010 |
-6.6% |
-10.8% |
strong-down |
⏳ Stage |
Approaching RSI 30 capitulation floor. -59.4% from high. Watch RSI 25 signal before entry. Not yet. |
| SBUX |
39.1 |
$99.16 |
-5.0% |
-5.3% |
strong-up |
📈 Accumulate |
Starbucks golden cross intact; new CEO turnaround thesis. Quality franchise on a real dip. Accumulate zone: <$102. R30 carry-forward active. |
| DOW |
32.5 |
$33.75 |
-10.2% |
-16.7% |
weak-down |
🔍 Research |
Commodity chemical — high dividend, golden cross. -21% from high. Tariff/China risk real. Verify before entry at RSI 30. |
| BTC-USD |
35.4 |
$73,401 |
-5.4% |
-3.1% |
strong-down |
🔍 Watch |
RSI 35 approaching oversold. -41.8% from 52wk high. Not yet at capitulation. Watch $70K support floor. |
| NEE |
35.5 |
$87.01 |
-5.4% |
-11.1% |
weak-down |
🔍 Watch |
NextEra — AI power demand thesis, golden cross barely intact. Approaching oversold. Watch RSI 30 for entry signal. Not yet. |
| GLD |
44.6 |
$417.12 |
-1.0% |
-1.5% |
weak-down |
📈 Accumulate |
Gold breaking down -18.2% from ATH. Golden cross intact above SMA200. Contrarian vs AI complacency. If stress isn't priced: this is the asymmetric buy. Zone: $410-420. |
| NVDA |
49.4 |
$211.14 |
-2.0% |
+5.8% |
strong-up |
📈 Accumulate |
KEY SIGNAL: NVDA lagging its own ecosystem while AMD/ARM/MRVL at RSI 70-78. RSI 49 is the cleanest AI infra entry this tape. Golden cross intact. Add on dips to SMA20 (~$215). NEW vs R30. |
| XLE |
41.2 |
$56.29 |
-3.3% |
-5.6% |
weak-down |
🔍 Watch |
Energy sector ETF approaching oversold. USO rolled hard -12.2% 30D. Producers lagging. Watch RSI 40 floor — catch-up trade or oil peak. |
| DPZ |
36.0 |
$310.58 |
-1.9% |
-8.5% |
strong-down |
🔍 Watch |
Domino's approaching oversold. -37.4% from ATH, death cross. Quality franchise but broken structure. Watch for RSI < 30 + stabilization before entry. |
| YUM |
37.2 |
$147.95 |
-2.8% |
-6.9% |
down |
🔍 Watch |
Yum Brands softening in restaurant cluster. -12.7% from ATH. Watch zone: RSI < 35. |
| URA |
46.5 |
$50.76 |
-3.0% |
-10.0% |
weak-down |
🔍 Watch |
Uranium ETF bouncing +3.5% 7D but -10% 30D. Golden cross still intact. AI power thesis long-term valid. Accumulate on further weakness below $48. |
| BYDDY |
34.7 |
$11.58 |
-6.0% |
-13.1% |
down |
🔍 Watch |
BYD ADR approaching oversold. Golden cross intact. China macro the swing factor. Watch alongside LI. |
Exit Alerts
Real-Money Position Alerts (yawnxyz-active)
GUARDRAIL: yawnxyz-active is a real account. Informational advisories only. User makes all decisions.
| Ticker |
Shares |
AvgCost |
CurPx |
P&L% |
Stop |
Stop Status |
Advisory |
| MDT |
12 |
$97.49 |
$73.81 |
-24.3% |
$83.00 |
🚨 BREACHED -$9.19 |
Strong-down, RSI 30.5, death cross, -24.2% 3M. Stop has been breached for weeks. Action required: (1) Exit and accept loss, (2) Reset stop to SMA-based $70-72, or (3) Full thesis recheck with conviction. At RSI 30.5 a bounce is possible but structural damage is severe. Lean toward exit. |
| VOO |
10 |
$628.94 |
$695.49 |
+10.6% |
— |
✅ OK |
RSI 74.1 — index overbought but hold; index core. |
| QQQM |
10 |
$247.00 |
$303.96 |
+23.1% |
— |
⚠️ Watch |
RSI 77.2 — market extended; do not add but hold; set trailing stop in mind. |
| IGV |
18 |
$83.06 |
$101.66 |
+22.4% |
— |
⚠️ Watch |
RSI 76.4 — SaaS/software ETF at overbought. Monitor for RSI rollover. |
| WCLD |
154 |
$27.71 |
$32.95 |
+18.9% |
$23.55 |
⚠️ Watch |
RSI 70.3 — cloud ETF at overbought. Stop well below at $23.55. Hold. |
| NET |
30 |
$177.38 |
$241.82 |
+36.3% |
$151.00 |
✅ OK |
Best position. RSI 63.7, golden cross, +18% 30D. Stop deep below. Hold. |
| AMZN |
35 |
$204.53 |
$270.64 |
+32.3% |
— |
✅ OK |
RSI 59.9, strong-up, golden cross. Core tech hold. AWS thesis intact. |
| WMT |
10 |
$128.07 |
$115.75 |
-9.6% |
$108.86 |
✅ Above Stop |
RSI 29 — in oversold entry zone (see entry zones above). Still above stop $108.86. |
| BTC / GBTC-mini |
25 |
$40.05 |
unresolved |
— |
$34.04 |
⚠️ Unresolved |
BTC RSI 35.4, $73,401. GBTC summary shows $57.02 (different instrument). Instrument still not reconciled. Likely breached $34.04 stop if tracking BTC-correlated. USER: resolve ticker and assess. |
Paper Position Alerts
| Ticker |
Alert |
RSI |
Action |
| BRBR |
-40%+ PnL, RSI 26 (R30) |
— |
Paper hold only; extreme capitulation but structural damage severe. Monitor for RSI floor. |
| LULU |
RSI 46, recovering |
45.9 |
Paper position improving but death cross. Small tranches only — cultural thesis intact. |
Price Alerts (Waiting for Entry)
| Ticker |
Alert Level |
Direction |
Thesis |
Carry Status |
| NVDA |
SMA20 ~$215 |
Watch for hold/bounce |
AI infrastructure laggard vs ecosystem |
🆕 NEW — Best AI entry this tape |
| MDT |
$73-75 |
Bounce watch |
RSI 30.5 oversold — BUT stop was $83 |
🚨 P0 USER DECISION required first |
| BTC-USD |
$70,000 |
Support |
Prior cycle high floor |
🔄 CARRY R30 |
| BTC-USD |
$77,500 (SMA20) |
Reclaim trigger |
Bull resumption signal |
🔄 CARRY R30 |
| ETH-USD |
RSI 25 |
Capitulation entry |
Deep oversold floor signal |
🔄 CARRY R30 — not yet at RSI 25 |
| GLD |
$410-420 |
Accumulate zone |
-18.2% from ATH; contrarian vs complacency |
🔄 CARRY R30 — Updated from $400 |
| GD |
<$340 (below SMA20) |
Accumulate |
Defense prime, strong-up, only clean defense setup |
🔄 CARRY R30 |
| URA |
<$48 (SMA200) |
Accumulate |
Uranium AI power thesis; golden cross |
🔄 CARRY R30 — Updated RSI 46.5 |
| COST |
$920-960 |
Accumulate |
Quality compounder near oversold |
🆕 NEW |
| REGN |
<$640 |
Research-then-entry |
RSI 27.3 capitulation — thesis verify first |
🆕 NEW |
| TSEM |
$245-260 |
Accumulate |
Optical supply chain cooled from RSI 71; best cohort risk/reward |
🆕 NEW |
| RTX |
$165-175 |
Waiting |
Defense — RSI 51, golden cross, -15% from high |
⏳ CARRY R30 |
| LHX |
$295-310 |
Waiting |
Defense — RSI 48, golden cross, -16% from high |
⏳ CARRY R30 |
Sector Rotation Signals
| Signal |
Trigger |
What It Means |
Status |
| AI/Semis blowoff |
Monster count +97 in one week (202→299) |
Late-cycle acceleration — take partial profits on >80 RSI names |
🔴 EXTREME |
| Defensives abandoned |
XLP RSI 43, XLU RSI 41, WMT RSI 29 |
Risk-ON fully on; oversold in WMT/COST = quality entry vs the flow |
🟠 ACTIVE |
| Vol floor |
VIXY RSI 27.5, VXX RSI 27.7, -57% from ATH |
Historic complacency; mean reversion potential high |
🔴 EXTREME |
| Gold breakdown |
GLD -14.9% 3M, -18.2% from ATH, RSI 44 |
"No fear" trade OR contrarian buy of the cycle |
🟡 WATCH |
| Crypto bear |
BTC RSI 35.4, ETH RSI 31.5, all alts below SMA200 |
Risk-off divergence from equity markets |
🔴 CONFIRMED |
| Miner divergence |
RIOT RSI 71, CLSK RSI 77 vs BTC RSI 35 |
Miners pricing BTC recovery that hasn't happened — watch for resolution |
🟡 WATCH |
| Energy rollover |
USO -12.2% 30D, XLE RSI 41 |
Geopolitical premium unwinding; soft demand or OPEC+ supply pressure |
🟠 ACTIVE |
| Memory blowoff |
MU RSI 78, STX RSI 74.5, SNDK RSI 72 |
Sector blowoff — no new positions; hold with trailing SMA20 stops |
🔴 EXTREME |
| NVDA lagging ecosystem |
NVDA RSI 49 vs AMD RSI 76 / ARM RSI 77.5 |
Best AI infra risk/reward entry in this tape |
🟢 BUY SIGNAL |
Insider Activity Summary
| Signal |
Stocks |
Implication |
| Cybersec insider selling |
CRWD (-$433M), PANW (-$1.7B) from R30 — still relevant |
Insiders selling into the RSI 80+ parabola — confirms trim thesis |
| DDOG insider selling |
-$586M from R30 |
RSI 88 + insider selling = highest trim/avoid signal in cloud |
| UI capitulation |
RSI 25.9, -20% from SMA20 |
Deep oversold, but prior R30 note flagged net insider SELLING (-$890K) — golden signal requires insider buy reversal |
| ZS post-earnings collapse |
-26.5% 7D, RSI 44.6 |
Earnings miss while peers rip — verify if thesis broken or isolated |
Pending Research Actions
| Action |
Source |
Priority |
Status |
| MDT real-money stop decision |
Holdings scan, MDT deep dive |
🚨 P0 |
USER must decide: exit / reset / thesis recheck. Stop $83 breached at $73.81 (-$9.19). |
| BTC / GBTC-mini ticker reconciliation |
Holdings scan |
🚨 P0 |
Instrument unresolved since R30. BTC RSI 35.4 $73,401. Stop was $34.04 equivalent. |
| REGN thesis verification |
Biotech scan |
🔴 High |
RSI 27.3 capitulation in quality pharma. Was ⛔ Avoid in R30. Verify Dupixent pipeline before reclassifying to buy. |
| UI thesis check |
Insider/tech scan |
🔴 High |
RSI 25.9, -42.2% 30D. Deepest capitulation. But R30 flagged net insider selling. Verify: hardware demand cycle or structural? |
| ZS post-earnings research |
AI/insider scan |
🔴 High |
-26.5% 7D. Cybersec peers at RSI 80+. Isolated miss or AI-native threat to the thesis? |
| NVDA vs AMD ecosystem divergence |
NVDA ecosystem scan |
🟠 Medium |
AMD RSI 76 vs NVDA RSI 49 — is GPU cycle peaking as custom ASICs (AMD/MRVL) take share? Research thesis delta. |
| PLAB photomask flash-crash |
Optical supply chain |
🟠 Medium |
RSI 28.9, -34.6% 30D. Photomask demand miss? Cohort first breakdown. Verify before entry. |
| Everpure (P) -14.7% 7D |
NVDA ecosystem / AI infra |
🟠 Medium |
fka PSTG. RSI held 52, up trend intact. Investigate catalyst for sharp 7D drop. |
| DELL AI server earnings |
Monster scan |
🟡 Low |
New monster entry: RSI 89, +101% 30D, +174% 3M. AI server demand materializing. Research the print. |
| GEV reversal to weak-down |
Energy candidates |
🟡 Low |
RSI 51→40, flipped weak-down -10.6% 30D. Grid bellwether reversing. AI power infrastructure thesis at risk? |
| Food-security reopen trigger check |
Food security scan |
🟡 Low |
MOS at $23.90 (trigger requires >$25); DBA at $27.25 (trigger requires >$28). Neither met — perspective stays closed. |
| Ledger import (real positions) |
Holdings scan |
🟡 Low |
Ledger still a template; 16 positions tracked in a markdown-only snapshot pending import. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| Monster breadth +97 in one week (202→299) |
Largest single-cycle expansion on record — confirms a bull expansion, not statistical noise; also marks late-cycle peak risk |
| NVDA RSI 49 while AMD RSI 76 / ARM RSI 77.5 |
The foundational AI chip is the cheapest name in its own ecosystem — rare and actionable entry |
| WMT RSI 28.7 — only ticker passing strict bargain-bin filter |
Market rally has cleared virtually all discounts; WMT is the singular quality defensive entry |
| VIXY/VXX RSI 27-28, -57% from ATH |
Historic complacency floor — tail risk of vol mean reversion is highest since 2021 |
| DDOG RSI 88 + insider selling |
Post-earnings re-rating at extreme overbought with insider confirms: trim signal, not new entry |
| Gold -18.2% from ATH while SPY RSI 74 |
Either complacency is correct (AI growth resolves all tail risks) or GLD is the contrarian trade of the year |
Carry-Forward Status (from R30 / 2026-05-23)
| Alert |
R30 Status |
R31 Status |
| MDT $83 stop |
🚨 BREACHED |
🚨 DEEPER — now $73.81 (-$9.19 below stop) |
| BTC GBTC-mini stop |
⚠️ Evolved |
⚠️ UNRESOLVED — instrument not reconciled |
| NVDA SMA20 pre-print |
🔄 Watch |
✅ POST-PRINT — RSI 49, best buy zone now active |
| Cybersec trim (FTNT/CRWD/PANW/DDOG) |
✂️ Trim before prints |
✅ PRINTS PAST — RSI 80-88 now; parabola fully extended; still trim signal |
| GLD $400 SMA200 |
🔄 Watch |
🔄 EVOLVED — GLD now $417 (+4.3% above old level); new zone $410-420 |
| WMT accumulate |
📈 Accumulate |
📈 DEEPENED — was RSI 34.1, now RSI 28.7; stronger signal |
| LULU paper |
📈 Accumulate carefully |
🔍 RSI 46 — cultural thesis watch; not yet in accumulate zone |
| MOS Stage-4 trigger |
🔄 Watch |
⛔ Below trigger ($23.90 vs $25 needed) — perspective stays closed |
| ETH RSI 25 floor |
👁 Watch RSI 25 |
🔍 RSI 31.5 — closer but not at 25 floor yet |
| BTC $70K support |
👁 Watch |
🔄 CARRY — RSI 35.4, still above $70K for now |
R31-A EOW. Sources: 29 scan files (market-pulse, consumer, retail, defensive, healthcare, bargain-bin, biotech, ev-clean-energy, food-security, crypto, nvda-ecosystem, optical-supply-chain, macro-commodities, defense-contractors, insider, geopolitical-risk, ai-scan, monster-scan, supply-chain-traces, tech-insider-buys, airlines, chemicals, cultural-thesis, cybersec, drone-defense, etf-universe, cloud-etfs, ai-infrastructure, travel-leisure) + candidate files (ai-infra, biotech, cloud-saas, consumer, crypto, energy, mag7, memory, retail, space, web-cloud) + holdings/2026-05-29-stocks.md + summaries/*.json validation (all prices confirmed 2026-05-29). Date: 2026-05-29.
Sources
Price, RSI and trend figures read from the desk's validated daily scan
summaries (summaries). No number in this note was
computed in prose.