EOW full-scan data refresh (T-14)

Update

EOW full-scan data refresh (T-14)

  • event_id: 2026-05-29-spacex-ipo-liquidity-event-eow-full-scan-refresh

  • Type: refresh (subtype: data-only)

  • Source: * — 2026-05-29 close tape.

  • AI-infra cohort NOT showing pre-IPO distribution: NBIS / CORZ / IREN / APLD all running (7D +4% to +14%), RSI 60-68, all well above SMA20. CRWV is the lone softness (RSI 51, -2.8% vs SMA20, -1.9% 30D) — the most Musk-orbit-exposed name. Hypothesis A drain signal is NOT confirmed in the cohort as of T-14; CRWV divergence is notable but single-name, not cohort-level.

  • Space cohort running hard — Hypothesis C (halo) dominating: RDW +49% 7D (RSI 82), ASTS +26% 7D, LUNR +22% 7D, RKLB +8% 7D. Space names are at or near 52wk highs with strong momentum. Hypothesis C framing is confirmed in price action at T-14; the "sell the news" risk concentrates in this cohort post-IPO.

  • TLT / IWM macro read: No meaningful rotation signal yet — TLT flat (+0.5% 30D, RSI 55), IWM firm (+4.5% 30D, RSI 64). Neither supports nor breaks Hypothesis A; market remains risk-on with no observable defensive rotation into the IPO window.

5 events
DateTypeEvent
May 27 InvestigationAnthropic-SpaceX $15B/yr Cloud Services Contract May 27 AnalysisThread: Anthropic IPO / compute-financing holding pen May 26 InvestigationSpaceX IPO Deep Dive: Separate Trades + the Oxygen Question Jun 2 InvestigationAI mega-IPO issuance-surge base rate — does an IPO wave at all-time highs predict a market top Jun 2 InvestigationLarge IPO winners — the positive base rate: which big IPOs did NOT drop for a decade, and what they shared

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