Open-items sweep (proteomics, SDGR, signal, parabola-verify, capacity)

Thesis

Open-items sweep (proteomics, SDGR, signal, parabola-verify, capacity)

Cleared the five flagged open items in one pass:

  1. Proteomics frontier added (roster 28→34): QSI/SEER/QTRX/LAB/ALMR/NAUT fetched+precomputed+verified. The washed-out speculative tail (QSI −59%, QTRX −57% off highs, micro-caps) — tracked as deep-value/optionality, not core. README L3b updated from "noted" to "added."
  2. SDGR deep dive built (2026-06-04-sdgr-deep-dive.md, conviction medium) — the quality leg of the app-layer trio: the ONLY AI-bio platform with a real recurring SOFTWARE moat (physics-based simulation licensed to pharma; up-to-$2.5B Novartis deal) + wholly-owned pipeline + equity-stake portfolio (co-founded Morphic→Lilly). EV ~$0.67B ($1.12B mcap − ~$0.45B cash, zero debt). Lumpy revenue + ~$150-200M/yr pipeline burn = the trade-off. ABCL=wait-to-add, GENB=venture starter, SDGR=hold-for-the-moat.
  3. XBI gate promoted to a first-class signal (2026-06-04-biotech-funding-gate, subtype regime, status dormant/armed) — trigger (XBI breakout + held IPO + CRO book-to-bill >1.2) / invalidation / calibration / state_log, informs: biotech-capital-cycle. This IS domino #1, now calibration-tracked per signal-as-first-class-event. Half-open at inception.
  4. BRKR/TXG parabolas verified — FUNDAMENTAL, not M&A/activist (web search): BRKR = Q1 beat + new AI mass-spec platforms + BofA PT $49→$65; TXG = Q1 beat + Atera spatial-biology launch (strong pre-orders) + MS/JPM PT ~$24→$32. Confirms the tools-side cycle is REAL (genuine beats across BRKR/TXG/ILMN), not froth — but both now priced (RSI 74/82). Domino board note flipped ⚠️→✅. MEDP Q2 print pinned ~late-Jul 2026 (Q1 was Apr 22) as the cleanest book-to-bill read (domino #3).
  5. Capacity hygiene: demoted war-ends-playbook active→monitoring (priority high→low) — executing the capacity-aware migration its own thesis flagged as pending; durable AI-supercycle signal lives on ai-power-bottleneck. Active count 11→10 (+2 monitoring). Still over the soft-cap 8, but the remaining 10 are all live; spacex (decays after 6/12) + gulf (after 9/30) are the natural near-term offsets — did NOT force-kill live theses to hit a number.

Lane is now: 1 perspective + 34-name watchlist + domino board + 1 tracked signal + 5 deep dives (ABCL/GENB/SDGR/MEDP/RGEN). Standout pick unchanged: MEDP.

🔄 2026-06-25 full-scan tape check: CONFIRMING / ratification gate near-firing — the laggard mega-caps the perspective flagged as the optionality are turning up: TMO RSI 64 (+13% 30D), DHR 68 (+12.6%), MEDP 76 (+21.7%), IQV 60 (+15.3%); TWST 78, RGEN 70, SDGR/ABCL strong-up. The named ratification gate (TMO/DHR/MEDP positive 3M + RSI>60 together) is near firing → upgrade candidate. Most-improved lane on the board. (Data tables spliced fresh to the 2026-06-25 close; full cross-scan read in 2026-06-25-full-scan-market-brief §6.)


🔄 2026-07-05 operating book: Demoted to bench (status → monitoring) in the operating-book cut (operating-book, ratified 2026-07-04) — model + promotion trigger kept (see watch_for), capture routing unchanged. Trigger firing = push to Jan for promotion review; slot 4 of the book is open.

5 events

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