Source

AI-bubble market-structure tells (perspective war-ends-playbook — the risk-on/AI-supercycle regime this all rides on):

• Concentration: semis = record 18% of S&P 500 mcap; tech = 37% (all-time high, > 2000 dot-com peak); NVDA = 8% of S&P, bigger than 7 of 11 sectors; NVDA 5Y CDS ~38bps, tighter than US sovereign (40bps).
• Froth: tech +42% in 2 months (largest in 24y, surpassing the 2000 +40%); S&P implied correlation record-low ~15% (extreme stock-pickers' regime); equal-weight/cap-weight ratio lowest since 2003.
• Single-names: MRVL +45%/2d on Jensen "next $1T co" + S&P 500 inclusion; HPE +33%, DELL +30% on AI earnings; AVGO −16% on an earnings miss (06-04 — first crack).
• Crypto/MSTR unwind (risk-off tell, pairs with the @orrdavid skeptic read): BTC −53% from Oct high (<$60K), ETH <$1,800, crypto −48% / ~$2.5T erased, levered liquidations $1.5–1.8B/day; $MSTR unrealized BTC loss −$12.7B + first BTC sale in 3 years.

Takeaway

From a 30-day @KobeissiLetter pull. Status: social-source claims — backdrop/structure read, not price-truth; our own tape lives in .

Read: the melt-up is historically concentrated and now showing first cracks (AVGO miss, crypto-proxy unwind). Regime-risk evidence for the risk-on playbook — watch concentration breaks and the crypto unwind as early de-risking signals, not yet a reversal call.