Kobeissi 30d oil-supply shock
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Kobeissi 30d oil-supply shock
· @KobeissiLetter
Source
Oil-supply / energy data points (perspective us-energy-dominance, which absorbed iran-war-oil):
- (05-27) Japan crude imports −59% MoM to 900K bpd after Hormuz closure (Japan >90% Mid-East-dependent); (06-03) India oil-product exports −31% YoY as refiners keep fuel home.
- (06-04) Venezuela crude exports +61% YoY to 1.25M bpd (7-year high), led by 558K bpd to the US — blockade-driven sourcing shift.
- Oil tape swung $87–95/bbl on Iran headlines (blockade on/off, US strikes, ceasefire MoU); (05-24) Kobeissi flags a "near-perfect oil↔CPI correlation," oil ~$100 avg since 03-06.
- (06-03) House voted 215–208 to restrict Trump's Iran-war powers; (05-31) Iran President Pezeshkian resignation reported.
Takeaway
From a 30-day @KobeissiLetter pull. Status: social-source claims — Iran-war event tape is news, NOT price-truth; verify events independently before any conclusion.
Why it matters: the blockade-as-leverage thesis is playing out in the physical flow data (Asian import collapse + Venezuela/US re-routing + sticky $90s oil feeding CPI). Confirms the energy-dominance frame; the war headlines themselves need independent verification per our rules.
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