Source

Altucher posts a reassurance chart for a scary tape: S&P 500 forward returns after every close-to-close VIX jump ≥30%, Jun 2016–Jun 2026 (23 events, FRED data). Headline: avg +2.66% / 21-of-23 positive at +1 month; the two losses were both Feb 2020 (COVID). His tweet text says "23 of 25" but his own chart says 21-of-23 — minor count mismatch, same narrative (two losses, both Feb 2020). Message: "when people are afraid they make bad decisions — do the opposite."

Takeaway

Real, checkable backtest (VIX/SPX prints match history: Mar 16 '20 VIX 82.69, Aug 5 '24 VIX 38.57, Apr '25 tariff-crash VIX 45). But oversold: (1) +1d and +1w are coin flips (+0.42%, 12/23 and 14/23) — the edge is only at ~1 month; (2) it measures vol change, not the absolute-level "VIX hits 30" rule (several events fired at VIX 15–21); (3) the 2016–2026 window is a secular bull that excludes 2008-style regimes where spikes preceded more downside; (4) tail-skewed — small wins vs two −15%/−24% losses; (5) overlapping events → effective N < 23.

Captured a...