event_id: 2026-06-06-gulf-infrastructure-strike-demote-to-monitoring

Type: arc-transition (active→monitoring; priority medium→low)

Source: Capacity-hygiene action accompanying the nuclear-fuel-cycle promotion (user: "lets promote to active"). ACTIVE was 10/8 over the editorial soft cap (nearline 6/3 + livestock 6/4 promoted without retiring — hygiene owed); one-in-one-out requires a demote. No new tape; this is a status/priority change, not a thesis re-verify (the 2026-06-03 re-verify stands).

Shift: Status active→monitoring, priority medium→low. The premise is unchanged and intact (Ras Laffan still shut, multi-year reduction); what changed is the active-trade designation. This scenario has had no current trade since the 2026-06-03 high→medium downgrade (all legs inverted), so it was the cleanest demote of the two carried capacity candidates. The other candidate, spacex-ipo-liquidity-event, was kept active — it is 6 days from its 2026-06-12 catalyst (peak relevance, live ai-mega-ipo-lane branch); demoting it now would be backwards. This mirrors the war-ends-playbook / gold-crash active→monitoring demotes from 6/3–6/4 (downgrade the no-current-trade lens, keep it as a monitored regime/scenario).

Effect on thesis: Kept as a monitored binary into the late-Aug / early-Sep SK-fab helium-stockpile-depletion window. relevance_until 2026-09-30 and the full 5-vector eyes-and-ears unwind-map watch_for retained (the monitoring guide). No tickers lost — the live Hormuz/oil expression continues on us-energy-dominance. Reopen→active on: a QatarEnergy Ras Laffan restart-clock catalyst, a fresh Hormuz/Barakah re-escalation, or the depletion binary coming into ~30-day range.

Per-ticker: unchanged from the 2026-06-03 re-verify (no new tape pulled this touch).