Risk-off: all major coins in strong-down trend with a 7d relief bounce that does not signal reversal — miners are the lone divergence, outperforming spot by a wide margin.

All nine coins remain in strong-down trends with no reversal signal. The 7d bounce (+6–13%) is relief within a 30d decline of -13% to -35%; it does not change the structural picture. BTC at $65.8K sits in the halving-cycle support zone per workspace cadence tracking, but RSI at 42 means the coin is not yet technically oversold — more room to fall before a mechanically meaningful bottom. ETH, SOL, XRP, LINK, and DOGE are all in the neutral RSI band (43–50), with vs-SMA20 readings that are flat to slightly positive — these are the stronger relative-strength names within a weak cohort.

ADA (-35% 30d, -41% 3m, -83% from 52wk high, vs SMA20 -10%) and AVAX (-26% 30d, -34% 3m, -81% from 52wk high, vs SMA20 -7%) are the two coins approaching oversold territory (RSI 33–34). However, in a strong-down trend, approaching oversold is not a buy signal — it is a falling-knife warning. Both names have accelerating underperformance vs BTC on a 3m basis, suggesting they carry additional idiosyncratic weakness beyond the broad drawdown. DOT is also deep (-80% from 52wk hi) with no catalyst to cite.

The 7d bounce was broad but not discriminating — meme assets (DOGE +12.5%, SOL +13%) bounced as hard as blue-chip crypto (BTC +6%), which typically signals a short-covering/liquidity relief rally rather than fundamental demand returning.

IBIT, GBTC, ETHE, and BITO are tracking spot almost exactly. RSI in the 39–41 band across all four, vs SMA20 between -4.5% and -5.1% — all four are sitting below their 20-day averages. There is no ETF premium or discount signal that diverges from spot, meaning institutional flow is not leading the bounce. The absence of a premium on IBIT (the dominant BTC spot ETF) is a meaningful non-confirmation: if institutional demand were returning ahead of spot, IBIT would be trading at or above NAV with tightening spreads. It is not. ETHE is the worst relative performer on a 3m basis (-23%), consistent with ETH's weaker 3m vs BTC.

ETF flows = risk-off confirmation. No flow signal changes the scan direction.

This tier contains the scan's only genuine divergence: miners are decoupled from spot in a significant way.

RIOT (+87% 3m, RSI 61, -5.2% from 52wk high) is within 6% of its 52-week high while BTC is 48% below its own — this is not a tracking relationship, it is a sector rotation into mining efficiency and energy-cost compression plays. CLSK (+71% 3m, RSI 59) and MARA (+56% 3m, RSI 57) show the same pattern. These names are being valued on hash-rate, energy cost per TH/s, and balance-sheet Bitcoin holdings — not on the spot price directly. BITQ (+28% 3m, RSI 55) is the crypto-equity basket ETF and is capturing the miner outperformance.

MSTR is the contrarian data point within equities: -26% 30d, -73% from 52wk high, RSI 38 — MicroStrategy's leveraged BTC exposure is working against it, amplifying the drawdown rather than providing miner-side operational leverage. COIN (-20% 3m) is better positioned than MSTR but still in strong-down territory; exchange revenue is volume-sensitive and the drawdown compresses trading activity.

Miner health is the single constructive signal in the scan. The compression relief thesis (post-halving inefficient miners washed out, survivors running leaner) is consistent with the data, though these names are also RSI 55–61 — not cheap entries today.

No entry zones are triggered on coins or ETFs. Summary:

The halving-cycle workspace note (BTC drawdown tracking into Q4 bottom) frames the current -48% from 52wk high as consistent with the drawdown leg before a Q4 recovery. If that cycle analog holds, the current 7d bounce fits the profile of an interim relief rally within a continuation lower, not the bottom. Pre-confirmation = gambling per workspace trading rules. No entries.

• 7d bounce materialized broadly (+6–13% across coins) but is not confirmed as a reversal — 30d still deeply negative across all coins and ETFs.
• Miner divergence is now statistically significant: RIOT near 52wk high while BTC is -48% from its own. This was an emerging observation; it is now a confirmed structural divergence worth tracking as a standalone signal.
• ADA and AVAX are the weakest relative performers on 3m, approaching but not crossing the RSI 30 oversold line. The falling-knife risk is higher than at last scan.
• MSTR continues to underperform: -26% 30d while COIN is only -11% — the leveraged BTC strategy is now a clear underperformer vs the exchange proxy.
• No new entry zones triggered. The halving-cycle drawdown-into-Q4-bottom thesis (workspace memory) remains the primary frame; no data point this scan contradicts it.
• ETF flows remain a non-confirmation: IBIT/GBTC/BITO RSI all ~40 with vs SMA20 negative — institutional demand is not leading the bounce.