Stub emitted: watchlist (cpu-shortage-supply-chain.json, 8 US-tradable/OTC carriers) + README + ACTIVE.json + this log. Closes the user-flagged P0 perspective-build (TASKS-RESEARCH.md → "Build cpu-shortage-supply-chain perspective stub"), originally targeted 2026-06-08 (~9d late).

Grounding: first-principles derivation 2026-05-26-cpu-shortage-thesis-first-principles-derivation (with its primary-source correction addendum). Mechanism cites primaries directly — SemiAnalysis "CPUs are Back", Microsoft Fairwater 48MW/295MW attach ratio, AMD/Intel sold-out-2026, node contention, 8–10wk EPYC lead times. The fabricated "training→inference workload-shift" framing from the first draft is dropped; the real driver is RL/agentic demand stacking on top of the baseline. Corroboration: Aschenbrenner Q1 2026 13F added AMD.

Data at birth (2026-06-17): cohort uniformly strong-up, RSI 51–67. 3M runs: IBIDF +251%, MRVL +231%, ALAB +197%, AMD +157%, CRDO +145%, AMKR +85%, ASX +73%, MCHP +46%. AMKR hottest near-term (RSI 67, +14.5% 7d). Read: substrate/interconnect/OSAT carriers have already re-rated — mid-move thesis, not pre-breakout. Not a buy call; the real book holds none of the cohort.

Three hypotheses tracked parallel (not ranked): (A) structural-secular 2–3yr run; (B) cyclical-tight, wins the move not the decade (cools on Intel 18A-P + TSMC N2/N3 end-2027); (C) captive absorption squeezes merchant CPU while substrate still wins. Common thread: substrate/OSAT wins in all three — merchant CPU (AMD/Intel) is the contested leg.

First real read: AMD + Intel Q2 prints (late July) — lead times, allocation language, price-hike confirmation. No catalyst fires before then.

🔄 2026-06-25 full-scan tape check: CONFIRMING (mid-move) — substrate/OSAT/CPU cohort strong-up: ALAB RSI 63 (+27% 30D), CRDO 60, AMD 58, MRVL 57 (+35% 30D), AMKR/ASX/IBIDF 60-66 near highs. "Substrate wins in all three hypotheses" intact; RSI 51-66 = mid-move, not extended past the 75 maturity watch. (Data tables spliced fresh to the 2026-06-25 close; full cross-scan read in 2026-06-25-full-scan-market-brief §6.)

🔄 2026-07-05 operating book: Demoted to bench (status → monitoring) in the operating-book cut (operating-book, ratified 2026-07-04) — model + promotion trigger kept (see watch_for), capture routing unchanged. Trigger firing = push to Jan for promotion review; slot 4 of the book is open.