Crypto deep in the drawdown-into-Q4-bottom: BTC $64.2K (RSI 39, -49% from high), ETH $1.74K (RSI 42, -65% from high), alts worse (ADA RSI 29.6, AVAX 30.7, DOGE 33.8); spot-BTC ETFs all collapse (IBIT/GBTC RSI 35); miners diverge UP (RIOT RSI 63, CLSK 58, MARA up) while coins bleed — miner relative strength is the lone green shoot.

Crypto trades weekends: coins/ETFs show 06-16 through 06-21 bars; all current. Crypto-equity miners (RIOT/CLSK/MARA/MSTR/COIN) are equities — Juneteenth 06-19 closed, latest bar 06-18 or earlier.

The standout structural signal: miners are rising while coins bleed. RIOT (RSI 63.3, +98.7% 3m, -5.3% from high), CLSK (RSI 58.2, +75% 3m), MARA (+56% 3m, +4.65% 7d) all strong-up — RIOT essentially at its 52wk high while BTC sits -49% from its own. This decoupling is consistent with miners re-rating on AI/HPC pivot optionality (compute hosting) rather than BTC price, and is the only constructive setup in the entire crypto complex. BITQ (crypto-equity ETF, RSI 52.8, strong-up) confirms the equity side is healthier than the coins. Holds, not chases — but the relative strength is real.

BTC ($64.2K, RSI 39.1, flat 7d, vs20 -0.7%) has stopped falling week-over-week and is sitting right on its 20DMA after a -17% month — a possible basing attempt, but still collapse-regime and -49% from high. ETH (+2.6% 7d, RSI 41.5, vs20 -0.1%) similar — flattening at the 20DMA. SOL (+13% 7d, 06-16 stale) and XRP (+7.8% 7d) had the strongest coin bounces, both back above their 20DMAs (vs20 +3.1% / +1.7%) — early relative strength within a brutal downtrend. Per the workspace BTC-halving-cycle stance, this tracks the expected drawdown-into-Q4-bottom; the n=3 cycle is fragile, so treat any bottom as a watch, not a confirmed entry.

The long tail is in freefall: ADA (RSI 29.6, -36% 30d, -84% from high), AVAX (RSI 30.7, -33.8% 30d, -82.6% from high), DOT (-80% from high), DOGE (-11.1% 7d, -72.7% from high). These are deep-oversold but with no trend, no catalyst, and -80%+ drawdowns. Classic falling knives — the workspace style explicitly avoids buying crushed "alternatives." MSTR (-26.3% 30d, RSI 38, vs20 -12.3%) and COIN (RSI 42.8, -63% from high) are the broken crypto-equity treasuries/exchanges; the +7.4% MSTR 7d bounce (06-16 stale) is dead-cat within a -73% drawdown.

Sub-30 RSI: ADA (29.6) — but -84% from high, no trend, falling knife. Don't buy.

Best risk/reward: the miner equities (RIOT/CLSK/MARA), not the coins — they offer crypto-adjacent exposure inside an actual uptrend, decoupled from BTC's -49% drawdown. Among coins, BTC/ETH at the 20DMA are the only "basing watch"; the alts are all knives.

• BTC & ETH flattened at the 20DMA — BTC flat 7d, ETH +2.6% 7d, both vs20 near zero after a -17/-19% month. Possible basing, still collapse-regime.
• SOL +13% 7d / XRP +7.8% 7d — strongest coin bounces, both reclaimed their 20DMAs; early relative strength in a downtrend.
• Miner divergence widened — RIOT (+98.7% 3m, at 52wk high), CLSK (+75% 3m), MARA (+56% 3m) all strong-up while coins bleed. The dominant signal of this scan.
• Alt-coins capitulating further — ADA RSI 29.6 (-36% 30d), AVAX 30.7 (-33.8% 30d); deep oversold, no trend.
• MSTR -26% 30d — the BTC-treasury proxy broke down hard (vs20 -12.3%); the +7.4% 7d is a stale dead-cat.

• Does the miner relative-strength (RIOT/CLSK) hold if BTC takes another leg down, or does it converge to the coins?
• Is BTC's flat week at the 20DMA the start of the cycle-bottom base, or a pause before the next drawdown leg? (Halving-cycle stance: n=3, fragile — watch, don't anchor.)