EOW rest week; AMKR at balance line; VWAP froth across cohort; Hyp C pattern nascent
Update
EOW rest week; AMKR at balance line; VWAP froth across cohort; Hyp C pattern nascent
- Type: refresh (subtype: eow-narrative-refresh)
- event_id:
2026-06-26-cpu-shortage-eow-vwap-froth-hyp-c-nascent - Source: 2026-06-26-ai-scan (AMD +119.4%, MRVL +85.6% vs VWAP); 2026-06-26-supply-chain-traces (AMKR +57.3%, ASX +95.1% vs VWAP); 2026-06-26-wfe-test-metrology (BESIY/AMKR balance-line context)
- Tape: Broad cohort rest — ALAB −6.7% / CRDO −10.4% / MRVL −8.2% / MCHP −8.8% / AMKR −6.1% 7D. RSI range 43–66 (MCHP weakest at 43.8, IBIDF strongest at 65.9). AMKR flat at SMA20 ($78.74) = balance-line read (RSI 50.7). IBIDF RSI 65.9, +109.3% vs VWAP. All names strong-up or uptrend, golden crosses intact.
- VWAP froth: cohort sits 57–119% above lifetime VWAP (ALAB +110%, IBIDF +109%, AMD +119%, MRVL +86%). RSI digestion (43–66) ≠ VWAP compression; the cohort is still parabolic on the VWAP metric. Entry gate = VWAP compression event, not RSI below 60.
- Hypothesis C nascent signal: MCHP (mature-node merchant comp) is the weakest name — RSI 43.8, weak-down, −6.6% vs SMA20 — while ABF substrate (IBIDF) and OSAT (AMKR/ASX) remain strong-up. One week of relative weakness in a single name is too thin to confirm; watch AMD vs IBIDF/AMKR split at the Q2 prints (late July) for the real disambiguation.
- Effect on thesis: no posture change; "substrate wins in all three hypotheses" intact. VWAP froth added to Watch for as the operative entry-sizing metric. MCHP weakness noted as a one-week pattern to monitor, not a confirmed Hyp C trigger. Next hard gate: AMD/Intel Q2 prints, late July 2026.
No direct external sources are attached to this read.