• Type: observation (subtype: window-close + confirms)
• event_id: 2026-06-26-spacex-ipo-t14-eow-scoring-window-close
• Source: 2026-06-26-etf-universe (etf-universe scan, fresh 2026-06-26); perspective data table as of 2026-06-25.

T+14 is the last day of the primary scoring window. The hypothesis scores are stable and the evidence is now multi-layer.

ETF bifurcation — the most compact single confirmation of C-leg: the etf-universe scan shows SPCH -41% 30d vs SSPC/SPCQ +43% 30d — an ~85 percentage-point divergence between ETFs tracking SpaceX halo exposure (SPCH, assembled around the pre-IPO space-adjacent universe) vs ETFs tracking SPCX itself (SSPC/SPCQ). This is the hypothesis scoring in ETF form: pure SpaceX-halo exposure collapsed; the issuer itself held its IPO bid. Money that rode the halo narrative into the ETF wrapper got hit as hard as the single-name halo names.

Single-name halo completion (from data table, 2026-06-25): FLY -57.9% 30d, RDW -54.5% 30d, LUNR -50.9% 30d, PL -46.4% 30d, ASTS -44.9% 30d, RKLB -43.7% 30d. The pre-IPO run-ups have fully reversed. IRDM is the one differentiated name — less directly competitive, still at only -15.1% 30d.

AI-infra cohort (NBIS/CORZ strong-up) held through the entire T+1-to-T+14 window. The drain-leg (Hypothesis A) did not fire at any point across the full window. INVERSION stands.

Scores at window close:

• Hypothesis A (drain): INVERTED — AI-infra cohort the firmest part of the market across 14 trading days. Not merely unconfirmed; directionally opposite to the predicted drain.
• Hypothesis B (comp re-rating): INDETERMINATE, favorable lean — cohort up with SPCX throughout, but no analyst-language confirmation available.
• Hypothesis C (halo, then air out): CONFIRMED, fully matured — single-name halo names -44% to -58% 30d; ETF form (SPCH -41%) also confirms.

Forward: T+30 (~July 12) lockup math check — is SPCX still above $175.50? If yes, bonus supply tranche fires at T+50 (Q2 earnings, early August). T+50 is the last live test for any late Hypothesis A read. The perspective is active through 2026-08-12 retrospective; the primary scoring phase is done.