Reason: IRDM is the one confirmed strong-up name in the group; RKLB caught a 7D bounce (+8.79%) inside a still-down 30D trend; LUNR/ASTS remain the deepest damage, still not basing.

Tape-read: The SpaceX-halo/commercial-space complex is stabilizing but not confirmed-based. IRDM remains the most-intact long trend: strong-up, RSI 59.9, +92.8% above SMA200, +11.11% 30D — the one name in the group not trading off the SpaceX-IPO-liquidity story. RKLB caught a +8.79% 7D bounce but is still weak-down/pullback, -18.09% 30D, and was -7.34% just on the latest session — a bounce inside a downtrend, not a reversal yet. LUNR remains the worst of the group (-59.6% off 52wk high, RSI 35.2) and ASTS is still in a down regime. Source: summaries/space.json (no dedicated 2026-07-07 scan for this watchlist).

• IRDM — PROMOTE/WATCH: RSI 59.9, strong-up, golden cross, +92.8% vs SMA200, +11.1% 30D — the cleanest structure in the theme, independent of the SpaceX-halo drawdown.
• RKLB — WATCH: RSI 43.7, weak-down/pullback, golden cross, +22.3% vs SMA200, +8.79% 7D bounce inside a -18.09% 30D trend — best-positioned of the volatile names but not yet a confirmed base.
• LUNR — PASS: RSI 35.2, pullback, -59.6% off 52wk high, -36.5% 30D — still the deepest damage in the group, no base yet.
• ASTS — PASS: RSI 46.6, down regime, -39.8% off 52wk high, -12.4% 30D — structurally still falling.

Lead pick: IRDM — the only name actually trending up, unconnected to the SpaceX-IPO halo drawdown hitting the rest of the group. RKLB is the watch: the first name likely to confirm an all-clear if its 7D bounce holds above SMA20, but not there yet.