Source: View source · Wonderful at a Fair Price · web

Why it's worth your time

The best thing in this week's sweep, and it reframes the memory thesis. Two tells, both from primary sources: (1) SK Hynix's CEO says the shortage lasts beyond 2030 — while raising a record $26.5B whose prospectus points the money at NEW FABS. Scarcity raises price, price funds capacity, capacity ends scarcity. (2) Micron's take-or-pay deals carry a CEILING at current-quarter prices, not just a floor, covering ~40% of revenue through 2030 — i.e. at the top of the best pricing environment ever, Micron capped its own upside for five years to buy protection. NVDA/TSMC/ASML never had to. Plus the number that matters: Micron's DRAM revenue +67% QoQ on low-single-digit bit growth — price did everything. Read it against our memory-supercycle thesis; it is the strongest bear case we have seen and it is a mechanism argument, not a tape argument.